Every Sunday this season, we’ll share 20 Fantasy Thoughts from the writers at Dobber Hockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s “Daily Ramblings” on DobberHockey.com.
1. It was T.J. Oshie night for the Capitals on Saturday, as he scored goals number 27, 28, and 29 to go with one assist. Oshie has never reached the 30-goal mark, so he’s picked the right time to score, as he’s a UFA this summer. Example #3792 of a player coming through in his contract year. Someone will pay him the big bucks.
But a closer look reveals that Oshie has had a ton of luck on his side, as his incredibly high 24.2 shooting percentage is the highest in the NHL among players with at least 50 games. I would say this is not a fluke if Oshie normally has a high shooting percentage, but we’re talking about a player whose career average sits at 13 per cent.
So, multiply that natural regression by a possible negative impact of signing with a team that has fewer offensive options than the Capitals and you it could be a significant drop-off per game next season. It may not be as noticeable as it would be had Oshie played a full season (he has missed 13 games). In the end, what you could have next season is a 20-25 goal, 50-to-55 point player.
2. Senators’ fans and fantasy owners alike have to be wondering when the scoring will return for Bobby Ryan. He’s been without a point in four games and has produced just three points in February and March combined. Sure, he was injured for part of that time, but that’s still only three points in 11 games.
Ryan has been receiving the power-play time and overall ice time, but the problem is that he hasn’t been shooting the puck as often. With 93 shots on goal, he has averaged fewer than two shots per game. Not what you want from a goal scorer. In Anaheim he posted four 30-goal seasons; but in Ottawa, he hasn’t even cracked 25. Ryan is not a player you should overvalue.
3. One particular up-and-comer made his NHL debut on Thursday and scored his first NHL goal on Saturday. That player is John Hayden, who recently signed with the Blackhawks out of Yale University. The 6-3, 223-pound forward had a nice stat line in this game, taking four shots on goal along with seven hits playing on a line with Richard Panik and Jonathan Toews. Give him a look in keeper leagues, particularly those that count hits.
4. Points have been difficult to come by for Charlie Coyle over the last month. After looking like a breakout candidate earlier this season, Coyle has only a single goal in his past 15 games and just two in his past 32 – one of them being an empty-netter. Included over that stretch was a 10-game pointless drought. If you are trying to make room for a hot waiver-wire grab, Coyle might be your odd man out.
5. Markus Granlund is turning into a decent NHLer and possibly even another Granlund that you could consider for your fantasy roster (although with far fewer assists). Markus fired seven shots on goal in a losing cause Saturday. He entered this game with five points in his last five games and currently sits just one goal shy of 20.
6. All I ask is, where was this goaltending from Brian Elliott earlier in the season? The same could be said for Mark Giordano’s production. With a goal and two assists on Friday, Giordano is salvaging his season and now could even reach 40 points. Over his last eight games he has six points. After a miserable first two months (nine points in 26 games), Gio has basically been on a 0.5 point per game pace the rest of the way.
7. With two goals on Friday, Kyle Palmieri has scored a team-leading 25 goals for the Devils and is making a run at a second consecutive 30-goal season. If you’ve deployed him on your team this past week, he’s come through in a big way, picking up five goals and an assist over his past three games. The Devils play again on Sunday, so if he continues his hot streak he could be a real difference maker in some head-to-head playoff series.
8. J.T. Miller scored his 20th goal on Friday, making this his second consecutive 20-goal season. Where he’s made further progress is in his assist total, which is already 11 more than last season. As a result, Miller now has his first 50-point season and leads the Rangers in scoring with 52 points. He has a chance to hit 60.
Miller has had a high shooting percentage (16-17%) over the past couple seasons, so it will be interesting to see if he can sustain it. Guess who his linemate has been for much of the season? None other than Michael Grabner, he of the 19 per cent shooting accuracy. Grabner will be at the top of many bust lists next season because of his out-of-nowhere goals total. But has that luck rubbed off on Miller? Certainly his career has been on an upward trajectory, but we may need to limit our expectations.
9. Aaron Dell is a backup, so that’s not entirely impressive but his record is outstanding at 10-4-1 with a 1.90 GAA and a 0.936 SV%. That’s a guy I want to spot start. The real reason to get Dell on your radar is because all of San Jose’s games next week come in back-to-back situations. He’s looking at two starts next week. The Sharks have another back-to-back the following week. Suddenly, Dell is looking awfully relevant. Although do take note of the Sharks’ brutal schedule with seven of their final 10 coming on the road, including all of those back-to-backs.
10. Brayden Point has been awesome filling in for Tyler Johnson. Point’s play is giving GM Steve Yzerman a ton of leverage and ammunition going into RFA negotiations with Johnson this summer.
Even after all the selling at the trade deadline, I have no idea how the Lightning are going to keep their team together. This was supposed to be the year that they’d go for it once more. That was the point of signing Nikita Kucherov to a bridge deal instead of locking the superstar up long term. They might still get the job done. But whether through trade or getting squeezed in contract negotiations, Johnson is likely to suffer to keep this team under the cap next season.
11. With a goal on Saturday against the Islanders, Oliver Bjorkstrand has six points (4g-2a) over his last seven games. It helps that he was on a scoring line with Nick Foligno and Alexander Wennberg, like he was for this game. Now that he looks as if he’s here to stay, Bjorkstrand is a solid late-season waiver wire pickup.
12. Betting against Alex Ovechkin in fantasy hockey hasn’t often worked. But, I’d point out that he’ll be 32 going into next season potentially dealing with the wear and tear of a lengthy playoff run (don’t laugh too hard). There’s also the looming specter of the Olympics, which Ovechkin says he is going to play in whether the NHL joins him or not. Cutting two weeks out of his season would not endear Ovechkin to fantasy owners. And if the NHL does go to the Olympics then you are adding even more wear and tear.
Now, Ovechkin’s durability is one of his many freakish qualities. He has missed more than four games in a season only once, missing 10 games back in 2010 and he went ahead and tied for second in scoring that season anyhow. But between this year’s World Cup, this season, the playoffs, next season and the Olympics, we might be looking at Ovechkin having played in the neighbourhood of 200 games in a 20-month span.
13. Ovechkin ended his career-long goal-scoring drought earlier this week but we’ve been talking about his down season all year. His minutes, shooting and scoring are all down this season. This all leads me is to wonder if this is the season we look back at as the year we passed the torch from Ovechkin, the greatest goal-scorer I have ever seen, to the next generation.
Boiling it all down, what I am essentially asking is if Patrik Laine is going to take over the league similar to the way Ovechkin did. If this is the passing of the guard, it’s been a great ride. But I don’t think anyone is ready to count the “Great 8” just yet. Where are you looking to draft him next season?
14. The long-term state of Ottawa’s crease? Craig Anderson has one more year remaining. Mike Condon is a UFA and their AHL goaltenders have been so bad they had to trade for Condon when news about Anderson’s wife broke. They basically gave up on Andrew Hammond even though he has another year. They won the Matt O’Connor sweepstakes a couple of years back but he’s been forced into stints in the ECHL.
There is a bright light at the end of the tunnel in prospect Marcus Hogberg, who has shredded the top Swedish league this season, so any potential goaltender signing might be more about improving organizational depth.
15. Josh Ho-Sang has six points in his last seven games. He’s a high-risk, high-reward talent and at this point, it looks like it’s leaning towards the ‘reward’ side. Maybe we end up with several years of a Sean Avery-type of gong show, or maybe the attitude and lack of a mouth-filter is blown out of proportion. Either way, the production is real and it looks like he can be a good fantasy asset as early as next season (or this year, if you can add players this late).
He has tremendous skill, but his points in the AHL were modest because he had only Bracken Kearns and Steve Bernier to pass to down there. Now we’re seeing what he can do if you put skill guys around him. He can actually keep up!
16. The Penguins signed one of the more coveted college free agents Tuesday in Zach Aston-Reese, from Northeastern University. After posting 43 points in 41 games last year, he finished this season with 63 in 38. That’s good enough to lead the nation in points and in goals (31). He also finished with 72 penalty minutes, so the potential for some multi-category action is there.
17. On Gavin Bayreuther, signing with the Dallas Stars to a two-year deal: He was the second-highest scoring defenceman in the nation in January, but slowed a little and suffered an injury. He finished with 29 points in 30 games. Dallas is a great place for a defenceman to sign – if he’s a stay-at-home guy. So, Bayreuther needs to step up his defense because with Esa Lindell, John Klingberg and Julius Honka he doesn’t have a chance.
18. With two more on Saturday, Jeff Skinner has quietly reached 25 goals. He can score in bunches, as this was his fifth multipoint game of the season. Skinner flies under the radar in Carolina, so you may be interested to know that he has reached at least 25 goals in three of his last four seasons.
19. Adam Lowry has some value in deep multi-category leagues, especially with all the power play time he has been seeing of late. The ceiling isn’t exactly high. He has 10 points in 19 games since the All-Star break, which is decent production in really deep settings. He is flashing some skills as a net-front man, but he’ll always be most valuable in fantasy because he picks up big hit totals. Keep an eye on Lowry’s shot volume as well. He’s got 33 shots on goal in those 19 games post-All-Star and is picking up steam.
20. Interesting to note: Eric Staal is seeing less power play time this year than any of his last three seasons. That’s both in terms of percentage of his team’s available time with the man advantage, as well as average power play minutes per game. The uptick in his production is strictly at even strength, which is a great sign because the numbers haven’t been artificially boosted.
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