What a difference a year can make.
Just 52 weeks ago, with head coach Sean Payton suspended and watching the games from his couch, the New Orleans Saints were sporting a 4-5 record and in the midst of one of the worst defensive seasons the NFL has ever seen.
The Atlanta Falcons, on the other hand, were well in control of locking up the NFC South division with a 9-1 record behind Matt Ryan and one of the league’s best passing games.
Eleven weeks into the 2013 season, the Falcons-thanks to an unfathomable amount of injuries and horrid play on defencee — sit at 2-8 and are on their way to one of the worst seasons in franchise history. The Saints, meanwhile, have Payton back on the sidelines, are a drastically improved defensive unit and sit atop the division.
But Drew Brees and the Saints are far from a guarantee to win the NFC South. Hot on their tail are Cam Newton and the streaking Carolina Panthers, who are coming off a huge win over the New England Patriots and sit just one game behind the Saints for the division lead.
Heading into Atlanta on Thursday night, New Orleans has lost their last two away from the Superdome. With four of their last six games on the road and two games against the surging Panthers coming up, every win is crucial for Payton’s squad, especially against a divisional opponent.
One slip up and the Saints could lose the division and, more importantly, a shot at home-field advantage in the post-season.
STAT PACK
Brees-ing past the Falcons
Drew Brees, who leads the NFL with almost 37,000 yards and 270 touchdown passes since joining New Orleans, has torched the Falcons in his time with the Saints.
Brees is 12-3 against the Falcons since 2006, which includes 10 300-yard passing games and a quarterback rating over 100 in eight of those contests.
Running game grounding the Falcons
Matt Ryan and the Falcons have had to deal with plenty of injuries to the receiving corps, including the loss of Julio Jones for the season and a very limited Roddy White, who combined to account for 17 touchdown receptions last season.
But it’s the ground game which has failed to step up in place of the depleted pass attack that has hurt Atlanta the most. Behind the tamest three-headed monster in all of football, the Falcons are ranked 31st in total rushing yards (731), 26th in rushing touchdowns (four) and dead last in rushing attempts (185).
FANTASY TIPS
Start ‘Em
Shane Vereen, RB, NE: Vereen made his return to the Patriots last week against the Panthers and, while he didn’t play a huge role, had eight catches for 65 yards and a rush for seven. Vereen will most likely by even more involved in the offensive game plan Sunday night as the Pats offence will look to keep up with Peyton Manning and the Broncos.
Rueben Randle, WR, NYG: Quietly, Randle has been one of the best value receivers in fantasy football this year. He has scored touchdowns in five of his last six contests. Randle may not catch a lot of balls (averaging three catches over his last four games) but he’s been a consistent red zone threat for the Giants. With the rate he’s been scoring at and a match-up against the Cowboys, be comfortable with Randle as a WR3 in all formats.
Rob Housler, TE, ARI: With two top TEs hobbled (see below) Carson Palmer’s safety valve is quickly gaining appeal. He won’t light up the sky, but after struggling with injuries and inconsistency, Housler has quietly found a rhythm. He’s been targeted at least five times in four of his last five games (a season-high nine last week, which he turned into six grabs for 70 yards) and should be available on the waiver wire in most leagues
Coby Fleener, TE, IND: Speaking of tight ends who are finding their comfort level, Fleener is less likely to be available in your league, but is an elite option this week if you can nab him. The Cardinals are the worst team in the NFL at defending the tight end and Fleener has been blocking less and catching more since the Colts lost Reggie Wayne to a knee injury. With Patrick Peterson likely to be all over TY Hilton, Fleener could reap the benefits of being Andrew Luck’s top option.
Sit ‘Em
Reggie Bush, RB, DET: After an explosive start to the 2013 season, Reggie Bush has slowed up significantly and, to make matters worse, looks to be in Jim Schwartz’s dog house after coughing up two lost fumbles in the last three games. Bush’s matchup isn’t great either, as the Lions take on a revitalized Buccaneers squad that has given up just 154 rushing yards in its last two games.
Trent Richardson, RB, IND: How can fantasy owners continue to count on Richardson? Since coming to Indianapolis, he’s exceeded 60 yards just once and has not reached the end zone since Week 4. His carries have been declining over the past six weeks (he’s averaged just seven the last three games) and he’s watched Donald Brown take the majority of Indianapolis’ red zone looks. It’s hard to sit a player as talented as Richardson but he offers next to no fantasy value at this point.
Julius Thomas and Jordan Reed, TEs, DEN and WAS: Two of the most pleasant surprises in all of fantasy, this duo rose from their beginnings as late-round or free-agent acquisitions to become every-week starts. So Thomas’ knee injury and Reed’s concussion aren’t welcome news. Making matters worse, they both play night games, on Sunday and Monday, respectively
