Every Sunday this season, we’ll share 20 Fantasy Thoughts from the writers at Dobber Hockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s “Daily Ramblings” on DobberHockey.com.
1. It’s been two months of HEAT from veteran goaltender Brian Elliott. Great to see him rebound in the second half.
I do believe it’s worth questioning if Elliott can be a 60-game starter. He’s never started more than 48 games in a season. Any time his workload has been high he has either struggled or gotten hurt. Sure, he has put together some unconscious runs of elite play in the past few years but they’ve never been sustained for more than a month or two.
I’m fine with some inconsistency, mind you. It will be interesting to see what fantasy owners remember come fall and it’s time to draft again. Elliott was the 15th goaltender off the board in the average draft this season. A lot will depend on how this playoff run goes as an extended run would certainly rebuild even more trust. Also, he’ll need to be re-signed but I can’t imagine the Flames are averse to bringing Elliott back. I suspect he’ll go in that 15-range once again, making him a slightly undervalued No. 2 option, which is perfect.
2. Mathieu Perreault continues to hold a hot stick. With the game-winning goal on Saturday, Perreault now has 12 points over his last nine games. One of those late-season pickups who is a difference-maker right now. He’s moved from the Mark Scheifele-Blake Wheeler line to the Bryan Little-Patrik Laine line, but he hasn’t missed a beat.
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3. The quietest 60-point season goes to Nikolaj Ehlers. I know that dedicated fantasy owners aren’t sleeping on Ehlers but he is only owned in 72 per cent of Yahoo leagues. I’ll bet he continues flying under the radar come fantasy drafts next season but should be pushing to be picked in the top 50 depending on your settings.
4. Jordan Weal scored again Saturday and now has goals in four consecutive games. Playing on a line with Wayne Simmonds and newly acquired Valtteri Filppula seems to be working for him, so he may be a player to watch going forward.
Weal is trying to prove to the Flyers coaching staff that he deserves a one-way contract this summer. He’s potentially an unrestricted free agent because he’ll be 25 before June 30th (he turns 25 next month), has played three pro seasons, and has played fewer than 80 NHL games (he’s at 34 now).
Weal is one of those smaller players who has dominated at the AHL level and is still young enough to do something in the NHL if a team has to lean on him. The only team right now in a position to do that is … well, Vegas. If he signs with them as a free agent, I will be very interested in Weal’s sleeper status for 2017-18.
5. If you own multiple Wild players and were counting on them on Saturday, Pekka Rinne stomped on those hopes. Rinne posted a 31-save shutout, his third of the season. Although he has been trending downward over the last couple seasons, Rinne has been strong over the last few weeks with four wins, a 1.51 goals-against average, and a .941 save percentage since March 16.
6. The story with Jonathan Drouin is how effective he’s been on the power play. He is so creative that he can score in all phases but his per-60 scoring at 5-on-5 has been mediocre this season. Nearly half (25) of Drouin’s 52 points on the season have come with the man-advantage. The way the Lightning are clicking this year really raises Drouin’s ceiling. Get that 5-on-5 scoring up to the near-2.00 per-60 that he averaged in his first season and he’s threatening for a point-per-game pace.
7. I’m not nearly as high on Colorado’s Tyson Jost as I am on Brock Boeser (Canucks) and Clayton Keller (Coyotes), who were recently signed out of college. Still, Jost is a former lottery pick and certainly a top prospect. The potential for him to make an immediate impact would be more enticing if Gabriel Landeskog and Matt Duchene weren’t playing such listless hockey.
Just because Jost is suiting up for the Avs right now is no guarantee that he’ll make the NHL roster next season. Presumably he will make the team but I’d bet on some AHL time and a likely trip back to the world juniors.
8. Keller is widely considered one of the top prospects in hockey. Because of the team he is on, though, I would temper expectations for him next season to something below 53 to 55 points. High-40s is probably safe. But long term he’s a potential point-per-game player.
9. Charlie McAvoy is an awesome prospect and a genuine threat to Torey Krug’s status as the top offensive option in Boston at some point. Krug’s got a stranglehold on that spot, having his most productive season. His lefty shot gave him an advantage when everything ran through David Krejci on the left half-wall but with the team shifting away from Krejci the dynamic has changed. Now they are looking for David Pastrnak in the Ovechkin spot on the left circle with most of the playmaking taking place on the right half-wall. This setup favours a right-handed point man, which McAvoy is.
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10. I was extremely high on Brendan Gallagher coming into the season but once again he was derailed by injuries. He was also bumped off the top power-play unit for Alexander Radulov, and sometimes Andrew Shaw, during the Canadiens’ mid-season swoon. Add in the injuries to linemate Alex Galchenyuk and some constant line shuffling, it was a nightmare season for Gallagher.
What I can’t get past are the missed opportunities for him to breakout the past two seasons. Last season he was on the cusp and then busted his hand. Then his hand was mutilated by a Shea Weber slapshot this season. There’s no way this doesn’t have a lingering effect on his ability to finish.
It doesn’t appear that Radulov is going anywhere, which will limit exposure to top skilled players. We’ve seen Gallagher used primarily in a defensive role alongside Tomas Plekanec since Claude Julien took over. That could be his fate. He’ll turn 25 and is an excellent play driver. These are his prime years. Barring a big organizational change-up, I don’t think I’ll be backing Gallagher next season, although he should remain an elite shot producer.
11. Jacob Markstrom is set to undergo knee surgery so his season is done. No shock as we haven’t seen him play in over a month.
Markstrom showed some flashes this season but we’re coming up on the sort of career sample size where we can be pretty confident that he isn’t a potential No. 1. The most damning stat isn’t his career .906 save percentage, it’s his age. Now 27, Markstrom isn’t a young upstart. He’s got a three-year $11-million deal kicking in next season. It is safe to say that the Canucks would like to see his surgery/rehab go well.
Ultimately, Markstrom doesn’t appear to be anything more than a stopgap as the Canucks bridge to Thatcher Demko. I suppose that makes Markstrom an Ondrej Pavelec.
12. Is it possible to have a breakout season and yet still be a disappointment? You can’t help but feel that this is what Nino Niederreiter has achieved. After breaking out for 46 points in 61 games through the first three-quarters of the season, Niederreiter and the rest of the Wild have hit the wall. He has just six points in 17 games this month but he has still cruised to a career high 52 points, setting a new standard for himself.
Niederreiter is a two-way bull, driving play forward at an elite level for a Minnesota team that has otherwise largely been outshot all season long.
13. I tune in to Carolina Hurricanes games because of my well-documented fantasy hockey lust for Justin Faulk but I frequently come away impressed by Jaccob Slavin, who is undoubtedly Carolina’s top defenceman. He has paired with Brett Pesce to form one of the better pairings in the NHL. The Hurricanes seldom lose the possession battle with those two on the ice because of their good defensive skills and smooth puck moving. Slavin won’t always pop out but every now and then he makes a rush up ice that makes your jaw drop.
14. There’s no sugarcoating what a disappointment Faulk’s fantasy performance has been. I had him projected as a 50-point threat, instead he might not get to 40. Injuries are always a factor with Faulk but even considering those I was bullish on Faulk. With his big shot and the skills to create the lanes to use it, the package is so tantalizing. I think I’ll always be getting roped in by Faulk.
15. Jeff Skinner has 32 goals on the year. Can you imagine Skinner with a genuine playmaker? He’s spent most of his shifts skating with some combination of Victor Rask, Derek Ryan and Lee Stempniak. But then, maybe that’s the brilliance of Skinner.
16. This year’s rookie class is insane. Provorov probably won’t get a Calder vote despite being the No. 1 defenceman on a Flyers team still kind of in the playoff hunt (mathematically). My love for Zach Werenski is well-established but I don’t know that he has had the better season than Provorov. Werenski’s stats are better but swap their situations and I’m sure Provorov could be a 50-point defenceman. Provorov has had Andrew MacDonald shackled to him for over 60 per cent of his shifts and hasn’t drowned in the process. That’s a Calder-worthy performance in most years.
Provorov may never reach his full potential in fantasy because his game is as uniquely geared to offensive production as Shayne Gostisbehere’s but he is the better all-around defenceman. It’s why he is already by far their time-on-ice leader.
17. Wayne Simmonds kicked off the season blazing-hot with 29 points in 32 games. A career-year was in the cards. Nope. Apparently not. Not even a top-three season for him. Just 23 points in his last 46 games, and that slump has been going on long enough to have me concerned about next year. That being said, his fancy stats indicate a lot of bad luck. He’s seeing a career high for ice time, as well as offensive zone starts, so production should be up not down.
18. Thanks for nothing, bud. Gustav Nyquist has just finished his age 27 season and it was horrible. But he has 15 points in his last 15 games. So once again he’s teasing us with a hot streak that will make us take a chance on him next year. I had visions of 70-plus potential from him. Now I expect 50 points from him next season and my ‘hope’ is for him to reach 60. Not much of a hope though. This really was supposed to be his year.
19. J.T. Miller has 10 points in his last 22 contests. Prior to that he had 46 in 56, which hints at near point-per-game ability. He’s still only 24 (just turned) and I think he’ll lead the Rangers in points next season, with Chris Kreider hot on his heels. Though Kreider seems to be getting into injury trouble, so I wonder if that holds him back from ever truly busting out. Just nagging minor stuff that he plays through, but the kind of stuff that catches up to a player.
20. Huge news for the Senators as they have signed top goaltending prospect Marcus Hogberg to a two-year deal. He is set to come over immediately and play at the AHL level on a tryout, which will help him gain valuable North American experience.
Hogberg posted a .932 save percentage in the top Swedish league this season. That he’s 23 and heading to the AHL next season means there shouldn’t be much of a wait before he makes an impact. We’ll know more after seeing his performance at the AHL level.
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