As we enter the NFL conference championships this Sunday, I wanted to take a look back at the Fantasy Football season that was. So many of us do countless hours of preparation for August fantasy league drafts, and I always find it interesting to compare projections to what actually happened.
There are always surprises, pleasant and otherwise, that spring up. Below are the pre-season rankings for every position group, followed by the final standings.
Projected Top-5 Fantasy Quarterbacks
1. Patrick Mahomes – Chiefs
2. Matt Ryan – Falcons
3. Tom Brady – Patriots
4. Jared Goff – Rams
5. Jimmy Garoppolo – 49ers
Actual Top-5 2019 Fantasy Quarterbacks
1. Lamar Jackson – Ravens
It may not translate to playoff success, but Jackson broke records when it came to being a fantasy quarterback. He finished over 80 fantasy points ahead of second place Dak Prescott, and was a key piece in many fantasy-league titles.
2. Dak Prescott – Cowboys
3. Jameis Winston – Buccaneers
Is there a more stressful QB to have rostered on your team than “Famous Jameis”? Your heart strength got tested all year with Winston’s insane stat line of 5,109 passing yards, 33 touchdowns and 30 interceptions.
4. Russell Wilson – Seahawks
5. Deshaun Watson – Texans
It’s interesting that not one of the originally projected best fantasy QBs finished in the top-five. Mahomes missed time due to injury, while Brady delivered very good real-life NFL numbers (surpassed 4,000 passing yards), but finished a fantasy QB12.
This further underlines the tested strategy of not reaching too early for the position in your fantasy drafts.
Projected Top-5 Fantasy Running Backs
1. Saquon Barkley – Giants
2. Alvin Kamara – Saints
3. Christian McCaffrey – Panthers
4. Ezekiel Elliott – Cowboys
5. David Johnson – Cardinals
Actual Top-5 2019 Fantasy Running Backs
1. Christian McCaffrey – Panthers
It was an incredible season for the No. 1-ranked player in Fantasy Football. McCaffrey finished 150 fantasy points ahead of the next best running back, Ezekiel Elliott, in PPR formats. What’s more remarkable is that “Run CMC” stacked his nearly 2,400 all-purpose yards and 15 TDs with three different quarterbacks in Carolina.
2. Ezekiel Elliott – Cowboys
3. Aaron Jones – Packers
4. Austin Ekeler – Chargers
5. Derrick Henry – Titans
Henry and Jones were tied for the NFL lead in rushing touchdowns at 16. I value the Packers RB a bit higher than Henry because of his greater pass-catching ability. Expect a regression from Ekeler depending on how the Chargers handle their backfield committee.
Barkley’s absence as a top fantasy RB came as a result of injury and likely returning from it too soon. No doubt he’ll reclaim his spot as one of the most valuable weapons in 2020.
Projected Top-5 Fantasy Wide Receivers
1. DeAndre Hopkins – Texans
2. Davante Adams – Packers
3. Julio Jones – Falcons
4. Michael Thomas – Saints
5. Tyreek Hill – Chiefs
Actual Top-5 2019 Fantasy Wide Receivers
1. Michael Thomas – Saints
Drew Brees’s favourite target was beyond dominant, winning the fantasy WR crown by nearly 100 FPTs in PPR. Thomas was all-world at almost 1,800 receiving yards and 149 receptions.
2. Chris Godwin – Buccaneers
The third-year Buccaneer’s meteoric rise to battle teammate Mike Evans as WR1 in a prolific passing attack was fun to see. If Winston remains the starter in Tampa Bay, it’ll be interesting to track how the targets get distributed in 2020 between Godwin, Evans and Breshad Perriman who impressed late in the season.
3. Julio Jones – Falcons
4. DeAndre Hopkins – Texans
5. Cooper Kupp – Rams
Where fellow Rams receiver Brandin Cooks disintegrated into a fantasy afterthought, Kupp emerged from an injury-shortened 2018 with a vengeance. Amassing his first 1,000-plus-yard campaign, Kupp totalled 10 TDs, 94 catches and was a PPR owner’s dream wideout.
Projected Top-5 Fantasy Tight Ends
1. Travis Kelce – Chiefs
2. George Kittle – 49ers
3. Zach Ertz – Eagles
4. Evan Engram – Giants
5. Jared Cook – Saints
Actual Top-5 2019 Fantasy Tight Ends
1. Travis Kelce – Chiefs
2. George Kittle – 49ers
3. Darren Waller – Raiders (cooled last quarter of the season)
4. Zach Ertz – Eagles
5. Mark Andrews – Ravens
The projections were pretty accurate here, with Kelce and Kittle finishing first and second, and Ertz being edged out by Waller for third place. I loved Waller in the pre-season and drafted him in two of my leagues at a terrific value. He won’t catch anyone by surprise in upcoming fantasy drafts.
I still don’t fully trust Baltimore’s Andrews moving forward, but tight end is in the thinnest fantasy position group so you can’t be too picky. Consistency needs to be factored in as he produced six single-digit fantasy-point showings over 16 weeks as the threat of sharing the ball with fellow TEs Hayden Hurst and Nick Boyle always loomed.
Projected Top-5 Fantasy Defences
1. Chicago Bears
2. Los Angeles Rams
3. New England Patriots
4. Los Angeles Chargers
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
Actual Top-5 2019 Fantasy Defences
1. New England Patriots
New England’s DST was putting up insane numbers for the first half of the season before levelling off a bit. The Patriots averaged over 24 FPTs per game over the first eight weeks.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers outperformed expectations and their success really kicked in after acquiring Minkah Fitzpatrick from Miami.
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City’s defence was sneaky good against the pass, giving up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers.
The Bears’ failure to achieve a top-five fantasy defence has to be the biggest surprise. Chicago fell from first to 17th year-over-year.
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