We’re all set for the second golf major of 2023 as the PGA Championship returns to the Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, N.Y., for the first time since 2013.
The last time we saw golf’s best compete at this course was when Jason Dufner edged out Jim Furyk to win his first and only career major, however, the course has been altered quite a bit in the past decade.
Routinely ranked among the top 100 courses globally, Oak Hill’s East Course has notoriously thick rough lining narrow fairways and plenty of trees even though hundreds were removed as part of the restorations.
The revamped par-70 course sets up to truly challenge golf’s best this year.
Will one of the favourites set themselves apart from the rest of the pack like Jon Rahm did at The Masters in April? A handful of LIV Tour players made waves in the year’s first major with Brooks Koepka and Phil Mickelson co-runners-up and Patrick Reed finishing T4. Does that trend also continue this weekend?
The weather forecast is looking relatively promising with some temperature fluctuation expected, plus moderate-to-low wind with a chance of rain on Saturday that could potentially slow the pace, and the greens, heading into Sunday.
With all that in mind, let’s look at some key betting odds and prop markets ahead of the 2023 PGA Championship.
THE FAVOURITES
Scottie Scheffler +750 | Jon Rahm +750 | Rory McIlroy +1200 (Bet365)
It’s no surprise to see Rahm and Scheffler at the top of the board with McIlroy slightly behind in third as they’re the top three ranked golfers in the sport.
Rahm had the shortest odds behind Scheffler and McIlroy ahead of The Masters in April and went on to win by four strokes over his next closest competitors.
After his performance at The Masters it’s fitting Rahm, the current No. 1 ranked player on the Official World Golf Ranking, is the odds-on favourite alongside Scheffler.
Scheffler has been a model of consistency the past few years, especially in golf’s biggest tournaments, finishing top 10 in seven of the 11 majors he has competed in since 2020. He’s anticipating a challenging week.
The long bombers off the tee will have an inherent advantage on this 7,394-yard course and there’s really no one better than McIlroy when it comes to that, ranking first in driving distance and seventh in strokes gained off the tee. McIlroy is also a top-10 machine at majors, including a T8 at Oak Hill back in 2013, not to mention a two-time PGA Championship winner (2012, 2014).
SECONDARY CONTENDERS
Xander Schauffele +1600 | Patrick Cantlay +2000 | Tony Finau +2000 | Brooks Koepka +2000 | Justin Thomas +2000 | Dustin Johnson +2500 | Justin Thomas +2500 | Jason Day +2500 | Viktor Hovland +2800 Matt Fitzpatrick +3000 | Collin Morikawa +3000 | Cameron Young +3000 | Sungjae Im +3300 | Cameron Smith +3300 | Tyrrell Hatton +3500 | Jordan Spieth +4000 | Max Homa +4000 | Sam Burns +4500 | Hideki Matsuyama +5500 | Tommy Fleetwood +5500 (Bet365)
You get more value the farther down the board you look with Schauffele, Cantlay and Finau playing particularly well this season.
Thomas won in 2017 and is the reigning champ after winning at Southern Hills one year ago, however the 30-year-old only has one top-10 finish in the past three months.
Koepka, a fellow two-time PGA Championship winner (2018 and 2019), is another popular play this week and the LIV Tour player with the shortest odds. He’s coming off his T2 at the Masters and back-to-back top-five LIV finishes in Singapore and Tulsa.
WINNING NATIONALITY
USA -152 | European +210 | Rest of World +425 (Sports Interaction)
U.S. golfers tend to thrive at this course historically. In fact, apart from the 1995 Ryder Cup when Team Europe defeated Team USA, an American has won every single notable tournament held at Oak Hill’s East Course dating back to 1949.
An American star has won the PGA Championship six years in a row regardless of where the tournament takes place.
TOP CANADIAN
Corey Conners +225 | Adam Hadwin +375 | Nick Taylor +500 | Adam Svensson +500 | Mackenzie Hughes +500 | Taylor Pendrith +500 (Sports Interaction)
For an in-depth look at the six Canadians in the field and some of their pre-tournament thoughts, check out Adam Stanley’s preview.
It’s predictable to see Conners lead this prop category at a major yet again considering he’s the lone Canuck in the OWGR top 50, currently ranked No. 29 in the world.
If one of these six athletes were to win outright and become the first Canadian to win a major since Mike Weir in 2003 you could get a return of 100/1 or better on your original wager.
Corey Conners to win outright: +10000
Adam Hadwin to win outright: +25000
Nick Taylor to win outright: +30000
Adam Svensson to win outright: +30000
Mackenzie Hughes to win outright: +40000
Taylor Pendrith to win outright: +40000 (Bet365)
WILL THERE BE A HOLE-IN-ONE?
Yes -125 | No -111 (Sports Interaction)
Considering 13 of the 18 holes at Oak Hill are at least 399 yards in length, there are essentially five holes that could give golfers a chance of draining a hole-in-one: the four par 3s, two of which are at least 230 yards, plus potentially the drivable 320-yard par 4 at hole No. 14.
The No. 5 hole is 180 yards and didn’t exist back at the 2013 PGA Championship; the 155-yard 15th is the shortest hole on the course and the likeliest contender to result in a hole-in-one but it does feature a green with difficult bunker coverage and a deep drop-off on one side.
(Betting odds above as of Wednesday afternoon and subject to change)
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