“If you’re gonna play the sport, you gotta know you’re gonna get banged up,” said Toronto mayor Rob Ford, talking about concussions in football, not about his career at city hall.
The most notorious politician in North America was on a Washington, DC radio show Thursday morning touting his love of football and picking NFL games against the spread.
“I just analyze games,” the mayor told the hosts, saying he watches everything from high school to college to the NFL. “I’m an absolute football fanatic.”
He picked all the games, but only had time—in between dodging questions about police wiretaps, crack cocaine and his political future—to explain his reasoning behind six of them.
We figured we might as well put those six picks to the test. If Ford’s as much of an “obsessive” as he claims, well, it’s a real success he can tout during his re-election bid. If not…well, he cannot comment on picks he never made or do not exist. Which is exactly what we’ll say if he beats us.
Chiefs at Redskins (+3.5)
Ford’s take: “I’m taking Washington at home. I’m really worried about Griffin’s knee…they should get him healed up. But Washington’s tough at home, they’re getting 3.5 points, I’ll take Washington.”
Really, Rob? Washington is actually 2-4 at home this season, including a seven-point loss to the 5-7 Giants just last week. Ford doesn’t mention the Chiefs, but it’s worth noting that after dropping three games in a row to divisional foes—including two games to the Broncos to fall out of the AFC West lead—Tamba Hali and company might be out for blood. Washington is not a good football team. We’ll take Kansas City.
Colts at Bengals (-5.5)
Ford’s take: “That’s gonna be too close. I think it’s gonna be a field goal game. Cincy’s good at home but you know what? I’ll take Indy with 5.5. Give me Indy.”
Really, Rob? The Colts are a mess—and as much as we love Andrew Luck, he’s looked lost without Reggie Wayne to secure those third-down passes. Rob’s right that 5.5 points is a lot to ask of Andy Dalton, but the Colts played at home last week and barely beat a Titans team that isn’t on the Bengals level, and the last time the Colts went on the road against a fierce defence, they were blown out by the Arizona Cardinals. We can’t trust the Colts until we see some stability. Sorry Rob, we’ll take Cincinnati.
Seahawks at 49ers (-2.5)
Ford’s take: “(The Seahawks) played Monday night, so it’s gonna be a short week for them. I’ll take San Francisco at home. Seattle’s got (the division) wrapped up. I don’t even know if they’ll be playing all their starters.…when San Francisco turns it on they’re good, so I’ll take San Francisco.”
Really, Rob? The 49ers have come alive lately, it’s true, and Seattle won’t be quite as rested—but the Seahawks have been lively all year. They’re the best team in football and, unfortunately for the mayor, they don’t actually have the NFC West sewn up yet. In fact, this is the game that would do it for them. There’s no way Pete Carroll will be resting his starters and though we expect a tight, low-scoring game that could go either way, we can’t in good conscience pick Colin Kaepernick, who has struggled at times this year, against a defence that just neutralized Drew Brees. We’ll take Seattle.
Lions at Eagles (-2.5)
Ford’s take: “Philly’s red hot. They’re at home. Detroit plays good at home but on the road I don’t see it. I’ll take Philly.”
Really, Rob? He’s right. Philly is on a roll and the Lions are extremely unreliable week to week. We’d expect this to be a back and forth game with Jim Schwartz’s crew finding—as is their specialty—a new way to lose. Philadelphia is the right pick.
Titans at Broncos (-12.5)
Ford’s take: “Denver’s a good team and they’re good at home. I just think 12 is too much. They might win by nine or 10 but that’s too many points to give.”
Really, Rob? The mayor has a point. It’s actually been six weeks since the Broncos won by more than 10 points. Of course, they’ve also faced some tough opponents in that span. This is a hard one to call—we’d like to take Peyton Manning’s quest for the record books over Ryan Fitzpatrick’s attempt to remain a relevant NFL quarterback, but a 13-point win against a quality Titans defence is asking a lot. We’ll take Tennessee, but feel bad about it right until it’s over.
Cowboys at Bears (pick ’em)
Ford’s take: “It’s cold in Chicago and it’s hard to play outside when you’re a dome team I find. I’ll take Chicago at home for sure.”
Really, Rob? For all his obsessive football analysis, the mayor has a tendency to fall back on clichés—short weeks, tough at home, cold weather, etc. That’s not always a bad strategy, but you’ve also got to look at how the teams match up. In this case, a Bears defence that just allowed Matt Cassel to lead a Vikings comeback will have to try to stop Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, Jason Witten and Terrance Williams from picking them apart. Without Charles Tillman, there’s nobody in the Bears secondary who has a prayer against Dez. Dallas should have too much firepower.
And in case you were wondering how Rob Ford typically does with his picks in the City Hall pool, well…
https://twitter.com/jpboutros/status/408635835027050496
