Every Sunday this season, we’ll share 20 Fantasy Thoughts from the writers at Dobber Hockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s “Daily Ramblings” on DobberHockey.com.
1. Nicklas Backstrom is on fire right now. With a goal and two assists on Saturday, Backstrom now has back-to-back three-point games, along with a seven-game point streak where he has 13 points. And surprise, surprise: Backstrom is now tied with Sidney Crosby with 60 points. That puts Backstrom on pace for just under 90. Is Backstrom a dark horse candidate for the Art Ross, and can he keep up with Crosby and Connor McDavid? I’d still take Crosby, given the points-per-game pace from having played fewer games.
2. The Evander Kane–Jack Eichel–Sam Reinhart line combined for seven points on Saturday – all in the first period. Both of Kane’s goals were laser beams that were in the net before Frederik Andersen realized he took the shot. We may have been quick to write off Kane after his legal troubles and injury issues, but he’s now up to 18 goals in 44 games. Expand that over a full season and Kane would be on pace for over 30 goals. The tools are still there, and if he stays with Eichel during the growth stage of the latter’s career, we may still see that happen.
3. I’m staring down a potential Kyle Okposo-for-Nick Foligno trade. Foligno would help give me a boost in hits but I’m terrified of watching the Blue Jackets go into the tank for the stretch run.
I have much more confidence in the talent in Buffalo, even if they have a weaker team on the whole. A big reason for that is Eichel. Elite shooters have a way of elevating your floor. I put Eichel just below the Ovechkin/Stamkos/Laine tier of shooters but he’s still capable of being an offensive fulcrum both in volume and in conversion rate. I had some questions about him coming into the season but Eichel has answered all of them.
4. Trending in the southern direction is Zachary Werenski. He has just seven points in 18 games since January 1 and has seen his shot rate fall steadily as the season has worn on. He’s still above two SOG per game but he’s fallen off a 200-shot pace.
The Blue Jackets’ power play has gone into the tank after being lights out early on. The lesson: teams adjust. You can’t expect elite production out of a unit for a full season, no matter how good they look. Now we get to see if they can make adjustments of their own.
5. Another player who is closing in on 20 goals is Patrik Berglund, thanks to a hat trick against the struggling Canadiens Saturday. Berglund now has six goals and is a plus-6 over his last five games, and the ice time is there for the taking now that Robby Fabbri is out for the season. Berglund isn’t on the first-unit power play and he has only three power-play goals all season, so expectations should be tempered. But the Blues will need to lean more heavily on Berglund down the stretch, which makes him a possible deep league pickup.
6. He’s only 55 games into the season, but 32-year-old Patrick Eaves has already reached a career high in goals. He scored goals number 20 and 21 while playing on a line with Jamie Benn on Saturday. Eaves is at the time of this writing a top-20 goal scorer. But because he’s not a name brand, he’s still unowned in about three-quarters of Yahoo leagues. The 15 per cent shooting accuracy may have something to do with it, but he shot at that rate two seasons ago as well. Might as well pick him up.
7. Vladimir Tarasenko produces awesome shot volume. Since breaking out in 2014-15, Tarasenko has the fifth most SOG in the league behind only Ovechkin, Burns, Pacioretty and Seguin, averaging slightly less than 3.5 SOG per game. That’s a 284-shot pace. Gold in standard leagues.
There is plenty of evidence to suggest that goal scorers peak early and that Tarasenko may already be exiting his peak. Perhaps he never again hits the 40-goal plateau. It’s good news that he is on pace for his first 40-assist season.
8. Victor Hedman has been a beast this season, and would be in the Norris conversation were the Lightning any good or were Brent Burns human. This is the kind of elite production we have been waiting for from Hedman for years. He’s 26, in his prime and finally delivering.
That said, I don’t think Hedman is so good that I would turn down an elite forward for him. Defencemen are fickle. They rely so heavily on their teammates’ ability to create offence. Other than Burns, Erik Karlsson and perhaps a few others, you can’t really say that any other defencemen drive offence for their teams. Hedman is starting to push into that elite offence-driving range but we shouldn’t overreact to a breakout season.
9. On Cory Schneider: I am a fan. He’s been an above-average goalie for years that put in a couple months of struggles. He has already started to turn things around. Across 14 appearances since Jan. 1, he has a .930 save percentage.
Schneider turns 31 this spring so he’s still a couple of years away from where I really start to worry about goaltenders. This fall was the first chink in his armor. Another up-and-down season and I’d start being concerned that his age and environment are too taxing but I’m not there yet. The Devils stink but they have an avenue to improvement and Schneider is a big part of that. I wouldn’t be in a hurry to trade him but I also never turn down good trade value.
10. Random thought: the Devils are a team with cap space and the need for help on defence. I wonder if that puts them in the running for Kevin Shattenkirk. I’m not pegging New Jersey as a trade destination for the latter, but I wonder all of this because Damon Severson is in the midst of a career year and heading towards restricted free agency.
I imagine that Severson’s plus/minus figure will help to keep his next contract down but I don’t care about plus/minus. I care more that Severson’s relative possession numbers look good on a bad team whose elite starter (Schneider) is having the worst year of his career. I also care more that Severson is 22, trending up and should be able to provide 90 per cent of what Shattenkirk does at perhaps a third of the price.
11. Craig Anderson’s return means that Andrew Hammond was placed on waivers. His days as the Hamburgler seem to be in the distant past, as he has struggled mightily this season (0-2-0, 4.08 GAA, .837 SV%). Could a team like the goaltending-thin Avalanche pick him up? Hammond has a career 2.13 GAA and .923 SV%, so there may be some interest from teams in need of organizational goaltending depth. Hammond started just twice since Dec. 5, the date that Anderson left the team.
12. Meanwhile, Mike Condon’s value obviously takes a major hit with Anderson’s return. Considering that Condon was let go by two other organizations over the past 12 months, it’s remarkable how often he played while Anderson was out. A total of 28 of his 32 games played came in December, January, and February. At one point he played in 24 consecutive games, which included four back-to-backs. His numbers during that time were average at best (2.73 GAA, .905 SV%), but it’s unlikely he disappears entirely out of fantasy relevance now that he’s proven he can handle the workload.
13. It’s worth at least noting that Brett Connolly has 17 points in his last 31 games. A top draft pick that is still only 24 years old, looks like there’s some life in Connolly’s career yet. He doesn’t have the first-line upside that we figured he had six years ago, but if he’s producing like this with minimal ice time, I think he can salvage a second-line future in a year or two. Depending on whom the Capitals sign in the off-season to fill the same job. Alternatively, he’d be one to watch if he gets scooped up in expansion. He has eight points in his last six games.
14. Kings’ defenceman prospect Paul Ladue notched his first NHL point in just his second career game on Thursday. He’s skating in a limited role but is seeing secondary PP time.
I don’t think Ladue is a big-time fantasy prospect. He didn’t score more than 0.5 points per game in any of his three college seasons and is at the 0.5 mark in his first pro season at the AHL level. That said, he’s a right-handed shot and has flashed some goal-scoring chops at every level. Other than the unicorns, most defencemen are reliant on secondary assists to pile up points so this could be a situation where Ladue wasn’t getting much support.
Bottom line, there’s a long line of solid fantasy defencemen ahead of Ladue, so we’re talking injuries or trade before he really becomes relevant no matter what you think of his prospects.
15. Joe Thornton scored just his fourth goal of the season on Thursday and it was a unique one in that it was the first goal that he had scored that wasn’t an empty-netter. That is its own special kind of impressive. Thornton’s never been a big goal scorer, but his aversion to shooting has hit new heights this season. He has just 56 shots in 56 games. That’s David Desharnais-type aversion. You never want to go that deep.
Even without shooting the puck, I do think that there is another gear for Thornton to hit but it’ll rely on one of his teammates heating up or their power play starting to find itself. Still, I don’t expect him at point-per-game levels. It took some magic in the other direction to create that last season.
I’d have guessed the floor for Thornton was 60 coming into the year but he has to go a point-per-game the rest of the way to get there now so he’ll probably come up shy. He should do better than the 51 he is currently on pace for, however.
16. I don’t like the sophomore slump idea because it doesn’t apply across the board. Some players get even better, even as teams make adjustments, so I wouldn’t use it as a blanket philosophy. For instance, I’m not banking on Auston Matthews slumping next year. I assume he’s going to get even better. Each player is different.
Regarding Shayne Gostisbehere: He has positive shot differentials. He continues to be a play driving force just without the goal results. It really seems like the Flyers are valuing results over process, which is killer in the long run, but I could be wrong.
This kid is awesome. No doubt his declining shooting percentage has something to do with adjustments teams have made, as has simple regression. Still an elite offensive defenceman. Unleash him or drown.
17. It’s nice flexibility to be able to move Charlie Coyle to either center or the wing. This sort of interchangeability might help the Wild find different line combinations in a playoff series. And of course, coaches love having centremen play on the wing and having them sub in for faceoffs on their dominant side. I don’t think faceoffs matter in the aggregate but offensive zone and defensive zone draws can be important situationally. Every edge matters.
With the Wild playing as well as they have they will likely be buyers at the trade deadline. The flexibility that Coyle offers is even more of an advantage. They don’t have to key in on a forward at a specific position. They can add a player either on the wing or at center depending on who comes cheaper and if the fit is right.
18. You know, generally speaking, a career AHLer is a career AHLer. But I’m glad to see that sometimes, if an AHLer is having a special season, then his NHL club will give him a shot. Maybe not a fair shot, and maybe not a long look…but he’ll get one.
Kenneth Agostino was best known for his involvement in the Jarome Iginla trade to Pittsburgh. He had a solid college career and was ranked in our top 100 fantasy prospects, mostly because he was a winger in the Pittsburgh system. But I was told by my contacts that he did not have NHL upside and so his move to Calgary quickly pushed him down (and off) the list. Calgary didn’t tender him a contract offer last summer and he signed with the Blues for depth. But look at him now – he’s leading the AHL in scoring by a wide margin with 60 points in 48 games. The Blues called him up and gave him a shot and he has a point in each of his first two games this week. From out of nowhere, this guy is on my radar. A long shot but an interesting option. Agostino is only 24.
19. The return of Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau to the lineup means more than a boost to those players and their linemates in Florida. It also means a huge boost to puck-moving defencemen. If your top-scoring forward is a 50-point player, then the likes of Keith Yandle, Michael Matheson and Aaron Ekblad can be knocked down about 15 points each. Now, with two 65-point (or 70) players in the lineup, those three rearguards get that back.
20. Michael Grabner is on a 39-goal pace. He’s shooting at 21.1 per cent, which is obviously insane by any standard. Depending on the year he has, his shooting percentage bounces between 8 and 14.8. But he’s four goals away from reaching 30, so that seems in the bag. His breakout rookie campaign saw him score 34 goals on 228 shots, and this year he’s on pace for a shot total of 184.
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