Every Sunday this season, we’ll share 20 Fantasy Thoughts from the writers at Dobber Hockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s “Daily Ramblings” on DobberHockey.com.
1. Steve Mason’s early-season struggles seem like an eternity away. Mason won his seventh straight game on Saturday, and he may even get the chance to make it eight in a row on Sunday against Detroit. To give you an idea about how things have improved:
October: 2-4-1, 3.46 GAA, .878 SV%;
December: 6-0-0, 2.30 GAA, .922 SV%.
That’s why you don’t press the panic button after the first month, kids. Maybe there is something to having the starting job all to himself now that Michal Neuvirth is on IR as opposed to having to split starts with him.
2. Viktor Arvidsson is a gem. I’ve been sitting on him in a dynasty league for a few years. I love the shot volume he has produced at every single level. He is a relentless pit bull of a player in the mould of Brendan Gallagher, but Arvidsson doesn’t see enough PP time to be a huge fantasy producer.
The flip side of not seeing enough usage to be a star is that the Predators have so much depth that a guy like Arvidsson sees enough minutes to be productive on the margins. He still sees (on average) nearly 16 minutes a night, with some time alongside big guns Filip Forsberg and Ryan Johansen.
Arvidsson is on pace for 51 points and 271 shots on goal (SOG). I bet he finishes around 45 points with closer to 230 SOG, although that could go higher if the power play minutes become more consistent.
3. Jason Spezza is struggling? OK, we’ll just fire him onto the wing with Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin (as was the case Thursday, when he picked a goal and two helpers). Not a bad ace to keep up your sleeve but the Stars would prefer not to have to use it often. The point of having Spezza is to have secondary scoring, which he hasn’t been able to provide. Half of Spezza’s 14 points have come with the man-advantage and only four of his seven even-strength points have come away from Benn and Seguin.
I don’t like that Spezza’s shot rate has slipped. He is on pace for just 184 SOG this season, a significant drop from the 200 SOG baseline he has established over the past few years. None of this matters until we see a healthy Jiri Hudler, though. I want to see the Hudler-Spezza combo before giving up. I still believe there is a dynamite second line there yet, because under the right circumstances, Spezza is explosive.
4. Because of injuries to Alex Galchenyuk and David Desharnais, Tomas Plekanec has been elevated to the first line with Max Pacioretty and Alexander Radulov. If you took my advice from the Sportsnet waiver wire report, you would have been rewarded with four assists and a plus-3 on Saturday. Of course, don’t expect this to happen every game, but you’ve got the opportunity here to add a first-line centre that is available in most leagues.
There’s also an opportunity here for the Canadiens to stretch Michael McCarron at centre and see if he can be a lineup regular. I love the physical tools that McCarron brings to the table but I’m not convinced he’ll be much of a fantasy option. He has 49 points in 78 games at the AHL level — not exactly elite scoring. I like my players to have mastered scoring in the AHL before taking the leap.
5. If you’re a Semyon Varlamov owner, looking at his numbers will make you cringe. Among goalies that have played at least eight games (of which there are 49), Varlamov is 44th in save percentage (.897) and 47th in goals-against average (3.34). That’s to go along with just five wins and a league-leading 12 losses. Bench him, bench him, bench him.
6. Troy Stecher ended Saturday’s outing as a minus-3, but he recorded one power-play assist and eight shots on goal. Canucks fans who watch this team regularly have loved this guy since pre-season, and he’s starting to deliver with four assists over his last six games. He’s seeing increased ice time and first-unit power-play time due to the extended injury absences of Alexander Edler and Chris Tanev. Since the Canucks lack a true offensive-minded defenceman (which drove the team to add Philip Larsen this off-season), the power-play QB job might be Stecher’s to keep even when the defence gets back to full strength.
7. Is Sergei Bobrovsky Vezina Trophy material? He’s currently tied with Carey Price for the league lead in wins (16), while holding a goals-against average (1.98) and save percentage (.932) that are both top 10 in the NHL. Bobrovsky has also been extremely hot over his last six games, where he has a sparkling 1.32 GAA and .947 SV% and wins in his last five games. Both he and the Blue Jackets were a gamble before the season, but they are both paying off in spades.
8. The deal with Zach Parise is that he’s old and can no longer drive offence on a nightly basis the way he used to. He’s a 60-point guy now but plays such a physical game that he can’t get into all 82. So now he’s a 70-game player who will score at a 60-point pace. The result of all these factors is something closer to 50-55 points.
It is worth monitoring Parise’s minutes. He has lost over a minute of ice time per game from last season and much of that has come on the power play where he has bounced between the top unit and the second unit. If he is limited to the second unit, he becomes a 45-point guy.
9. How about Matthew Tkachuk as a single-season fantasy asset? By chipping in three assists on Saturday, Tkachuk has 15 points (6g-9a) in just 27 games. He also channels his father Keith by adding 49 penalty minutes. The fact that he is already producing in his rookie season bodes very well for his future prospects. He has sleeper potential in next season’s drafts.
10. After an insanely slow start to the season, Anders Lee now has seven goals and nine points in his last nine games. Who saw this coming!?! He has been seeing top unit PP time off and on, but much of this hot streak has been accomplished at even strength. Lee has been shooting the puck more frequently. I’d suggest that as awesome as this hot streak is, it’s unlikely to continue.
11. Among the many things to be disappointed about the Islanders this year, Alan Quine not getting a shot with John Tavares has to be up there. He looked good in the playoffs with Tavares but hasn’t had a sniff this season. Meanwhile, Jack Capuano still rewards Andrew Ladd with plum-line spots. Ladd deservers a few games on the fourth line until he snaps out of it, so that Quine, Lee and others can get a crack on a top line.
12. Marko Dano has given us reason to believe in his fantasy value at times during his career, but he has come up short when it comes to sustained production. It’s worth mentioning that he has been bumped up to the Jets’ top line with Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler. Like the Jets, he fell short on Saturday, not scoring a point in just under 15 minutes of ice time. He is worth adding to your watch list for the time being.
13. Drake Caggiula was promoted to the Oilers’ top line earlier this week. You know the rules: play with Connor McDavid, produce like a star. I swear, tracking the line changes for Edmonton is going to be a season-long endeavour and it could result in you cobbling together a 65-point player out of a bunch of waiver wire pickups.
14. It’s also worth noting that Leon Draisaitl continues to stay hot despite being dropped from McDavid’s wing. He’s still seeing top unit PP time and the Oilers’ power play is picking up steam so he should never fall off entirely. It would really be something if he could start carrying a line of his own. I might take the Oilers seriously if they became more than a one-line team. I think Draisaitl will finish in the low 50s for points but we’ll see how long the PP stays productive.
15. It’s a bit shocking to see Joe Colborne become so irrelevant. He’s been buried on the fourth line skating less than 10 minutes in several games recently. Remember, Colborne closed last season on a tear with 10 goals and 22 points in the final 24 games, finding a home on the Flames’ top PP unit. He then opened this season with a hat trick.
It isn’t like Colborne got paid this summer and is resting on his laurels. He only got two years at $2.5 million per season from the Avalanche. Apparently, the Flames were smart to let him go.
16. Between the Henrik Zetterberg–Anthony Mantha–Tomas Tatar line combo and the Jimmy Howard injury, the Red Wings have found a bit of magic. The line combination, in the unlikely event that it sticks for the duration, has the potential to push Mantha up over 45 points this season. I’d pencil him in for the low 30s for now, and assume the line gets broken up when they hit a wall (could be a week, could be a month) or when someone (ahem – Zetterberg) gets injured. It’s also got Tatar rolling. Although Mantha’s points haven’t been great, he’s a huge body (six foot five, 221 pounds) who shoots well.
17. Injured on Tuesday, Julius Honka (upper-body injury) has a great future with the Stars but has zero fantasy relevance this season. I think he makes the team full time next year, but has little impact fantasy-wise. Expect him to start being useful to your team in 2018-19.
18. Back from the dead: Cam Ward. His first three starts were terrible, but since then he’s actually been fantastic. Better than fantastic: amazing. He’s making a believer out of me. For this year, that is. I don’t think he can ever make a long-term believer out of me after what I saw from him the last few years.
19. Keith Yandle’s consecutive games almost ended Tuesday. He took a shot off the foot Monday and was supposed to be “out for a while,” but ended up playing. That being said, I suspect he’ll be playing at half-speed for the next couple of months. So if you were expecting 16 points in his next 28 games you can probably dial that down to eight or nine points. Call it a hunch.
20. There is opportunity for Peter Holland to produce in Arizona that there simply wasn’t in Toronto. The Coyotes are essentially where Toronto was last season. With that, we could see Holland build on what was an intriguing season. He scored 27 points in 65 games, but could do a little more for the Coyotes with the right kind of bounces. The upside is 30 points in 50 games, although I doubt it happens.
What I wonder is if Holland’s arrival pushes one of Brendan Perlini or Christian Dvorak to the AHL, at least until Martin Hanzal is traded. Perlini was AHL Rookie of the Month in November before the Coyotes called him up. He had 12 points in nine games, including a seven-game points streak.
