The Regina Pats are starting a new series with the chance to set a team record for wins. Well, that works on the level of metaphor.
With the Pats and their pick-your-poison combination of Adam Brooks and Sam Steel, one peril is avoiding that state where perfection becomes the enemy of good. From afar, it seems like Regina coach John Paddock is working to guard against having any false sense of security, or letting little problems that his team’s talent can override fester into big ones.
The Pats, who have won 12 consecutive games for just the second time as a WHL franchise, get the second round underway against the Swift Current Broncos on Thursday night. The other series begin Friday.
The first round was notable for road teams winning 22 of the 44 games, including five of the seven in the Swift Current-Moose Jaw series. So much for home-ice advantage.
Eastern Conference
No. 1 Regina Pats vs. No. 3 Swift Current Broncos
Series in a sentence
Swift Current was 1-7 during the season series, but championship-winning goalie Jordan Papirny and the Broncos will try to make Regina face adversity.
Star power
The aforementioned Adam Brooks (TOR) and Sam Steel (ANA) combined for 18 points during a four-game sweep against Calgary; Broncos 50-goal scorer Tyler Steenbergen also delivered six in seven games against Moose Jaw.
The last time they played
2015, first round; Regina swept 4-0.
Why Regina should win
The Pats are a buzzsaw and it might be a buzzkill to list this series first. Collectively, they are one of the fastest and most potent teams to be found anywhere in the CHL; seven players scored at least 28 goals in the regular season. Brooks, Steel, Filip Ahl (OTT), Austin Wagner (LAK) and Nick Henry, after their first-round series, should have some grounding. Every team from here on out will try to bottle them up physically and hope the emotions boil over.
One subplot to the series will go is how captain and fourth-year defenceman Connor Hobbs (WSH) handles being a focal point of the Broncos’ game plan. Interestingly enough, Hobbs, who has 198 penalty minutes across the last two regular seasons, was penalty-free in all eight games against the Broncos.
How Swift Current could win
Small-market team with a first-year coach up against a Prairie juggernaut with 50-some regular-season wins and a star centre who should have been playing at a high level? That was the scenario the Kootenay Ice, under Kris Knoblauch (now coach of the OHL’s Erie Otters), had in 2011 when they bounced Brayden Schenn and the Saskatoon Blades in five games.
So there is at least a template that Swift Current coach Emanuel (Manny) Viveiros can give to his team. The Broncos, with five 19-year-olds including two-way centre Glenn Gawdin (STL) and cornerstone defenceman Max Lajoie, should have the resolve to make Regina earn everything. Goalie Jordan Papirny, as an overager with a WHL title on his resumé, is also consistent. Basically, for Swift Current it’s likely a matter of being committed to close checking and seeing if they can raise Regina’s level of self-doubt.
No. 1 Medicine Hat Tigers vs. No. 2 Lethbridge Hurricanes
Series in a sentence
The first Highway 3 series in a quarter century involves two teams who can score in bunches.
Star power
Lethbridge’s Tyler Wong and Medicine Hat’s Chad Butcher are the top two regular-season scorers who don’t play for Regina remaining in the playoffs.
The last time they played
1991, East Division final: Lethbridge won 4-3. Future NHLers in that series included Jamie McLennan and Jamie Pushor.
Why Medicine Hat should win
Like the other Eastern semifinal, one team has had a week to rest and recuperate and the other will have had only two full days after the emotional peak of winning a series that went the distance. Medicine Hat will go in with fresher legs, which ought to facilitate the likes of Butcher, Matt Bradley (MTL), John Dahlstrom (CHI) and Mason Shaw being able to push the pace. The relatively smallish Tigers — RW Zach Fischer is the only forward listed at more than 200 pounds — should be used to teams trying to play them physically.
Based on form, one would expect that Medicine Hat’s blue-line, strengthened by captain Clayton Kirichenko and offensively-minded David Quenneville (NYI), has a better chance of holding up than Lethbridge’s. The Hurricanes allowed at least 30 shots in all but one game of the first round.
The teams combined for 9.0 goals per game during their season series.
How Lethbridge could win
Winning three elimination games in a row against Red Deer was admirable, but the Hurricanes put themselves in a hole with undisciplined penalties against the Rebels. Reverting to that would be unforgivable against the Tigers, one of the highest scoring teams in the entire CHL.
Lethbridge comes into the series with balanced scoring, since six forwards had at least six points against Red Deer (led by Wong with 10). Forward Giorgio Estephan (BUF) provided a boost late in that series by coming back from injury. On paper, the ‘Canes compare well offensively and 18-year-old Stuart Skinner certainly has a track record of stealing games and managing a heavy volume of shots. Lethbridge will likely need a 40-save night from him at some point.
Western Conference
No. 2 Kelowna Rockets vs. No. 4 Portland Winterhawks (wild card)
Series in a sentence
It is a round earlier than one might be used to seeing this matchup, but reboots often prove enjoyable.
Star power
Kelowna C Dillon Dubé (CGY) and Portland D Caleb Jones (EDM) will be on the ice together quite often. They were on opposite sides of the world junior championship gold-medal game, with Jones helping Team USA win the gold medal.
The last time they played
2015, Western final; Kelowna won 4-2.
Why Kelowna should win
One could be talked into seeing this as a toss-up series. The Rockets have home-ice advantage as well as an edge in experienced high-end talent with Dubé, Nick Merkley (ARI) and Carsen Twarynski (PHI) up front. That said, didn’t Portland just take out a Prince George Cougars team that was laden with 19-year-olds? (Yes, yes they did.)
Kelowna, whose top four on the back end is anchored by Devante Stephens (BUF), will have to be sharp against Portland, which thrived at generating goals off of turnovers against Prince George. Kelowna got away with allowing 5.3 power plays a game during its series against Kamloops, but had enough of a commitment to shot-blocking to go 31-of-32 on kills. Giving that many opportunities to Jones, et al., is a bad idea.
In goal, both the Rockets’ overager Michael Herringer and Winterhawks’ 19-year-old Cole Kehler have run hot and cold, but both rewarded their teams’ trust in decisive games of the first round. Whoever holds up better probably gets to see Round 3.
How Portland could win
The young Winterhawks are essentially playing with house money after winning a round as a wild card. Between the younger cohorts who are growing up together — Cody Glass, Joachim Blichfeld, Skyler McKenzie — and the overagers Keegan Iverson and Matt Revel, they can probably hang in with Kelowna in a high-paced, trading-chances type of game.
The X factor is probably Jones, the puck-moving defenceman who had six points in as many games during the first round. Jones’ influence on the series will amplify if Kelowna continues to have penalty problems. By that token, young teams’ inexperience often gets laid bare on special teams during the playoffs and it’s notable the Winterhawks’ PK functioned at only 70 per cent in the first round.
No. 1 Everett Silvertips vs. No. 2 Seattle Thunderbirds
Series in a sentence
Seattle will try to out-Everett Everett at playing shutdown hockey, since it worked this this time last season.
Star power
The T-Birds’ leading scorers, Mathew Barzal (NYI) and Ryan Gropp (NYR), are each questionable, but offensive defenceman Ethan Bear (EDM) is reigning WHL player of the week. Everett G Carter Hart (PHI) and D Noah Juulsen (MTL) helped Canada capture the silver medal at the world junior.
The last time they played
2016, U.S. Division final; Seattle won 4-1.
Why Seattle should win
The series shapes up as one that will skew toward defence, which might mitigate Seattle lacking the full use of both Barzal (illness, last played March 7) and Gropp (injured by a high hit in Game 2 against Tri-City). The Thunderbirds profile as having a deeper stock of complementary scoring. Twelve players scored during the 4-0 sweep against Tri-City and core forwards such as Keegan Kolesar (CLB), Scott Eansor, Donovan Neuls and Alexander True ran with the notion of winning without the big guns.
During the 10-game season series, Seattle limited Everett to just more than one non-power play goal per game. The Thunderbirds’ specialty teams, with Bear quarterbacking the power play, have been shipshape (8-of-20 on the PP, 18-of-19 on the PK).
How Everett could win
The ‘Tips will have to be much more prolific at even strength than they were during the first round against Victoria. Over the equivalent of 7.5 close-checking games, they scored only eight goals playing 5-on-5. Offensive leaders such as Patrick Bajkov, Eetu Tuulola (CGY) and Dominic Zwerger face a tall task in that aspect.
That said, Everett is stout at the back end with a seasoned top four of Juulsen, Aaron Irving, Lucas Skrumeda and Kevin Davis. Having Hart as a last line of defence will also forgive a few blown coverages. Everett’s capable of eking out several close wins, although it’s notable that Seattle went 16-9 in one-goal games during the regular season whereas Everett was 11-20.
Incidentally, with a potential goaltending matchup between Hart and Seattle’s 16-year-old Carl Stankowski offers the possibility that two Team Canada goalies could be involved in this series.
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