Since familiarity breeds contempt, the second round of the OHL playoffs should be riveting.
The Kitchener Rangers and London Knights, led by Mitch Marner, are meeting for the fourth time in five post-seasons and, of course, the two flagship franchises don’t much like each other. The Sault Ste. Marie-Erie and North Bay-Barrie series are re-rematches, since those teams also met in 2014 and ’15.
The one exception, the Niagara IceDogs-Kingston Frontenacs series, might have the most dramatic overtones, within an OHL context. The result will pull the curtain on the junior days of about a dozen veterans, and each city’s fans are hungry for a championship.
Three series begin Thursday.
Jeff Marek hosts Sportsnet’s weekly CHL podcast, a one-stop shop for news, analysis, opinion and interviews covering the WHL, OHL and QMJHL.
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Eastern Conference
No. 1 Kingston Frontenacs vs. No. 4 Niagara IceDogs
Series in a sentence
Two teams with plenty of talent, looking to boldly go where they haven’t gone yet.
Star power
Two New York Islanders first-rounders: Michael Dal Colle scored or set up 14 of 27 Kingston goals against Oshawa, while ‘Dogs winger Josh Ho-Sang was in on 11 of Niagara’s 19 vs. Ottawa.
Season series
Kingston, 3-1-0-0 (one shootout win)
Why Kingston should win
In a series that has a combined 29 elders on the rosters, the Frontenacs’ structural soundness should prevail over a projected six- or seven-game affray.
Carolina Hurricanes-signed captain Roland McKeown and Toronto Maple Leafs selection Stephen Desrocher offer a pair of shutdown defencemen. The Fronts’ D-corps is deeper than the depleted Ottawa 67’s crew that Niagara wore out in Round 1. McKeown and Desrochers’s friends up front will also keep them from logging too much defensive zone time.
Dal Colle has 69 points since joining Kingston 35 games ago. (Aaron Bell/OHL Images)
Kingston can score, tag-teaming foes with the Warren Foegele-Dal Colle-Spencer Watson first line and two-way second-liners Lawson Crouse and Juho Lammikko.
How Niagara could win
Carolina goalie prospect Alex Nedeljkovic is capable of stealing games. The IceDogs are deep with four drafted 19-year-old defencemen, including savvy Vince Dunn and big-bodied Aaron Haydon and Ryan Mantha.
The Stephen Harper-Pavel Jenys-Ho-Sang line combined for 21 points in the five-game advancement against Ottawa, although the Jordan Maletta-Brendan Perlini-Anthony DiFruscia trio must kick it up a notch. Unlike most four seeds, the IceDogs aren’t dealing with a shorter layoff than Kingston, since both teams had a five-game opening round.
No. 2 Barrie Colts vs. No. 3 North Bay Battalion
Series in a sentence
Two tired teams with a tight turnaround for a coin-flip matchup; also their third second-round matchup in a row.
Star power
Colts overage centre Justin Scott has piqued NHL teams’ interest with a playoff-leading 10 goals, while L.A. Kings signing Mike Amadio is second with nine.
Season series
North Bay, 4-1-0-1 (one shootout win)
Why North Bay should win
Each team might be minus a top-six wing. The Battalion got by Peterborough after right-winger Brett Hargrave went down in Game 2 with a reported hairline fracture in his collarbone, while San Jose Sharks prospect Dylan Sadowy was a no-go in Mississauga-Barrie Game 7.
The history and the health check might say North Bay. The Battalion’s best bet is to lock the Colts into a string of low-scoring games. That worked against Peterborough, and so did the Cam Dineen-Kyle Wood first pairing stepping up the “D” scoring by combining for 15 points.
Dineen’s 59 points were good for second in OHL scoring by blueliners. (Aaron Bell/OHL Images)
Amadio’s all-world play since mid-season will make the Battalion a tough out. The Amadio-Maurizio Colella-Mathew Santos line scored 16 of 24 North Bay playoff goals against Peterborough. The Scott-Andrew Mangiapane-Kevin Labanc line had 16 of Barrie’s 25 against Mississauga.
How Barrie could win
New Jersey Devils second-rounder Mackenzie Blackwood should be too good to end his OHL tenure with a third consecutive elimination against the same team. The 19-year-old came back from injury to win Game 7 against the Steelheads. It’s plausible that the seven-game scare from Mississauga awakened the Colts.
The worry about Barrie is the over-reliance on Labanc’s line, even more so if Sadowy is out or physically limited. Calgary Flames signing Rasmus Andersson and the Colts defencemen also need to stay on-point with zone exits.
Western Conference
No. 1 Erie Otters vs. No. 7 Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds
Series in a sentence
Third spring in a row for the Erie and the Soo, but minus that Connor McDavid fellow. Was he not rather good?
Star power
New York Rangers goalie prospect Brandon Halverson against everybody on Erie, including Arizona Coyotes top prospect Dylan Strome and Leafs second-rounder Travis Dermott.
Season series
Erie, 2-0-0-0 (one overtime win)
Why Erie should win
Strome, Dermott and two-time 51-goal scorer Alex DeBrincat and the Otters ought to take the play to the Soo, which was out-shot in all seven games against the Sarnia Sting.
Coach Kris Knoblauch’s Erie club has a full week off due to the Friday opener. Drew Bannister’s young Greyhounds will end up getting in just three sleeps while coming off seven draining games against the Sting, who lost superstar Travis Konecny to an injured shoulder.
Devin Williams posted a paltry .880 save percentage in Round 1. (Terry Wilson/OHL Images)
Those sound like the ingredients for Erie to advance quickly and hit CTRL+R for the Western final.
How Sault Ste. Marie could win
Stealing games on the road worked against Sarnia but will be tougher to apply against Erie. Halverson reached new heights in the third period of Game 7 to cancel out two earlier short-side goals. Captain Blake Speers, draft-year forward Boris Katchouk and overage centre Gabe Guertler’s timely scoring made up for the fact that Boston Bruins first-rounder Zach Senyshyn only scored in one game.
No. 3 London Knights vs. No. 4 Kitchener Rangers
Series in a sentence
Get the popcorn ready; London eliminated Kitchener in 2012, ’13 and ’15.
Star power
Got an hour? The top lines each boast an Arizona Coyotes second-rounder centering a scoring winger in the Toronto Maple Leafs system, with London’s Christian Dvorak-Matt Tkachuk-Mitch Marner trio and Kitchener’s Ryan MacInnis-Brandon Robinson-Jeremy Bracco line.
Season series
London, 4-2-0-0
Why London should win
Playing languid made Matthew McConaughey’s career, but if the Knights are going to stay “alright, alright, alright”, they will need more urgency than they evinced against Owen Sound. Eight Knights averaged at least a point per game against the Rangers in the season series. They will need to replicate that balance while, ideally, also having Dvorak and Marner run the show when needed.
Dvorak led the OHL in points per game this season with 2.05 (CHL Images)
Owen Sound might have been the wake-up call the Knights needed. During the season series with the Rangers, they also cashed in at a 29.6 percent clip on the power play and had an 88 percent penalty-kill rate.
Why Kitchener could win
It depends on how far they can go with goalie Dawson Carty, who replaced Luke Opilka during Game 1 of the surprisingly quick five-game defeat of the Windsor Spitfires. If the goaltending holds up, MacInnis, Bracco and sophomore Adam Mascherin can cobble together some scoring.
The Rangers’ stout back end, headed by Frank Hora and ex-Knight Miles Liberati, should also have Dmitrii Sergeev back after he missed a month with a lower-body ailment.