Every Sunday during the regular season, we’ll share 20 Fantasy Thoughts from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s “Daily Ramblings”.
1. Something you haven’t seen since probably the early 2000s: Daniel Sedin, 14:02 of ice time on Saturday; Henrik Sedin, 13:30.
The phasing out of the Sedins may have already begun. If you’ve watched them recently, you’ll see why, as it appears that they have gotten a bit slower while the NHL has gotten a bit faster. As a result, new linemate Thomas Vanek was held to just 13:18 in his Canucks debut.
The Canucks are Bo Horvat’s team now, and he showed why on Saturday, scoring a pair of goals while nearly scoring a third later in the game.
2. For fantasy owners of Victor Hedman in leagues that count plus-minus, the following news may be a concern: he is paired with Dan Girardi. Say what you will about Girardi but when he’s on the ice the opposition allows a lot of shots. Even if he’s a renowned shot-blocker, giving up shots at a rate that ranks worst on the team consistently usually kills a player’s plus-minus. Just beware, Hedman owners, if that pairing sticks together.
3. Sonny Milano scored his first NHL goal Friday, assisted by linemates Nick Foligno and Oliver Bjorkstrand. It wasn’t a particularly standout goal but it was nice to see out of the gate from that line. Both Bjorkstrand and Milano will be relied upon for secondary scoring in Columbus and getting some good results early should help their confidence. Bjorkstrand is probably the more fantasy-relevant of the two but it was a good sign for dynasty owners nonetheless.
4. Opinions seem to be divided on whether Anze Kopitar will bounce back from his first sub-60 point season in his career (over a full season). He looked alright on Saturday, scoring two goals and adding an assist with five shots on goal in the Kings’ win over San Jose.
I’ve mentioned Tyler Toffoli as a rebound candidate because of his reduced shooting percentage last season. Keep in mind that Kopitar is in the same boat (8% last season, 12% career). With the Kings more focused on offence under a new coach, Kopitar should be a slam dunk to improve on last season’s 12 goals and a strong bet to improve on last season’s 52 points.
5. Boston’s second line: I will fully admit that I was skeptical Jake DeBrusk was the right person to slot on the second line in Boston alongside both David Krejci and David Pastrnak. However, not only did he fit in with that duo in his debut, he stood out.
Moreover, the unit was dominant at five-on-five, too. Each of the three forwards was over 53 per cent in shot attempt share, and DeBrusk and Krejci were both over 63 per cent. They weren’t settling for perimeter shots, particularly the rookie, as the son of former NHL enforcer Louie managed four shots at-or-below the hashmarks and between the face-off dots.
It was only one game but performing like that against the previous season’s Stanley Cup finalists is impressive. For owners in 12-team leagues that might have a roster space going to waste, DeBrusk is a decent speculative add, even if he won’t skate on the top PP unit.
6. Even with a different coach (Bruce Cassidy), the Bruins seem committed to not giving Frank Vatrano a shot at sticking in a scoring role. I’ve mentioned before his penchant for scoring in the AHL (38 goals in his last 38 regular season AHL games. Seriously). It’s also worth mentioning he has 18 goals in 83 games playing a minimal role on the Bruins over the last two years. It looks like it just isn’t happening for him.
7. Will Butcher: So far he has proven that the Devils made the right decision. Butcher assisted three times Saturday, all on the power play, although he did not take a shot on goal. In a game that saw coach John Hynes used 10 different forwards on the power play, Butcher and Damon Severson were the only two Devils blueliners to see power-play time. Butcher saw just 12:45 of overall ice time, yet 3:23 of that was on the power play. So, his role at least to start appears to be as a power-play specialist.
8. Once upon a time, Mike Green was the one defenceman that you wanted to own in fantasy hockey. Inserted on the power play by then-coach Bruce Boudreau, Green recorded back-to-back 70-plus-point seasons on a young Capitals team led by rising superstar Alex Ovechkin.
Green gave us a glimpse of that fantasy goodness on Thursday, assisting on all four goals in the Wings’ 4-2 win over Minnesota. Most fantasy owners don’t want a part of Green anymore (just 19 per cent Yahoo ownership), yet Green is still a top power-play blue line option for an NHL team. That should count for something, right?
The problem is, many are picking the Red Wings to finish last in the Eastern Conference. With a minus-20 last season, while taking 100 fewer shots per season than he did in his heyday with the Capitals, Green hardly has the same kind of appeal anymore. A 40-point season wouldn’t be far-fetched but the declining returns plus a history of injuries leaves Green on the waiver wire in many fantasy leagues.
9. Owners of Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov are no doubt thrilled about the quick point output from both players but the real mystery heading into training camp was going to be who the third man on the line would be.
That player is 21-year-old Jakub Vrana, who has three assists on the season. The former first-round pick should stick in the Capitals’ lineup for good this season and at 34 per cent ownership in Yahoo leagues, his fantasy value is already gaining steam. Vrana and Brett Connolly were thought to be the two main candidates for that spot. But right now that spot belongs to Vrana, who has the higher upside.
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10. If you picked Ryan Hartman as a sleeper, you were instantly rewarded on the Blackhawks’ opening night. Hartman scored a goal and added four assists while playing on a line with Patrick Kane, who scored a goal and chipped in three assists of his own. Both Hartman and Kane were a plus-5 in the game. Plus-5! Nick Schmaltz, the third man on the line, was no slouch either with two goals and an assist and a plus-4. The Hawks won’t score 10 goals every night but so far this line is clicking on all cylinders.
So, assuming that this unit sticks, we’ll have to consider Hartman and Schmaltz as potential waiver-wire pickups. Hartman is just nine per cent owned in Yahoo leagues, while Schmaltz is 17 per cent owned. If available, both are worth considering depending on the size of your league. Hartman is especially useful in leagues with physical categories, as he accumulated 70 penalty minutes and 121 hits last season.
11. With every fibre of my being I just want Alex DeBrincat to get a legitimate shot at skating with Kane. Not a half-a-game-and-then-pushed-down-the-lineup shot, but at least a half-dozen games to let them get some chemistry started. Kane can carry just about anyone but the pure offensive talent DeBrincat can bring is something very few, if any, players on the Blackhawks roster can contribute. If he’s available on waiver wires in 12-team leagues, make sure you need that last bench spot. DeBrincat, if everything breaks right this year, is a Calder candidate.
12. One of the breakout stars of 2016-17, Nikolaj Ehlers, will be worth every penny the Jets are paying him (average annual value of $6 million). His primary points per 60 minutes at five-on-five is top-30 in the league over the last two years, and keep in mind he spent a couple months of his rookie season playing in Winnipeg’s bottom-six. Whenever a 19- and 20-year old can compare favourably to other established wingers on elite offensive teams in production like T.J. Oshie and Phil Kessel, you have a good idea of how productive Ehlers has been and can be.
I’m not sure Ehlers will ever be a point-per-game player but it’s worth noting that he managed 64 points last year with only 12 power-play points. If he can regularly be used in prime power-play minutes, he has 70-point seasons ahead of him. He won’t stuff real-time stats but he’ll be solid everywhere else.
13. This is a friendly reminder that Paul Maurice likes to use Adam Lowry on Winnipeg’s top power-play unit (the one with Mark Scheifele and Patrik Laine). That means a few things for the Jets:
– In the absence of overusing one unit, it means the time is more spread out for both the forwards and the defencemen. That should ensure Ehlers will not get the bevy of PP minutes that his fantasy owners are hoping for.
– Jacob Trouba could be in for a double-digit power-play point season. Even if he only gets 45 seconds out of every two-minute power play, that would be a significant improvement over what he received last season. That bodes well for his overall production.
– If the team keeps using two defencemen on the second unit, Tyler Myers should be able to chip in some points once in awhile.
14. We’ll have to wait and see what he looks like but Derrick Pouliot’s fantasy value gets a huge boost with this move to Vancouver, since he won’t need to unearth someone like Kris Letang or Justin Schultz for power-play time any longer. But there probably won’t be many immediate fantasy ripples, as it seems as though the Canucks will take their time to develop Pouliot. If he’s ever going to be meaningful in fantasy hockey, it appears more and more likely that he’ll need to do so as a post-hype sleeper.
15. Jack Eichel has agreed to an eight-year contract worth $80 million dollars. Yes, that’s $10 million per season, which puts Eichel among the top 10 in salary in the league. Fortunately, salary cap leaguers will have the opportunity to plan ahead for the massive cap hit, as Eichel still stands to earn $925,000 on his entry-level deal for one more year before the $10 million kicks in.
And yes, absolutely, keep Eichel after this season in salary cap leagues (and it goes without saying in all other leagues). If you want to win, you pay your studs, and Eichel is a stud. Some fantasy leaguers thought Eichel’s ADP (average draft position) of 13.3 was too high but he was on a near point-per-game pace (57 points in 61 games), and he’s only going to get better. Among players that played at least 40 games last season, Eichel’s 0.93 points/game was 11th in the NHL. That was a number better than Jamie Benn, Vladimir Tarasenko, Tyler Seguin, John Tavares, and Ovechkin, among others.
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16. Nico Hischier is part of a question that I’ve been thinking about all off-season and still don’t have a good answer for. If I could only have one of Hischier or Nolan Patrick for this fantasy hockey season only, which would it be and why? Let’s assume it’s standard roto categories and they can be drafted for similar draft spots.
I would lean Hischier despite playing for a lower-scoring team just because he should get prime power-play minutes. I could be convinced otherwise.
17. Expect lots from Clayton Keller: Arizona lost its first game of the season in devastating fashion, blowing a 4-1 lead with 25 minutes left in the game and losing to Anaheim 5-4 in regulation. The Ducks were without Ryan Getzlaf in addition to the expected absences of Ryan Kesler, Hampus Lindholm, and Sami Vatanen. There is no excuse for that; it was just bad.
The silver lining is that Keller saw a lot of minutes. He finished second among Arizona forwards in total ice time at 19:44, behind only Christian Dvorak’s 22:03. Of note here is that Keller led all Coyotes forwards in five-on-five ice time, as Dvorak played nearly four minutes shorthanded.
Sometimes coaches like to ease in rookies but that wasn’t the case for Keller. If he can continue to play over 18 minutes a night, he should pass 50 points this year.
18. I have always had an affinity for the Blues’ Dmitrij Jaskin, though I think he’s better suited down the lineup in a checking role than on the second line in a scoring role. Jaden Schwartz being replaced on the top line by Vladimir Sobotka is of interest, however. The appeal for Schwartz this year was that not only would he skate with Tarasenko on the power play but at five-on-five as well. How things shake out with Alex Steen back in the lineup remains to be seen but if Steen returns and Schwartz stays where he is, it’s a ding to his potential production.
19. Julius Honka starts the season in the NHL despite concerns he would be sent down. Obviously, the top power-play unit in Dallas is John Klingberg’s, which means Honka can only do so much this year. It is a good sign for fantasy owners that the team thinks highly enough of him at this point to put someone else on waivers rather than just sending Honka down. We’ll see how long he lasts but this is a step in the right direction.
20. There has been a lot of love for Brock Boeser from some fantasy hockey owners, and I don’t get it. I mean, I get it; Boeser looks to be a very talented offensive player. Here’s what I don’t get: Do these people realize how bad Vancouver is going to be?
Last year, the Canucks were the second-lowest scoring team in the league on a per-minute basis. They were second-lowest the year before. Is adding Vanek and Sam Gagner going to change much? This team isn’t appreciably better than it was a year ago,. The Sedins are a year older, Vancouver produced one 20-goal scorer (and it was exactly 20), and the team-high was 52 points.
I’m not saying Boeser has a poor fantasy season but I think he’s a much better asset in keeper/dynasty leagues than re-draft leagues.
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