Each Friday of the 2018 NFL season, we’ll be picking every game (except for Thursday Night Football, of course) against the spread.
Here are the picks for Week 17.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-4.5)
The Pick: Bills
The Dolphins, seemingly in disarray, are coming off their worst loss of the season and are just 1-6 on the road this season (2-5 against the spread). Buffalo, meanwhile, is always a tough place to play and the Bills have some extra motivation as they look to send Kyle Williams out on top.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-8)
The Pick: Packers
The Lions are 5-2 against the spread on the road this season, but have really struggled to score points. Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, played out of his mind last week in a comeback win over the Jets.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-6.5)
The Pick: Texans
The Texans still haven’t wrapped up the AFC South title and could have a shot at a first-round bye, meaning a beatdown of the Blake Bortles-led Jaguars is very much in the cards.
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-13.5)
The Pick: Jets
Sam Darnold has been playing the best football of his rookie season in recent weeks and, though I expect New England to win and improve to 8-0 at home, the Jets could keep this within 10 points.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-7.5)
The Pick: Saints
With the NFC South and No. 1 seeds wrapped up, there will be plenty of backups on the field for the Saints. But the Panthers are starting their third-string QB – Kyle Allen, an undrafted rookie.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-6)
The Pick: Giants
The Cowboys have ensured a home playoff game and can’t get a first-round bye, so it’s Dallas backups vs. Giants starters and I’m betting on the latter.
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Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Pick: Falcons
Two disappointing teams wrapping up two disappointing seasons. I’m picking the Falcons strictly on having the better talent.
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-13.5)
The Pick: Raiders
The Chiefs still have yet to lock up the division or the No. 1 seed, so there’s plenty left to play for, but a spread of this size is too much against a Raiders team playing tougher recently.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)
The Pick: Bears
Chicago can still clinch a first-round bye if the Rams somehow fall to the 49ers on Sunday, so there’s reason to show up in Minnesota aside from the chance to eliminate their division rivals from playoff contention.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14.5)
The Pick: Bengals
James Conner is expected to return for Pittsburgh, which is a definite boost, but a spread of more than two touchdowns is too much for a Steelers team that is just 4-3 ATS at home this season.
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Washington
The Pick: Eagles
More fourth-quarter woes almost sunk the Eagles’ slim playoff hopes for good last week before even more Nick Foles heroics, but I expect Philly to take a decent lead, hold on and let the Bears decide their post-season fate.
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)
The Pick: Browns
I have a feeling Baker Mayfield and the Browns will play spoiler many times in the future, and this could be the first of those times against a Ravens team that needs a win or a Steelers loss to clinch the AFC North.
Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) at Denver Broncos
The Pick: Chargers
If things fall their way, the Chargers could lock up the AFC West and the No. 1 seed with a win and a K.C. loss. I don’t see that happening, but it’ll fuel L.A. to a big road win that would improve the Bolts to 7-1 on the road this season.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-13)
The Pick: Seahawks
The Seahawks don’t have much to play for but insist they won’t rest starters in Sunday’s game. If that’s the case, I like Seattle to cover but don’t be surprised if Arizona plays it close.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-10)
The Pick: Rams
The Rams snapped a mini-skid with a dominant home win over the Cardinals last week and now, with a chance to lock up a first-round bye, host the 49ers, who are 0-7 on the road this season (2-5 ATS).
Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) at Tennessee Titans
The Pick: Colts
The unofficial start of the playoffs will not be a fair fight as Marcus Mariota will be injured, something that severely limits the Titans offensive capabilities against an underrated Colts defence. Because of Mariota’s injury, I’ve got Indy winning to cap a remarkable turnaround with a playoff spot.
