It was rumoured all the way back in September, but it’s still odd to see it happen. Tom Brady has blessed sports fans and talk-show hosts across the world with some non-Covid-19 news: He’s leaving the New England Patriots.
Here’s everything you need to know on the biggest NFL news to drop in a long time.
Reaction:
This just doesn’t happen. Quarterbacks on championship contenders don’t hit free agency, especially when their team doesn’t have a ready-made replacement.
But, and it should go without saying, Brady isn’t just any quarterback. He’s the greatest of all time. His 20 seasons with one team only trails Jason Hanson of the Detroit Lion’s at 21 for most ever.
To put it in perspective: In 20 seasons with the Patriots, Brady was a six-time Super Bowl winner, a four-time Super Bowl MVP, a 14-time Pro Bowler, a five-time All Pro, and a three-time NFL MVP. He appeared in nine Super Bowls, won 17 AFC East titles. Brady is second all-time in passing yards and passing TDs, and has won 77 per cent of the games he started.
His departure from the ecosystem that helped produce all of that is shocking. That said, it’s also just as shocking that his last pass as a Patriot was a pick six to lose a playoff game at home.
This was personal.
This is Tom Brady’s first foray into free agency, and he made it to the open market because he didn’t want to return. He set up his contract to void this off-season. He told Jim Gray that he was open minded to exploring other opportunities.
He was a fixture in New England, but the writing was on the wall.
And not only did Brady leave — there was no negotiation to have him stay.
When great players leave franchises, it’s normally due to personality issues — not performance issues. We saw that with Deandre Hopkins on Monday, and the same is the case for Tom Brady on Tuesday. We know that to be true because neither the team nor the player has a better alternative option.
Money matters.
Don’t underestimate the fiscal side of this. Brady signed seven different contracts in his career with the Patriots. None with an average per year over $23 million. Never was he the highest-paid quarterback in the league. The way the Patriots’ cap is structured, that would have likely remained the case.
Did the Patriots make the right decision?
Many will look at this and say the Patriots should have never let it get to this point — that they should have paid Brady his market value throughout his prime so he felt appreciated. That may have kept him in town, but it doesn’t mean it would have been prudent.
Since the turn of the century, the NFL’s top-paid QB in any given season has never won the Super Bowl. Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers got paid after they won. Both have never even been back to the Super Bowl since.
Brady has the most wins by a quarterback over the last four seasons with 47. He made $67.8 million in that span.
Russell Wilson won 40 games during that period and was paid $110.4 million.
Drew Brees won 39 games and was paid $94.5 million.
Putting aside what happened today for a second (and how the Patriots will replace him — see below for more on that): New England got great return on investment. They got Brady’s best years at an optimal price, and won more often than many thought possible.
Where does Brady go next?
This story isn’t over yet. We know he’s not going back to New England, but that doesn’t clear up where he’ll play next year.
What we do know is both the Los Angeles Chargers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are very interested.
Despite the fact that Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn loves Tyrod Taylor, the Chargers need a reason for people in Los Angeles to come and watch them play. Could Brady follow the lead of LeBron James and migrate to Hollywood to write the last chapter of his athletic career while writing the first chapter of his life away from the game?
The Las Vegas Raiders have also been a rumoured destination, with Dana White even applying some recruiting pressure. Derek Carr has just $2.9 million in guaranteed money remaining on his contract. The Raiders just signed Marcus Mariota in an effort to improve their QB room. However, Mariota is 29-32 in 61 career starts, his presence wouldn’t preclude Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock from going after the GOAT.
All that said, the team that would stand to benefit the most from Brady is Tampa Bay. Brady’s personal performance also stands to benefit the most from being a Buc.
Jameis Winston made history being the first QB to throw 30 TDs and 30 interceptions. Since he came in the league, he has 23 more interceptions than anyone in the NFL. Winston is 28-42 in 70 career starts.
On the contrary, Brady threw interceptions on just over one percent of his passes last year.
Tampa Bay had nine games last year decided by seven points or less. If they’d just had an above-replacement-level QB, they would likely have been a playoff team.
Bruce Arians has worked magic with some of the best QBs to ever do it. Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Palmer all had some of their best success with Arians as their play caller. Brady would also have Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, two 1,000-yard receivers, at his disposal.
Brady’s receivers dropped 24 passes last season, a figure that tied for fourth most in the league. Remember the sideline tantrums at his coordinators, the frustration with his receivers’ inability to separate or even run the right route? Brady will have those moments fresh in his mind when he sees the offensive talent he’d be surrounded by in Tampa.
Jason Licht was a scout with the Patriots who was high on Brady when they drafted Brady with the 199th pick on 200 draft. Licht is now the Buccaneers GM. Add in the fact that Florida has no state income tax and Tampa Bay seems mighty appealing.
Covid-19 means added risk.
Given the Covid-19 restrictions, Brady can’t exactly fly across the country and meet staffs and take physicals. No, he’ll be making this legacy-altering decision largely by FaceTime or Skype. Which again underscores the risk he’s undertaking by not returning to the place he knows.
Tom Brady is a perfectionist and came from the most structured football program of our lifetime. And given the state of the sports world, we likely won’t have any off-season workouts until June at the earliest. He’ll have no understanding of the culture of his new team and what their standards are. Plus, he’ll have to learn a new offence, build chemistry with a new play caller and work with new teammates.
That level of disruption is unheard of. When Peyton Manning went to the Broncos, he went saying he’d put in his own offence. Tom Brady won’t have that luxury.
How do the Patriots replace him?
The only other QBs the Patriots have on the roster are Jarrett Stidham and Cody Kessler. They quickly could find themselves going from perennial Super Bowl contenders to out of the post-season if they don’t fill their QB void in a big way.
Things aren’t off to a good start on that front, though. As of this afternoon, Teddy Bridgewater is reportedly off the market.
The #Panthers are finalizing a deal with QB Teddy Bridgewater to be their starting QB, sources say. New OC Joe Brady gets a new QB in Teddy B. There is a basic agreement.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 17, 2020
If he’s healthy, Cam Newton via trade is an intriguing option. Newton is under contract through 2020 with a $21-million cap hit. Newton has an eight-game losing streak dating back to 2018 but has the highest ceiling of anybody New England could get, and that’s including drafting a QB at the end of the first round of the draft.
Andy Dalton and Nick Foles are also options via trade, but the Chicago Bears are apparently interested in both.
Is Tom Brady still good?
New England has a long road ahead without Brady, but that doesn’t mean they weren’t going to struggle with him. Any team thinking that Brady is a fix-all isn’t paying attention to where his numbers are trending at the age of 42. The most alarming stat is the 3.3 yards per attempt under pressure in 2019, which was last in the NFL. Brady has never dealt well with pressure — no QB really does — but at this stage in his career having a clean pocket is not preferred — it’s paramount.
In 2019, Brady’s TD percentage of 3.9 per cent was his worst ever. His pass-TD total of 24 was his worst since 2003. His completion percentage of 61 per cent was his worst since 2013.
His 53.7 total QBR was his worst since the metric began in 2006. His play is descending — not ascending — and he now will be asked to perform in a new offence on an inferior team.
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