Then there were four.
The NFL’s conference championship games kick off Sunday afternoon with a place in Super Bowl LIV on the line.
In the AFC, the New England Patriots will not play in the conference’s title game for the first time since 2010-11 (!) as the Kansas City Chiefs host the cinderella Tennessee Titans. In the NFC, the Green Bay Packers travel to San Francisco where Aaron Rodgers will attempt to beat his childhood team to advance to his second Super Bowl.
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Which teams will come out on top on Sunday? Here are our picks against the spread:
TENNESSEE TITANS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-7)
The Titans head to Arrowhead with a chance for a third straight upset in these playoffs, but their AFC title matchup is going to be the stiffest test yet as Patrick Mahomes and a Chiefs offence looks like it’s hitting its stride at the perfect time.
The speed and dynamism of the K.C. offence against the power and physicality of Tennessee means there are going to be a ton of fascinating matchups in this game, but only one matchup matters in determining the outcome of this spread: Derrick Henry and the Titans offensive line against the Chiefs defence.
When these two teams met back in Week 10, King Henry did exactly what he’s been doing in this post-season – No. 22 carried the ball 23 times for 188 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
And he did it against a healthy Chiefs defence. But this Sunday, Pro Bowler Chris Jones, arguably the Chiefs’ most important defensive player, is questionable with a calf injury after missing the divisional round. That has the potential to be a game-altering absence, especially against the run.
If Henry is able to find the same success on Sunday he had in Week 10, and that he’s had over the last two games, the Titans will be very much in this game.
One thing we might see in Sunday’s game we haven’t seen yet from the Titans in the playoffs is a much more active role for Ryan Tannehill. The 31-year-old has completed just 15 passes for 160 yards through two games, but he was playing at a high level in the regular season.
Tannehill didn’t just manage games for the Titans during the team’s dramatic turnaround from 2-4 disappointment to AFC title contender, he was aggressive and had quarterbacked one of the league’s best downfield passing games.
We’d bet that we’ll see more of regular-season Tannehill for the first time in January because of the quarterback leading the opposing offence.
Fresh off a comeback for the ages, Mahomes has been out of this world in three career post-season games: Playoff Patrick Mahomes has thrown for nearly 900 yards, eight touchdowns to zero interceptions, sports a QB rating of 113.2, averages 8.36 yards per attempt and the Chiefs haven’t scored less than 31 in any of the three contests, which included dropping 51 on Houston in basically two quarters.
THE PICK: TITANS (+7)
Due to Mahomes’ playoffs prowess, the Chiefs pull this game out, but the Titans won’t go down without a fight (we expect a couple of Derrick Henry-powered haymakers) so the pick is Tennessee to cover plus-seven.
GREEN BAY PACKERS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-7.5)
While many will point to the Week 12 shellacking as reason to go with the 49ers to cover in this game, it’s the underwhelming way Green Bay closed out last Sunday’s game against the Seattle Seahawks that’s fuelling this pick.
The Packers were in complete control of that game at half, up 21-3, and led by 18 points with less than a minute left in the third. But the Seahawks dominated the second half: Seattle controlled second-half possession, scored three straight TD drives and the game essentially came down to the final plays.
A game Green Bay should’ve finished off comfortably ended in nail-biting fashion.
Aaron Rodgers' last 5 playoff losses all came to teams he also lost to that regular season:
– 2016 NFC Championship at ATL
– 2015 NFC Divisional at ARI
– 2014 NFC Championship at SEA
– 2013 NFC Wild Card vs SF
– 2012 NFC Divisional at SFThe @49ers beat Rodgers 37-8 in Week 12.
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) January 16, 2020
On the other sideline, the 49ers boast the depth and playmaking ability on both sides of the ball to win this game in multiple ways. As we saw last week when the Niners ran the ball a whopping 47 times and held the Vikings to just 147 total yards, San Francisco can smother opponents. But we’ve also seen Kyle Shanahan’s team go toe-to-toe in shootouts – their 48-46 win over the Saints in New Orleans being the most notable.
These 49ers teams can win in many different ways, and have what it takes to win a title.
In terms of matchups, the NFC title game could, like the AFC title game, come down to one that played a big role in the first game this season between these two teams. Can the Packers, who have been one of the league’s best teams in pass protection, fare better against the 49ers defensive line, a unit that ravaged Rodgers in their first meeting at the end of November.
That performance proved to be the exception to the rule for the Packers offensive line. How will they handle the Niners’ front seven in the rematch?
THE PICK: 49ERS (-7.5)
By no means is another incredibly lop-sided result like the one we saw in Week 12 expected on Sunday, but it would not be surprising to see the Niners, who are as healthy as they’ve been all season, win this game by 10 points or a pair of TDs.
