Let’s address the elephant in the room: We haven’t fared all that well against the spread through five weeks of the season.
There’s no need to get into specifics (if only for my self-confidence), but it’s been a few weeks since we’ve been better than .500.
To be fair, it’s tough out there for a spread picker. According to Covers.com’s against-the-spread trends so far this season, there are no real trends!
Perhaps the only true trend we’ve seen has been the success of home underdogs, who sported a 14-7 record through five weeks, including a perfect 3-0 in Week 5. This past week also brought us the revival of home-field advantage, as host teams went 11-4 (they’re 44-33-1 total in 2018).
So armed with that info, plus each team’s ATS record, we’re going to try to keep emotion out of it this week (for the most part) and see where we end up.
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-2.5)
The Pick: Jets
Both teams are 2-3 against the spread so far this season, so I’m inclined to go with the home-team Jets, who just shredded the Broncos and face a Colts squad dealing with a rash of injuries. Plus, home teams favoured by three or less have found plenty of success this season.
Carolina Panthers at Washington (-1)
The Pick: Panthers
Just two picks in and I’m going against the home-team trend. Washington is favoured (technically) at home and both are 2-2 ATS, but how can you pick Jay Gruden’s team after that Monday night showing?
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Oakland Raiders
The Pick: Seahawks
If this was in Oakland, I’d go with the home underdog Raiders, but a three-point win for the Seahawks on neutral ground in London feels like a good pick.
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-10)
The Pick: Vikings
Double-digit home favourites have been a mixed bag through five weeks, but the Cardinals are just 1-4 against the spread and the Vikings look to be hitting their stride.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
The Pick: Falcons
The Falcons have been a disaster against the spread so far this season, but are scoring like crazy at home to the tune of more than 34 points per game. Atlanta is a smart pick here only having to cover three points against a Bucs defence that gave up 48 points on the road last time out.
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Los Angeles Chargers (-1) at Cleveland Browns
The Pick: Chargers
The Browns are technically home underdogs, but at one point… not really. Cleveland is much-improved, that’s true, but the Chargers are among the AFC’s best teams.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2)
The Pick: Bengals
The Bengals have been the surprise team of the season so far, and that includes an impressive record against the spread: 4-1 overall and 2-0 at home.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-10)
The Pick: Bills
This might be the most head-scratching spread of 2018. I know the Bills offence is bad, like real bad, but Houston by 10? The Texans are 0-2 at home ATS and Deshaun Watson is dealing with a chest injury against a decent Buffalo defence. This game might not be good, but it’ll likely be close.
Chicago Bears (-3.5) at Miami Dolphins
The Pick: Bears
I know, I know, home underdogs and all that, but the Bears are flying high coming off a bye and the Dolphins are in the midst of a real rough skid.
Los Angeles Rams (-7) at Denver Broncos
The Pick: Rams
This sticking-with-the-home-underdogs thing is a lot tougher than I thought… but I feel like this pick is self explanatory: the Rams are scoring 34.6 points per game and the Broncos were just torched for 323 rushing yards.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Dallas Cowboys
The Pick: Cowboys
Back to the home dog! This is probably the riskiest pick of the week, but I was burned by Blake Bortles last week and I’m still a little bitter. More rationally, the Cowboys are 2-0 at home so far this season and have been playing better at AT&T Stadium.
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans
The Pick: Titans
The Titans have won a pair of close games at home against the Eagles and Texans, both as home underdogs. Meanwhile, the Ravens are coming off an ugly 12–9 loss in Cleveland.
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-3.5)
The Pick: Patriots
The Patriots have covered in each of their last eight home games, and despite the perfect Chiefs record, it’s hard to go against Brady and Belichick in their place.
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-9.5)
The Pick: Packers
For some reason, I don’t feel great about this spread. Aaron Rodgers is hurting and the Packers haven’t been able to get it together for a full 60 minutes yet this season. BUT the 49ers are decimated by injuries on offence and are only 1-4 ATS this season.
