The San Francisco 49ers are back in the Super Bowl for the first time since 2012 and seeking the franchise’s sixth Super Bowl title. If they win, they’ll tie the new England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers for the most Super Bowl victories ever.
The 2019 Niners are a remarkable story, as they’re just the third team to reach Super Bowl the year after a four-win season. In fact, the 49ers had four straight years with 10 or more losses before their fortunes turned.
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They aren’t the favourites Sunday in Miami, but it would be wise to bet on the Niners. Here are five reasons why San Francisco will be victorious at Super Bowl LIV.
Experience
The 49ers have eight players with a combined 10 Super Bowl appearances, as Emmanuel Sanders and Richard Sherman have both played in the big game twice. The Chiefs just have two players with experience in the NFL championship game – Terrell Suggs and Stefen Wisniewski.
The benefit of the experience isn’t about the football, it’s handling all the distractions and the rhythm of a Super Bowl week.
Jimmy Garoppolo is better than you think
Garoppolo isn’t as good as Patrick Mahomes but that doesn’t mean he’s not a strength for the 49ers. Jimmy G. is the fourth Niners quarterback to lead the team to the Super Bowl, and he didn’t ride coattails to get there.
Garoppolo finished just shy of 4,000 passing yards in the regular season. His 208 playoff passing yards are fewest entering a Super Bowl since Jim Kelly in 1992, but that’s more because passing wasn’t a necessity rather than Garoppolo being incapable.
Compared to Mahomes, Garoppolo more than holds his own in a lot of categories. This season Garoppolo was ranked fifth in completion percentage to Mahomes’ 11th, he ranked third in yards per attempt to Mahomes’ fourth, and was tied for fifth in passing TDs in comparison to Mahomes, who was tied for eighth. (It should be noted, Mahomes was limited to two fewer games than Garoppolo due to injury.)
Garoppolo has really played his best football and separated himself when the 49ers have been trailing this season. Garoppolo has a 72 total QBR, 9.1 yards per attempt and 11-3 TD-to-interception ratio when trailing. As a reference, Mahomes has an 88 total QBR, 7.7 yards per attempts and 13-2 TD-to-interception ratio when trailing.
Many have cited the Chiefs’ explosive offence that has averaged 29.8 points this post-season as the reason they’ll win. With Garoppolo under centre, the 49ers are averaging 30.2 points in the playoffs.
Long story short, those who believe the 49ers can’t win due to that quarterback are sadly mistaken. If the Chiefs over-play the run and force Garoppolo to try and beat them, he just might do it.
Dominant Run Game
Don’t be mistaken, though: the 49ers are a running team.
San Francisco has rushed the ball on 74.8 per cent of plays this post-season for 71 per cent of their yards and six TDs. That’s the third-highest rush percentage entering the Super Bowl, behind the 1985 Patriots (75 per cent) and 1973 Dolphins (80.2 per cent).
When a team runs the ball that often that well, it can stay on schedule offensively and keep its defence rested and off the field.
Stingy Pass Defence
Mahomes might be the NFL’s best passer, but he’ll be operating against the league’s best pass defence on Sunday.
San Francisco gave up just 169 pass yards per game (first in the NFL), 5.9 yards per attempt (first in the NFL), a 43 Total QBR (second in the NFL), a 33 per cent third-down rate (tied for second) and just 281.8 yards per game (second in the NFL). Only Drew Brees was able to throw for more than two touchdowns against the 49ers this season.
The Niners pass defence is so good because of their ability to play zone almost exclusively. Mahomes loves to kill zone defence, but that’s the 49ers strength.
The 49ers’ zone defence usage is 64 per cent, second highest in the league. Why? Because it’s suffocating. Opposing quarterbacks’ yards per attempt against San Francisco’s zone is just 5.7 (first in the NFL), while racking up 30 sacks (second), resulting in a total QBR of just 33 (fourth).
The Niners are not going to play press man coverage. They are going to play a three-deep zone with great vision, which will limit the big plays the Chiefs usually thrive on.
Special teams
This is more about the Chiefs than the 49ers.
Kansas City has had kicks blocked in big games this year against the New England Patriots and Houston Texans. On the flip side, the Niners have their best athletes playing specials. Raheem Mosert didn’t just rush for 200-plus yards and four TDs in the NFC conference championship, he’s also one of the best special teams players in the league.
In big games where field position and momentum matters, it’s often a play or two on special teams that tips the scales.
