In sports, as in life, when we are faced with difficult questions it is in our nature to seek explanations that confirm what we already know.
It’s a very dangerous habit, one that stunts intellectual curiosity and breeds warped logic, but because it makes us feel warm and fuzzy inside, we do it anyway. So, when faced with the question of what’s happening to Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson, it’s not surprising the conversation the follows a predictable pattern.
Wilson is coming off a five-interception performance against the Green Bay Packers and in his last three games his numbers have been downright ugly:
| Completions | Attempts | Completion% | Yards/Game | Yards/Attempt | TD | Interceptions | Passer Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 108 | 60.2 | 222.7 | 6.2 | 2 | 8 | 53.3 |
For a quarterback who’s been nothing but outstanding since he set foot on an NFL field, this is by far the worst stretch of his career. However, because of what we know about Wilson’s greatness the prevailing inclination is to blame the Seahawks’ supporting cast.
Seattle’s offensive line is notoriously underfunded and relatively ineffectual. Their skill players aren’t big-name stars. That makes it easy to throw the responsibility on them and claim that Wilson has been asked to do too much because the talent isn’t there around him. It’s an easy argument to make, but it has a couple of gaping holes.
For one, the Seahawks offensive line has been a problem area all year while Wilson’s issues have only cropped up recently. This is not a strong starting five, but there are worse units in football. And since the installation of raw-but-athletic rookie George Fant at left tackle the situation has been getting better, not worse.
It’s also easy to point to the Seahawks’ dwindling running game as a cause of Wilson’s poor play, especially in light of Marshawn Lynch’s off-season retirement. Seattle has failed to run the ball like they have in the past under Pete Carroll, which in turn renders the play-action passing game less effective.
That’s a moth-eaten line of reasoning because the Seahawks’ run game is actually on the ascent thanks in part to the return of Thomas Rawls. Since the second-year rusher made his way back to the lineup in Week 11, Seattle’s running game has looked a little different.
| Time Period | Rushing Yards | Yards Per Game | Yards Per Carry |
|---|---|---|---|
| First nine games | 699 | 77.7 | 3.27 |
| Last four games | 655 | 163.8 | 6.12 |
While the recent numbers are inflated by Wilson’s increased scrambling and a 75-yard run from Tyler Lockett, the idea that the running game is to blame for the quarterback’s recent struggles holds about as much water as a leaky thimble.
Rawls isn’t the sole reason that things are turning around on the ground in Seattle, but he does bring a rare combination of burst and wiggle with a bruiser’s mentality that was solely lacking with Christine Michael in the backfield.
There’s a reason the 23-year-old led the league in yards per carry last season, and he’s put up a healthy 5.06 mark in the last four weeks.
If Wilson’s recent poor stretch can’t directly be explained by his offensive line or the running game, the next place to dump the blame would be with his receivers. While his group of pass catchers is not elite, they are fine, and more importantly they are the same guys he’s succeeded with in the past.
Doug Baldwin’s touchdowns are down, but he’s increased his catch rate, receptions per game and yards per game. Jimmy Graham has improved significantly in his second year in Seattle, and Lockett is getting healthier and healthier as the season progresses.
Two of Wilson’s interceptions in Green Bay were at least partially receiver error. But the fifth-year pivot has largely himself to blame—he made several unforgivable and uncharacteristic errors, such as rolling left and trying to throw against the grain to the right looking for a big play to Baldwin.
Earlier in the game he rifled one right into Morgan Burnett’s breadbasket:
Yes, Wilson failed to lead his receiver, and Burnett would have jumped the route for the pick whether Graham kept his feet or not.
To make matters worse, early in the game he overthrew both Baldwin and Graham on sure touchdowns that could have changed the complexion of the contest.
The types of mistakes Wilson is making right now are unusual to the point of being bizarre. He’s an elite quarterback who’s only gotten stronger physically as the season has worn on. Right now he’s simply not a good workman.
With the Seahawks virtual locks to win a weak NFC West and host a playoff game, getting Wilson to the point where he’s firing on all cylinders is more important than it is urgent. Even so, at some point they’re going to need the guy who’s as unstoppable as he is unflappable: vintage Russell Wilson.
For whatever reason, that guy’s gone missing lately, and it’s not exactly clear where the Seahawks are going to find him.