I suppose the tag “Group of Death” started in soccer’s World Cup and has spread from there to any talent-heavy section in a play-down for a championship, For those watching the NCAA’s basketball tournament right now, Wichita State as a one seed having to play defending champion Louisville in the round of 16 makes its region the NCAA hoops’ Group of Death.
There’s no dispute about this year’s Group of Death in the CHL playoffs. The balance of power in the OHL in recent history has tipped to its Western Conference: seven of the last league champions come from the right side of the map, including consecutive MasterCard Memorial Cups by Windsor in 2009 and 2010. It runs even deeper than that: 11 of past 12 come out of the west. Even more remarkable about this trend is that it doesn’t reflect the dominance of one or two powerhouse programs: seven different Western Conference franchises have claimed championships over that run.
Yeah, maybe people think of the London Knights, this year’s Memorial Cup hosts, as the perpetual power and there’s some truth in that: The Knights are always in the mix. But any of the top four teams in the Western Conference would rank as a favourite, maybe a heavy favourite, in the league final against any team that emerges from the Eastern side of the draw. No knock intended against Oshawa, Barrie, North Bay and the rest, but to have a shot, the Eastern Conference champion would have to count on one of two things to make the Memorial Cup tournament: 1. Guelph, Erie or Sault Ste. Marie being so beat up and softened up en route to the OHL final that the west’s best is left exposed; or 2. London makes the final, which was the case in 2005 when the Knights last hosted the tournament.
Fact is, this year the talent might run deeper in the Western Conference than at any time in the new millennium. Three of the top six teams in the CHL’s national rankings come out of the conference — in fact those three are all in the Midwest Division. Two teams that might be OHL champions in most given years won’t get out of the second round of the playoffs and will be left at home watching the Western final. The Knights, the two-time defending OHL champions, go into the playoffs as the fourth seed in their conference. Just that fact might leave you to conclude that it’s a bit of a down year for the Knights — at least until you note that the Knights wound up with 103 points across the 68-game season.
“I really think this year we’re stronger than the teams that went (to the Memorial Cup) the last two seasons,” London centre Bo Horvat says. “And remember two years ago we lost in overtime in the championship game.”
You have to take Horvat at his word — after all, the Knights were only two points off their total from the 2012-13 season and that was with six games against the nation’s No. 2-ranked Guelph Storm and six more against the fourth-ranked Erie Otters. The Knights had to be better just to wind up in about the same place.
So what shakes down in the death march to the OHL final?
Does Guelph emerge? After all, the Storm, who’ll meet Plymouth in Game 1 of the opening round Friday, will have home-ice advantage through the playoffs. Will it be the Otters, led by league-leading scorer Connor Brown and phenom Connor McDavid? If you’re inclined to bet on the shiniest pro prospect and league scoring leaders, then Erie would be your play. Does the Soo shoot up the middle? The storyline would provide a big payoff to the remarkable turn-around authored by Sheldon Keefe whose appointment as coach caused significant controversy last season. Do the Knights make it three in a row? They’re freed up with the fact that they’re playing with house money and that, as hosts, their shot at a national championship won’t be hanging in the balance.
There’s a pretty significant drop-off after the top four teams in the Western Conference and each will be a heavy favourite in the opening round. If form holds and Guelph, the Soo, Erie and London advance to the second round, the Guelph-London series will be a must-watch. While the Knights have the high-end talents — top draft picks like Max Domi, Nikita Zadorov and Horvat — the Storm are a relentless and especially greasy lot. And if Erie gets out of the Soo series, consider this: The winner of the Guelph-London series could wind up playing as many as 26 games against teams in the top six of the CHL rankings this season before the puck is dropped in the Memorial Cup … before even getting to the league championships.
If that’s not Group of Death stuff, nothing is.