While the Windsor Spitfires begin their 44-day hiatus before the MasterCard Memorial Cup, the second round could be a proof of why possessing the puck matters.
There might not be a lot to choose from between the Erie Otters and London Knights, or the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds and Owen Sound Attack, who meet in the two savoury Western Conference matchups. A fun stat fact to take into it, though: The Otters were outshot only 10 times all season. The Attack were also outshot only 10 times. That’s half as many as any other team.
Defence might win championships, but sometimes the best defence is an unrelenting offence. There’s your theme for the league’s conference semifinals, which begin on Wednesday.
Western Conference
No. 1 Erie Otters vs. No. 4 London Knights
Series in a sentence
It’s a world junior gold medal game redux, only Tyler Parsons is in goal for the Canadian-based team whilst Anthony Cirelli, Dylan Strome and Taylor Raddysh are on the U.S.-based team. But this time Alex DeBrincat is also playing.
Star power
The preceding paragraph didn’t even have room for Olli Juolevi (VAN), the No. 5 overall pick in 2016. Another defenceman, Erie’s Darren Raddysh, could have a greater influence over the outcome.
The last time they played
2016 conference final, which the Knights swept.
Why Erie should win
DeBrincat, Cirelli, Strome and the Raddyshes, et al., faced the Knights four times after the Jan. 9 trade deadline and London never recorded more than 25 shots on goal in any contest. Strome’s line will also have to be sharp in a likely matchup against a Knights trio paced by J.J. Piccinich (TOR). London, frankly, didn’t have to worry much about its opponent laying the body during a seven-game series against Windsor.
Beyond the big names, Erie also has the size in the middle with Warren Foegele (CAR) and Kyle Pettit (VAN) to play a heavy game against London.
Provided that their special teams and goaltending hold up, the Otters stand a good chance to advance, although it could be a six- or seven-game set. Goalie Troy Timpano will be facing his first real pressure situation of these playoffs.
How London could win
With Parsons (CGY), London has a decided edge in goal, and also possesses a chameleon quality to go from being an offensively-oriented team in the regular season to a grim-minded, grind-it-out, shot-blocking bunch in the playoffs. Max Jones (ANA) will surely do his best-worst, so to speak, at riling up Erie and creating open ice for scorers such as Cliff Pu (BUF), Sam Miletic and Mitchell Stephens (TB).
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No. 2 Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds vs. No. 3 Owen Sound Attack
Series in a sentence
Make sure the jerseys have extra room for a chip on both shoulders; both the ‘Hounds (39 wins in their last 52 games) and Attack (43 in 51) might feel they haven’t received their due.
Star power
Forwards Blake Speers (NJ) and Zach Senyshyn (BOS) are the Soo’s fourth-year stars; goalie Michael McNiven (MTL) gives Owen Sound licence to run and gun.
The last time they played
2014, first round; the ‘Hounds won in five games and Speers notched his first OHL playoff points in the series clincher.
Why Owen Sound should win
When room to manoeuvre 5-on-5 shrinks, look to the team with the better power play and the goalie who’s less likely to hand out a softie. The Attack check both boxes. With C-LW Kevin Hancock, LW Petrus Palmus and C Nick Suzuki igniting the offence, they do the work to draw penalties and then power-play quarterback Santino Centorame and Co. get to work on the conversion. Owen Sound also allowed the fewest goals in the regular season, due in no small part to McNiven and the confidence he gives Owen Sound to have its defencemen be aggressive and active on the offensive end.
How Sault Ste. Marie could win
In the first round, the Soo succeeded in flushing the Flint Firebirds’ forwards out to the perimeter. Doing so against Owen Sound, which averaged 49 shots per game against Kitchener, could prove exceedingly difficult, but Conor Timmons and the ‘Hounds defencemen will certainly give it a try.
The ‘Hounds have the speed and well-distributed scoring to keep pace with Owen Sound. After all, they had four 30-goal scorers, including LW Tim Gettinger (NYR) and LW Boris Katchouk (TB). They would need peak output from their power play, which was 13th-best in the regular season, and in goal, where Joseph Raaymakers has had some shaky moments.
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Eastern Conference
No. 1 Peterborough Petes vs. No. 4 Kingston Frontenacs
Series in a sentence
The more seasoned Petes, solid in goal with Dylan Wells (EDM), have had a week to rest up while the young Frontenacs come in off of the emotional high of a come-from-behind Game 7 overtime win against Hamilton on Monday.
Star power
Jonathan Ang (FLA) and Nikita Korostelev (TOR) get the creative juices stewing for Peterborough. For Kingston, draft-year wing Jason Robertson had 12 points in the first round, while Nathan Dunkley (seven points as many games against Hamilton) plays a game that belies his 2000 birthdate.
The last time they played
2014, first round; current Anaheim Ducks LW Nick Ritchie got the Game 7 overtime winner as the Petes became the fourth OHL team to surmount an 0-3 series deficit.
Why Peterborough should win
In a matchup between two teams with a similar style, Peterborough is sufficiently better rested and has a deeper lineup. That applies particularly on the back end, although the status of OHL defenceman of the year nominee Matt Timms is something of a state secret after he went down with an apparent shoulder injury in the first round. Beyond Timms, Peterborough is stacked on the back end and the likes of Matt Spencer (TB), Brandon Prophet and Kyle Jenkins will be lurking.
As long as Wells comes out more or less even with Kingston’s Jeremy Helvig (CAR) in the goaltending battle, they should be fine. The Petes won the season series 6-2, but had a goal differential of only plus-3.
How Kingston could win
A lights-out effort from Helvig in goal and an avoidance of second-period letdowns — a major Achilles heel for much of the Hamilton series — would be a start for the Fronts. Kingston got the drop on Hamilton by turning pucks over and being opportunistic, but that style can have a best-before date in the playoffs as the competition gets stronger. Coach Paul McFarland won’t be satisfied with winning one playoff round, but doing it while being so reliant on 17-year-olds is commendable.
No. 2 Mississauga Steelheads vs. No. 3 Oshawa Generals
Series in a sentence
In MMA terms, the Steelheads can be a knockout artist when they want to be while the Generals can get an opponent to the ground and grind it out.
Star power
Mississauga’s top line of Mike McLeod (NJ), Spencer Watson (LA) and draft-eligible Ryan McLeod combined for 26 points during a six-game series against Ottawa. Generals G Jeremy Brodeur had a 2.17 average and .935 save percentage to help his club polish off the Sudbury Wolves in six.
The last time they played
2014, first round; Oshawa swept 4-0 but the last three wins were all in overtime. Mississauga RW Nathan Bastian (NJ) and overage Stefan LeBlanc are the sole holdovers from that series.
Why Mississauga should win
The Steelheads went 0-4 in the season series against Oshawa, but only one of those games was post-trade deadline. With the concentration of next-level potential up front — the McLeods, plus Bastian and Owen Tippett — they should be very hard to suppress for an entire 60 minutes. The likes of Vili Saarijärvi (DET) and Jacob Moverare (LA) should also help Mississauga play a puck-possession game and prevail.
Discipline and goaltending are the watchwords for ‘Sauga. Defenceman Nic Hague, who can return for Game 1 on Friday, is fortunate that he was only suspended two games fo driving the head of Ottawa’s Travis Barron into the ice during the first round.
Nicolas Hague's cheap shot on Travis Barron in the OHL playoffs last night… pic.twitter.com/ABOsdk67Ve
— Robert Söderlind (@HockeyWebCast) March 31, 2017
In net, Mississauga has Matt Mancina back from injury after Jacob Ingham handled the first round.
How Oshawa could win
Under coach Bob Jones, Oshawa is a very resolute unit that will be hard to get rid of once they get a foot in the door. Continued hot play from Jeremy Brodeur, a better power play (they were 3-of-35 against Sudbury) and driving Mississauga to distraction is probably all part of the formula. Sophomore Jack Studnicka was one of five forwards with at least five points against Sudbury.
