Sportsnet’s NFL Power Rankings return for the final edition of the 2019 season, but this time they’re a bit different.
Rather than rank every team from best to worst like we did throughout the regular season and playoffs to this point (where’s the fun in ranking two teams?), we’ve picked out the five most important matchups for Super Bowl LIV and ranked each based on the impact they’ll have on Sunday’s game in Miami.
One note: we’ve kept these to on-field matchups only, excluding the chess matches between opposing coaches – although with Andy Reid, Kyle Shanahan, Eric Bieniemy, Robert Saleh and Steve Spagnuolo calling the shots, they’re bound to be thrilling showdowns.
With that said, let’s get to it.
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5) JIMMY GAROPPOLO VS. CHIEFS SECONDARY
The problem with two weeks of Super Bowl buildup is that there are always storylines that are beaten to death, and since the NFC title game it’s been Jimmy G.’s passing … or lack thereof.
Garoppolo has completed just 17 passes this post-season (last among playoff QBs with at least five attempts), thrown for just 208 yards (second-last among playoff QBs with at least five attempts) and has a 83.6 rating. He also has just one touchdown pass and threw a pretty bad interception in the divisional round.
But the idea that Garoppolo can’t get it done with his arm is a bit ludicrous. Less than two months ago he threw four touchdowns on nearly 350 yards in New Orleans during a wild 48-46 win over the Saints that included a game-winning drive. Jimmy G. can win games with his arm.
But given what we’ve seen transpire over the two Niners post-season games, what San Francisco does in the pass game will be a fascinating development. We can’t envision a scenario where Garoppolo won’t be forced to answer some Patrick Mahomes magic, and with options like Emmanuel Sanders, Deebo Samuel and literally Pro Football Focus’s best NFL player in George Kittle at his disposal, Garoppolo needs to show he can quarterback in the playoffs with the training wheels off.
That won’t come easy against a Tyrann Mathieu-led Chiefs secondary that features three good cornerbacks in Charvarius Ward, Bashaud Breeland and Kendall Fuller. And while impressive rookie safety Juan Thornhill is out with a season-ending injury, backup Daniel Sorensen has filled in with impact.
If the 49ers can find the same success on the ground and on defence as they have in the first two post-season games, this matchup could be less of a factor. But with Mahomes on the opposite sideline, we imagine the 49ers will need their $137.5-million quarterback to step up at some point in Miami.
4) CHIEFS RECEIVERS VS. 49ERS SECONDARY
This is a mouth-watering matchup for every football fan: a Chiefs wide receiver group that is basically a track team, plus arguably the best pass-catching tight end in the game, versus still-dominant-after-a-decade Richard Sherman and the NFL’s second-ranked pass defence (as per Football Outsider’s DVOA).
The Chiefs have Tyreek Hill, who might be the game’s fastest man; Sammy Watkins, who has put together a pair of huge games in these playoffs; rookie speedster and Pro Bowl returner Mecole Hardman; and the man George Kittle said is the biggest red-zone threat in the NFL in Travis Kelce. (Find that interview.)
Shut down one, and Mahomes has at least two or three more legit options to throw the ball to.
Sherman, Emmanuel Moseley, Jimmie Ward and company have been a shutdown unit in 2019 despite dealing with injuries throughout the season, but what the Niners secondary specializes in – and what makes this matchup so intriguing – is shutting down the deep ball, something the Chiefs love to throw.
3) 49ERS DEFENSIVE LINE VS. CHIEFS OFFENSIVE LINE
If you’ve followed football at all closely over the last four months, you’ve heard about the 49ers defensive line.
But if you’re just getting caught up in time for the Super Bowl, here’s the skinny: the Niners’ defensive front features five first-round picks, is as deep as any defensive line in the game, and the results this season have reflected it: their 48 sacks were tied for fifth-most, they hurried opposing QBs on a league-leading 14.6 per cent of dropbacks and pressured opposing QBs on 28.7 per cent of dropbacks, second-best in the NFL in 2019.
Now, with rookie sensation Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner and Dee Ford (a former Chief who is widely blamed for last season’s AFC title loss) all healthy, this unit has been wreaking havoc so far in these playoffs. Ford, who missed five games this season with injury, has been especially important to the group’s success this season.
But don’t sleep on the Chiefs offensive line, a group that often gets overlooked when talking about Andy Reid’s offence because of the performances from Mahomes. Kansas City’s offensive line had a dominant season in pass protection, and have been even better in that regard since Stefen Wisniewski took over at left guard in Week 16, according to Next Gen Stats.
And that’s why this matchup will go such a long way in determining the outcome of the game on Sunday: if the Chiefs can keep Mahomes from getting hurried the same way they’ve done over the last few weeks, No. 15 will be hard to stop. If Mahomes is under pressure from that chaos-causing defensive line, however, it’ll be a much different story.
2) 49ERS RUN GAME VS. CHIEFS FRONT SEVEN
We got a full dose of Chiefs front-seven talk in the lead-up to Kansas City’s AFC clash with the human-wrecking ball known as Derrick Henry, and the pre-game diagnosis had a lot of questions about Steve Spagnulo’s defence.
How can the Chiefs, who gave up the seventh-most rushing yards this season, hope to stop No. 22? Do they even stand a chance without a fully-fit Chris Jones? Will bad defence doom this team for a second straight season?
K.C.’s defence answered all of those questions resoundingly, holding Henry to less than 70 yards rushing for the first time since Week 9 and the Titans to less than 120 yards on the ground for the first time since Week 8. And now the best player in K.C.’s front seven, the aforementioned Chris Jones, has had two weeks to rest.
But the 49ers offer a much different challenge than the Titans. Not only is Kyle Shanahan devoted to the run game in a way we haven’t seen in some time – the 49ers have run the ball 89 times in the last two games to just 27 passes – but San Francisco boasts three legit options in the backfield who can burn a defence in Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida. The Niners also have two of the best non-offensive lineman blockers in the league in Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk. Oh, and they’re offensive line is great. And Shanahan loves to get rookie Deebo Samuel in on the run game.
San Francisco are running the ball as well as any team in the game has all season long and, for the second game in a row, the Chiefs are tasked with slowing down a team that has been feasting against opponents in the ground game.
1) PATRICK MAHOMES VS. 49ERS DEFENCE
When it comes to Super Bowl LIV matchups, there probably isn’t one juicier than this one. It features Mahomes and the NFL’s second-ranked passing offence against a fully healthy 49ers defence with a ton of talent at all three levels.
We specify Mahomes against the 49ers’ entire defence, rather than just the secondary or defensive line, because if the Chiefs are going to lift the Lombardi on Sunday Mahomes will have to find a way to beat this ferocious San Francisco unit at every level.
He’ll have to avoid the rush of arguably the most dangerous defensive line in the league, find a way to deceive one of the NFL’s best linebacker trios (specifically in pass coverage), and then beat a secondary, led by Sherman, ranked second this past season behind only the Patriots, according to DVOA.
Mahomes is having an incredible post-season so far – one for the ages, according to Pro Football Focus – but the 2018 MVP is facing what is likely the stiffest test of his career this Sunday in Miami, and he’ll have to be perfect to bring an NFL championship back to Kansas City.
