On Tuesday at 4 p.m., hundreds of NFL players will see their contracts expire. Among those, a couple dozen will quickly begin filtering through several lucrative offers that promise millions in guaranteed salary. Several dozen more will receive offers that they’ll be hard-pressed to turn down, perhaps including some guaranteed money, a few years of base salary and some enticing bonuses they feel they have a good chance of reaching.
But, this being the NFL, the majority of players will be staring at the phone, hoping it rings; hoping their careers aren’t over; hoping for a one-year, prove-it deal that can boost their market value.
The league’s complex salary cap forces teams to make every dollar count—especially when that dollar is guaranteed—and punishes them severely for big deals that don’t end up working out. So despite the extra $10 million in cap space created by the raising of the cap, it’s still very much a buyer’s market for all but the most elite talent.
With that in mind, delve into our complete look at who’s got money to burn and who they’re ready to throw it at. Below, Sportsnet NFL experts Jeff Simmons and Geoff Lowe break down every team’s cap space, plus potential cuts and free-agent acquisitions. Take a trip through the eight divisions and you’ll be as prepared as you can possibly be for when the market opens.
Before we get to that, though, there are three simple rules you should hope your team keeps in mind. Remember these. They’ll be broken several times this week.
1. Consider the context. Eric Decker looked like a stud wide receiver last season—but he did it with an all-time great throwing him the ball, an uber-athletic No. 1 wideout drawing coverage across from him, a likely future hall of famer working in the slot and one of the league’s best young pass-catching tight ends demanding coverage as well. Decker’s not terrible, but he is a perfect example of Rule 1, and teams need to remember: The guys who looked great next to all-world talent aren’t always guys who will make your team’s mediocre players look great in turn.
2. If you can make them prove it, do it. The truly elite players have no interest in one-year deals. But the guys who want the world to know how good they really are just might. Yes, like Michael Bennett in Seattle last season, a free agent on a one-year deal could come in, set himself above the pack and then depart for greener pastures. But so what? Your team still got a great year at a decent price. The road to 2-14 is paved with multi-year deals for guys you hoped would make that next step. The road to the Super Bowl is paved with one-year deals for guys who know they’re a Pro Bowl season away from the really big money.
3. If he’s not a game changer, just relax. There’s a lot of pressure to come out swinging when the bell rings. But with the exception of landing the very big fish, the best moves are made in the days—and even better, weeks and months—after the opening of free agency. With hundreds of players looking for deals, and each of them offering different skills and different fits depending on the makeup of your team, most wise GMs slow down and find the right player, not the guy who looked great on a great line (see Rule 1) or the guy with the name that’ll make headlines and pacify fans. Free agency opened last year on Mar. 12. Almost three months later, after doing their homework, the Baltimore Ravens signed Daryl Smith to an affordable, one-year deal (see Rule 2). The Ravens made sure Smith would mesh, and he did—stepping into Ray Lewis’ cleats and playing all but two defensive snaps while leading the team with 123 total tackles. Patience, patience, patience.
Now, onto the divisions, we’ll tackle the AFC today and the NFC tomorrow.
AFC
Geoff Lowe looks at the AFC East, where the Jets will be players and the Bills need to hang on to a valuable piece.
Jeff Simmons looks at the AFC South, where the Colts have money to spend and would like to find another weapon for Andrew Luck.
Lowe looks at the AFC North, where the Bengals are trying to keep their team together, the Browns are ready to build and the Ravens are hunting for a receiver.
Simmons looks at the AFC West, where the Raiders have more money—and less talent—than anyone in football.
NFC
Lowe covers the NFC North, where the Lions need help in the secondary and someone to pair with Calvin Johnson, while the Vikings delve into a major rebuild.
Simmons takes on the NFC West, the best division in football and still with room—and cap space!—left to improve.
Lowe looks at the NFC East, where every team has room to grow except the Cowboys, who are desperately close to the salary cap and may have to waive a star.
Simmons looks at the NFC South, where Tampa is the team most in need of a rebuild, but will have to act ruthlessly to find the cap space they need.
