Despite all the drama on the PGA Tour this year, mostly stemming from the launch of the LIV Golf Invitational Series, fans have been treated to some excellent tournaments and exciting finishes all throughout 2022.
The three majors were no different with two decided by just one stroke (one in a playoff) and each winner currently ranked top 10 in the world. Here’s hoping that can continue this week at the historic 150th Open Championship.
Bettors have enjoyed the action on the course and at sportsbooks. There hasn’t been a longshot take home a major this year – at least certainly nothing like when Phil Mickelson won the 2021 PGA Championship at 125/1 odds – but there have been some profitable performances and the winners have had at least 14/1 pre-tournament odds.
The Masters winner: Scottie Scheffler (+1600)
The PGA Championship winner: Justin Thomas (+1400)
The U.S. Open winner: Matt Fitzpatrick (+2800)
We had Scheffler on our Masters card in April, unfortunately passed on JT at the PGA in May, but bounced back by taking Fitzpatrick as an each/way selection at June’s U.S. Open.
Can we finish the major season strong by predicting who’ll take home the Claret Jug?
Here’s a closer look at the course, forecasted weather, the listed favourites, contenders with value, Tiger Woods, who’s returning to action, plus some longshots and prop bets to consider.
This year’s tournament returns to the iconic Old Course at St Andrews for the first time since Zach Johnson’s win in 2015.
It plays as a par 72 a tad over 7,300 yards this year with two par 3s and a pair of par 5s to go with 14 par 4s, including the 455-yard 17th considered among the most difficult holes in all of golf – the type of hole that can win or lose The Open if the scorecards are close on a tightly contested Sunday.
The wide, fickle fairways can leave golfers in difficult spots even when they hit the ball cleanly, so distance off the tee will be more important than accuracy this week. Strokes gained on approach and scrambling will likely be key metrics to monitor on this links-style layout.
Wind is always a factor on this course, too, and gusts are expected to exceed 40 km/h on the weekend. Temperatures are expected to remain between 21-23 degrees Celsius with some spots of rain expected Friday and Sunday. Moisture and wind can impact how high a ball bounces on a fairway for example, so we’re likely to see balls take some unpredictable bounces.
The short rough may not be daunting, however there is plenty of fescue and hazards golfers must avoid such as the more than 100 bunkers dispersed across the course.
Rory McIlroy (+1000) has been tremendous this year and hasn’t finished outside the top 20 since missing the cut at the Valero Texas Open the first weekend in April. McIlroy tied for third at this course at The Open in 2010 but was unable to compete in 2015 as the active world No.1 due to an injury. He has three top-eight finishes at majors in 2022 (one of only two players to finish top 10 at all three majors) and deserves to be the chalk pick. We could see plenty of long putts and that’s an area in which Rory often excels.
Jordan Spieth (+1800) would like to forget his back nine this past Sunday at the Scottish Open after three bogeys and one nasty double bogey on the 14th that dropped him out of contention. Spieth finished T4 at this course in 2015 during his memorable 2015 season. Spieth won The Open Championship in 2017 and was runner-up in 2021.
Scottie Scheffler (+2000) has been the world’s No. 1 since late March, however he missed the cut at the Scottish Open last week, doesn’t post great scrambling numbers and had a surprise missed cut at the PGA Championship. That has scared off bettors enough to see his odds grow to 20/1, same as Jon Rahm who hasn’t finished in the top 10 at a major this year.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+2000) went T14 at The Masters and T5 at the PGA Championship before winning the U.S. Open in June. He can scramble with the best of them, is money around the greens and now knows what it’s like to win a major so there’s an added swagger to his game.
Shane Lowry (+2200) has been a model of consistency this season, apart from missing the cut at the U.S. Open, but he still seeks his first win. The 2019 Open Champion’s game should translate nicely.
Will Zalatoris (+3000) has been terrific at majors during his young career. He had a T6 at The Masters and back-to-back runner-up finishes at the PGA Championship and U.S. Open. If his putter is dialled in like it has been at majors this year there’s little reason to doubt he can be a legitimate contender. If you think his putting will fall back to earth it may be best to avoid.
Colin Morikawa (+3000) also sits at 30/1 odds as the reigning Open Champion. Morikawa held off Spieth to win at England’s Royal St George's Golf Club in 2021.
Tommy Fleetwood (+3300) and Tyrell Hatton (+4000) are a pair of Brits that tend to play well on links-style courses. Fleetwood is coming off a quality T4 showing at the Scottish Open. Hatton, whose putter is a strength but whose par 4 scoring average is concerning, had a rough go at the Canadian and U.S. Opens before rebounding nicely this past weekend.
Tony Finau (+4500) seems to be once again flying under the radar. He has three top-four finishes since the start of May and 10 top-10 finishes at majors.
Louis Oosthuizen (+5000) might be the one LIV golfer to target this week based solely on his history of success at the Old Course. The South African won his lone major there in 2010 and tied for second in 2015. He’s not having the best year, so an interesting fade would be the Oosthuizen prop to miss the cut at +200.
Joaquin Niemann (+5500) has been coming on strong the past couple months but is the 23-year-old Chilean ready to break out? He best finish at a major so far in his career is a T23.
Max Homa (+5500) has enjoyed himself quite the 2022. He’ll need to rely on his long game and mid-range approach shots this week. If he does, don’t be shocked to see him pick up his ninth top-20 finish since February. He’ll also have a dream come true when he tees off beside Tiger Woods this week, something he has dreamed about for years.
Sungjae Im (+7500) has missed two consecutive cuts. Will we see that Im or the Im who seldom shot over 70 from April to June? I like how his game shapes up with this course, especially since he’s top tier at scrambling and on par 4s.
Seamus Power (+8000) tends to place high whenever he makes a cut. Scrambling is among the 35-year-old Irishman's strengths and his par 4 scoring average is second only to Justin Thomas. Reminder: there are 14 par 4s at this course.
Woods has won twice previously at the Old Course in 2000 and 2005. There is course familiarity, sure, but Woods hasn’t been too active this year. Our prop bet on Woods to make the cut at The Masters cashed back in April but golf’s G.O.A.T. withdrew midway through the PGA Championship and didn’t participate in the U.S. Open.
Woods, who played 18 practice holes Sunday, is slated to play alongside Max Homa and Matt Fitzpatrick Thursday morning. Endurance could be a factor if Woods did shoot low enough to play the weekend.
Here are Tiger’s odds this week:
To make cut (Yes -138 | No +100)
To win tournament (+9000)
Top-five finish (+1600)
Top-10 finish (+700)
Top-20 finish (+300)
Top-30 finish (+175)
Top-40 finish (+115)
PROP BETS
Outright winner and each/way contenders: Scottie Scheffler (+2000), Matt Fitzpatrick (+2000), Shane Lowry (+2200), Tommy Fleetwood (+3300), Tyrell Hatton (+4000), Tony Finau (+4500) Sungjae Im (+7500), Seamus Power (+8000)
Top-10 contenders with value: Shane Lowry (+240), Tommy Fleetwood (+333), Tyrell Hatton (+375), Tony Finau (+425), Sungjae Im (+650), Seamus Power (+650)
Top-20 contenders with value: Seamus Power (+280), Sungjae Im (+280), Corey Conners (+320), Christian Bezuidenhout (+375), Robert MacIntyre (+400)
(Betting odds via Bet365 as of Tuesday night and subject to change)
