The possibilities for predictions are endless for the 2026 Formula 1 season.
New regulations, new power unit suppliers and a whole new team joining the grid mean anything can happen when the season starts in 10 weeks at the Australian Grand Prix. Things could flip upside down in the land down under.
First, in the spirit of accountability, let’s revisit my predictions from last year. McLaren drivers Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri did indeed battle for the drivers’ championship, and Lewis Hamilton’s Ferrari dream turned into a nightmare. But Liam Lawson definitely did not give Max Verstappen a run for his money at Red Bull (Lawson was demoted to sibling team Racing Bulls after only two grands prix), and a team outside the top four didn’t win a race.
I also whiffed on thinking Mercedes rookie driver Kimi Antonelli would win a race (although he did score a few podiums, including a second-place finish in Sao Paulo). Fortunately, I parlayed that one with his teammate George Russell winning a race or two (Russell was victorious in Canada and Singapore), so it wasn’t a total write-off — or at least that’s how I’m justifying it.
As we now play prognosticator again, here are five bold predictions for the 2026 F1 season. Remember, these are bold predictions and are meant to be in good fun. Arvid Lindblad finishing as the top rookie? Not bold, considering he’s the only rookie on the grid at the moment. Arvid Lindblad not finishing as the top rookie because you expect a team to make an in-season change? Now you're playing with power.
Russell will win the world championship
If the rumour mill is true that Mercedes has the power unit to beat, then big things could be on the horizon for the Silver Arrows team.
That means we can expect their customer teams to benefit as well, i.e. McLaren, but predicting a Norris repeat or even a maiden world championship for Piastri doesn’t seem like a bold prediction, right? Instead, welcome to Russell-Mania.
F1 moves in waves, and the driver who could make a splash in 2026 is Russell.
The 27-year-old British driver is a proven race winner with five victories to his name and is entering his eighth season in F1. Russell will also feel pressure to deliver with his teammate Antonelli in identical machinery. There will not be a sophomore slump for the 19-year-old, who will only push Russell to find an extra gear and prove he’s the top driver on the team.
Summer of George? More like a man for all seasons.
Mercedes absolutely nailed the set of regs in 2014, leading to one of the most dominant runs in the sport’s history. The team struggled to maintain top form through the “ground effect” era over the previous four seasons, but at last, Mercedes boss Toto Wolff will have revenge.
McLaren’s papaya rules will cost Norris and Piastri the title
The story of two teammates battling for the world championship rarely, if ever, ends well. McLaren has seen it first-hand with Alain Prost and Ayrton Senna, who were teammates for only two seasons, or Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso, who lasted just one.
Norris and Piastri are entering their fourth season as teammates — and one that could turn frosty.
McLaren’s decision not to choose a favourite nearly cost them the title this year, with Verstappen making a late charge and finishing just two points behind Norris. It will bite McLaren in 2026.
Norris and Piastri will continue to trade wins and podiums, syphoning points off of each other and allowing Russell to slip through.
By the time McLaren decides to pick a favourite — just a hunch, but let’s go with Norris — it’ll be too late.
Carlos Sainz will win a race for Williams
We’re not just due for a surprise winner, but Williams is way overdue for a win.
Am I doubling down on my failed prediction from last year that a team outside of the top four will win a race? Well, who’s to say Williams won’t be a top-four team next year?
Williams was once one of the greats with seven drivers’ and nine constructors’ championships, but the team hasn’t won a race since Pastor Maldonado’s victory at the 2012 Spanish Grand Prix. Even that feels like a fever dream, and yes, it totally happened.
With so much uncertainty ahead, why not next year?
Carlos Sainz earned four wins during his tenure with Ferrari and picked up a pair of podiums in his first season with Williams in 2025. Combine that with Williams’ close ties to Mercedes as a power unit customer, and we’ve got a potential winning combination.
Besides, an underdog team rising to the top of the podium is the stuff of Hollywood blockbusters (oops, spoiler alert).
Cadillac will not finish last
Say hello to Cadillac, the first new team to join the grid since Haas in 2016.
The bar for Cadillac should be low, as starting from scratch as an expansion team rather than taking over an existing one (ala Audi with Sauber) presents its own set of challenges.
But not too low: Veteran drivers Valtteri Bottas and Sergio Perez have a combined 16 wins. Both have been out of the game for over a year and will be hungry to prove that they still have it.
Early gains will be ensuring the car returns to the paddock in one piece, but if it’s reliable, they should be fighting for points.
The silliest of silly seasons
The 2026 grid will look almost identical to 2025’s lineup, with just a shuffle among the Red Bull teams. Isack Hadjar replaces Yuki Tsunoda on the senior squad, while newcomer Lindblad takes over Hadjar’s seat at Racing Bulls.
Boring. Let's create some chaos as we look ahead to next year's free agency.
We already predicted the nightmare scenario playing out for Hamilton and Ferrari, but how much longer will it last? A record eighth world championship to cap his career seems a bit too bold (although watch, now that I’ve mentioned it, that will manifest). It would be nice for Hamilton to win at least one more GP before calling it a day, with Haas driver Ollie Bearman getting the call-up to replace him in 2027.
Red Bull’s technical partnership with Honda has ended, as the energy drink juggernaut enters a new alliance with Ford, which could go in any direction. Let’s say it doesn’t prove fruitful in 2026, and Verstappen begins to have serious doubts about the team’s future. Although Verstappen is signed with the team through 2028, his contract apparently has performance-related clauses that could allow for an early exit.
There were rumblings last year that Verstappen's camp was reportedly in discussions with Mercedes, but in the interest of boldness, let’s look elsewhere and suggest Aston Martin, now powered by Honda. Team boss Lawrence Stroll already lured design extrodinaire Adrian Newey from Red Bull, and Aston Martin is reportedly in talks with Verstappen’s race engineer Gianpiero Lambiase about a senior management role. If this resembles Red Bull 2.0, why not go all the way and bring in Verstappen as well? Verstappen could give Red Bull the benefit of the doubt through the rebuild, but the outside noise will only increase in volume.
What about Aston Martin's current drivers, both signed through 2026? Lance Stroll isn't going anywhere for obvious family reasons, but is this the end of the line for Fernando Alonso? The ageless wonder will not retire just yet, even if it means returning to the Renault-owned Alpine team for a fourth time around.
It seems inevitable that Cadillac will promote Colton Herta, the former IndyCar star and now F2 driver, as soon as possible. Who will get the bump? Perez’s outside value could give him the edge over Bottas to retain a seat.
Yes, we’re speculating future rides for a team that hasn’t even started a race yet. Welcome to the off-season, these have been my bold predictions.
