PGA Championship 2022 betting guide: Best bets, longshots, props

Golf betting guru Indy Jeff Sealey joins Follow The Money to give his best picks for the PGA Championship, where you can't ignore world's number one Scottie Scheffler, and he really likes Shane Lowry to get it done.

We’re back for golf’s second major of 2022 as the PGA Championship returns to the Southern Hills Country Club in Tulsa, Okla., with action beginning Thursday.

The last time a major took place at Southern Hills was back in 2007 when Tiger Woods went on to win his fourth PGA Championship and 13th career major. Woods is one of many previous PGA Champions in this week’s stacked field, however last year’s winner notably won’t be defending his title.

Phil Mickelson, who at 50 became the oldest player to win a major one year ago at the PGA Championship, decided to not compete in this year’s tournament as he continues to deal with the fallout from his comments regarding the PGA Tour and a rival Saudi-funded golf league.

“Phil has said some things that I think a lot of us who are committed to the tour and committed to the legacy of the tour have pushed back against, and he’s taken some personal time,” Woods told reporters this week. “And we all understand that.”

Mickelson also skipped The Masters in April.

Once you get beyond the discord involving one of the sport’s all-time greats you can begin focussing on what sets up to be a challenging weekend of golf and a tourney that boasts plenty of star power.

Woods made the cut at the 86th Masters but he’s up against a much deeper field this time around. He is set to tee off alongside fellow superstars Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy for the first two rounds.

Notable Thursday/Friday Pairings…
- Jordan Spieth/Rory McIlroy/Tiger Woods
- Jon Rahm/Collin Morikawa/Scottie Scheffler
- Dustin Johnson/Patrick Cantlay/Justin Thomas
- Viktor Hovland/Will Zalatoris/Cameron Smith
- Shane Lowry/Brooks Koepka/Adam Scott
- Hideki Matsuyama/Xander Schauffele/Tony Finau
- Patrick Reed/Justin Rose/Bubba Watson

The course has undergone significant restoration since 2007 so the field has a fresh playing surface on which to compete. A lack of overall course familiarity adds an intriguing layer of anticipation.

The roughly 7,550-yard course is expected to play as a difficult par 70 this week with smaller-than-tour-average greens, a hilly terrain and hazardous creeks spread throughout the course.

Hitting fairways is more crucial here than it is at Augusta National and the greens feature some long runoffs. A golfer’s ability to remain poised when putting and during key up-and-down situations for birdies and pars will be a difference maker.

“It’s so hard to get close to the pins because the greens are not large, and they’re compartmentalized,” course superintendent Russ Myers told Golf Digest. “You can go out and hit 18 greens and two-putt each one and shoot 70 and be disappointed because you feel like you should’ve shot 64.”

The athletes should also anticipate a variety of weather systems to which they’ll need to adapt.

With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at the field and highlight some golfers we think can contend at the 104th PGA Championship plus some others who can help bettors have a profitable weekend.

THE FAVOURITES

Back at The Masters we highlighted Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas and Cam Smith as our three best bets from the top tier contenders and all three finished with low scores. Scheffler, of course, earned his first career Green Jacket, while Smith finished T3 and Thomas T8. All three are expected to be in contention Sunday, as you can see from the outright winner odds below.

Scheffler (+1100) is the deserved chalk here. The current world No. 1 has four wins already in 2022 plus another four top-25 finishes. His touch is phenomenal around the pin, ranking 25th or better in all major strokes gained categories besides off-the-tee. His driving accuracy is perhaps currently the only element of his game that could get him in trouble this weekend.

John Rahm and Dustin Johnson would routinely have odds shorter than +1000 as tournament favourites when they previously topped the official world golf rankings. Rahm, for example, was a +850 favourite ahead of last year’s Open Championship. Thankfully we’re not seeing as steep a price on Scheffler even though he’d be the one golfer this week to warrant it.

Smith (+2200) has a poor, albeit relatively brief, history at the PGA Championship. His past five results are an ugly T59, T43, T64, T56 and a missed cut dating back to 2017. Still, the young Aussie ranks seventh in strokes gained approaching the green and fourth in strokes gained putting this season and those two metrics can carry him to success at Southern Hills. He has twice as many top-five finishes this year than he does missed cuts.

It’s tempting to play Thomas (+1400) here again too but if I add another top contender to my each-way plays I’m likely to go with Jordan Spieth ahead of JT this time.

Spieth (+1800) has a chance to complete the career grand slam this weekend. His best finishes at this major were a T3 in 2019 and a runner-up in 2015. Spieth’s ability to thrive around the greens can set him apart on courses like this one and he’s on fire in recent weeks. Spieth hasn’t shot a round above 69 since a surprising missed cut at The Masters, winning the RBC Heritage one month ago and finishing second at this past weekend’s AT&T Byron Nelson.

If you’re the type of bettor seeking value over chalk then it could benefit you to look in the direction of Hideki Matsuyama whose odds have shortened slightly in the past few days. Matsuyama (+2200) was T3 at the Byron Nelson and has six top-20 finishes this year.

CONTENDERS WITH VALUE & LONGSHOTS

It’ll be surprising if anyone outside the top dozen favourites wins it all, yet not entirely implausible. There are some tempting options and odds if you’re set on doing some bargain hunting.

Will Zalatoris (+3300) will be a popular play after a T8 in his PGA Championship debut last year and frequent top-10 finishes at other majors.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+4000) has been incredibly steady this year. His five top-five and two top-10 finishes since February elicits plenty of confidence in the 27-year-old Brit.

Joaquin Niemann (+4000) is another youngster playing well in recent weeks. A poor final round last weekend isn’t enough to scare me off from adding the rising Chilean star to my card.

Cam Young (+7500) is one longshot I’m eyeing this week between his strength off the tee and the fact he’s riding nice momentum with a T2 and T3 in his two most recent tournaments.

 

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PROP BETS

There’s no shortage of props to consider if you look beyond the outright winner and each-way markets. Here are some I’ll have on my personal card if you care to follow or fade...

- Corey Conners top 20 finish (+250) and top Canadian (-120)

- Hideki Matsuyama to finish as top Asian (+150)

- Max Homa top 20 finish (+250)

- Joaquin Niemann top 20 finish (+250)

- Cam Young top 20 finish (+280)

- Tommy Fleetwood top 20 finish (+280)

- Louis Oosthuizen top 20 finish (+280)

- Jason Day top 20 finish (+300)

As a more conservative bettor, I’m partial to top-20 props at anything better than +200 odds as opposed to more aggressive top-10 or top-five plays.

Conners (+6000) finds himself in familiar territory with long odds at winning a major. I’m hesitant to go all in on Conners to contend and finish top five this week, however a respectable top-20 result at +250 odds is fine by me. He should, on paper, finish ahead of compatriots Adam Hadwin (+230) and Mackenzie Hughes (+280) in the top Canadian category.

I benefitted from Max Homa’s recent win at the Wells Fargo Championship so I will be placing a loyalty bet on him as a thank you. Homa (+6000) has top-20 finishes in all but three outings since January so that +250 price was tempting to begin with.

Jason Day (+8000) is a past PGA Champion who has shot only one or two bad rounds in the past month, so I like that he’s flying under the radar. Adding Tommy Fleetwood and Louis Oosthuizen too because they're both solid chippers and putters that I predict will adapt well to course conditions.

(All betting odds listed above via Bet365 as of Wednesday afternoon)

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