Every Sunday this season, we’ll share 20 Fantasy Thoughts from the writers at Dobber Hockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s “Daily Ramblings” on DobberHockey.com.
1. Devan Dubnyk has been more impressive than any of us could have expected. At the all-star break, he’s first in save percentage (.936) and goals-against average (1.88), and second in wins (27). So can he keep it up in the second half, or is he a sell-high candidate?
We’ve seen this kind of run from Dubnyk before, as he posted a similar .936 SV% and 1.78 GAA in his first 39 games with the Wild two seasons ago. So, we are beyond the point of writing him off as a fluke.
2. I don’t believe in the rookie wall, but if it exists, could you kindly peel Jimmy Vesey off of it? Vesey’s gone scoreless in the past 10 games. Not necessarily his fault as he’s seen over 13 minutes of ice time in only three of those games. The power-play time has been hit or miss as well. He did see some top unit PP time Wednesday night but failed to cash.
This decline in minutes was bound to happen once the Rangers got healthy. For one thing, Pavel Buchnevich is a better player/prospect, and of course Rick Nash and Mika Zibanejad are ahead on the depth chart as well.
3. Ryan Johansen’s 36 points in 49 games projects to 60 points, which is okay but not great if compared to his pre-season projection. But he is projected to score just 13 goals, which further devalues him fantasy-wise with goals more rare than assists.
Snipers like James Neal and Filip Forsberg might be good for Johansen’s assist total, but not his goal total. So in the Preds’ current system, he appears to be fitting in as the playmaker rather than the goal scorer. Players can change and evolve throughout their career, but it appears that Johansen is trending toward a Joe Thornton or Henrik Sedin-type of player. Not a bad player to own, but one whose point totals will be rather assist-heavy.
4. Brandon Saad ended a seven-game drought with a goal Thursday night. He has just two points in his last 12 games. This can happen to even the best players, but Saad is especially susceptible since he doesn’t receive top PP minutes. Still, he should produce a little more consistently than this as a supremely talented top-line player. He is on pace for 60 points, and I would expect him to finish right in that ballpark.
5. Andrej Sekera scored a pair of goals Thursday night, a rare feat for him but it’s all part of an extended hot streak since he took over as the defenceman on the Oilers’ top PP unit. He has 17 points in 25 games since the start of December, including six PPP. Sekera is on pace for 39 points this season, but with this deployment he should be able to match or surpass his career high of 44.
6. P.K. Subban notched his first point (Thursday) in four games since returning from injury. He has not taken advantage of the No. 1 opportunity since getting back. Roman Josi will get back from his concussion at some point, which will close the door for Subban to put up elite numbers. He should still be relevant but not top tier. I am loath to sell low but I do wonder about shopping his big name around.
7. Tomas Hertl recently returned to the lineup after missing over two months with a knee sprain. We know how strong the Sharks were during the second half last season, and Hertl was at his most effective after Jan. 1 last season (31 points in 46 games). You should absolutely be trying to acquire Hertl on the cheap right now. He’s available in less than 40 per cent of Yahoo leagues
8. Bryan Rust is flying on the Crosby line. I hinted recently that he could be another Chris Kunitz, but slightly lesser. Kunitz was a 55-point player who briefly became a 75-plus player with Crosby. Rust is more of a 45-point player who could briefly become a 65-plus player next season or in 2018-19, if he manages to hold onto this gig.
9. Conor Sheary is a different animal altogether. He gets knocked around a lot, but his talent is very high-end. On a lot of teams, he wouldn’t get enough opportunities to even crack the lineup and his short leash would ensure a quick trip to the AHL.
That was even true with this team, but he forced the coach to keep him in the lineup because he looked good in limited ice time. That eventually landed him a shot on the Crosby line – and now he doesn’t need to be big, he just needs to keep up. And he does. And now he’s flourishing. And it will only get better, as long as he stays healthy. This year his pace is for 62 points and I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets 68 or 69. But next season – much more to come.
10. I saw Calvin Pickard play live earlier this season and he’s not a bad goalie at all. More importantly, Pickard should be receiving at least two-thirds of the starts now that Semyon Varlamov is out for the season. Unfortunately, the Colorado defence simply looks lost out there, and it’s only going to get worse should the Avs strip their roster as one of the only two guaranteed sellers at the trade deadline (Arizona would be the other).
11. Henrik Lundqvist is not the Lundqvist of old anymore, but he has turned things around to some degree lately (no more than two goals allowed in each of his last four games). He could be a piece to dangle in a possible deal, as the other owner might be willing to pay for a name brand.
12. We haven’t given the Canucks enough credit for unearthing a gem in Sven Baertschi. He’s no game-breaker but after scoring a pair of goals Thursday night, Baertschi is contributing at a 20-goal/45-point pace. That’s better than what you’d expect out of the second-round pick they traded to get him. Sure, maybe they miss out on someone with higher upside, but so far they’ve come out ahead. Baertschi has found a home alongside Bo Horvat and has value in deep leagues or as a streamer in shallower leagues.
13. Matthew Nieto had himself a night Wednesday firing seven SOG, including one that found twine for his second goal in eight games with the Avalanche. He’s getting time with Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog, which would be a better opportunity if the Avalanche weren’t such a disaster.
It would also help if Nieto was getting power-play time. He saw 21 seconds of man-advantage time, which is 21 seconds more than he had seen since joining the Avalanche. This is Nieto’s best opportunity for fantasy relevance. He needs to jump on it the way Baertschi has in Vancouver.
14. Interesting move from the Tampa Bay Lightning dealing defenceman Nikita Nesterov to Montreal (a division rival) for Jonathan Racine and a sixth-round pick. It’s a low bar to clear but Nesterov was one of the Lightning’s top four defencemen this season.
Nesterov is not so impactful that this signals that the Lightning are packing it in but he was fantasy relevant on the margins, picking up some secondary PP minutes. He was on a run of six points in eight games before being traded. Nesterov isn’t necessarily an upgrade for the Canadiens but is added defensive depth, something every team is looking for.
15. Kyle Brodziak will miss five weeks due to a foot injury. That injury isn’t particularly relevant except that it sparked the recall of top prospect Ivan Barbashev. Doesn’t seem like the latter is going to get a shot at fantasy relevance, though, which is a shame because he’s a top prospect who has scored 37 points in 44 AHL games. Perhaps next year, after some more seasoning. In the meantime, this is good experience for him.
16. Patrick Sharp has been hit or miss for the Stars and you can understand why when looking at his deployment. Sharp’s best seasons have come with genuine superstars. It seems that Patrick Eaves is getting those minutes and he has earned them.
I’m not convinced that Sharp is even a better player than Eaves at this point but he has maintained those blazing wheels of his. Sharp is at the same point as Patrick Marleau where he just doesn’t have the same punch in his game but can still dazzle on occasion. Elite skating will keep these two around for a while longer, too.
17. Ducks prospect Kalle Kossila is a prospect to get on your radar. He put up big numbers in four years of U.S. college hockey and has 27 points in 33 games in the AHL this season.
18. I’ve been pushing to get Thomas Greiss in my leagues and I think it would be wise if you did the same. The Isles are going to have a huge second half and he’s going to be ridden for a ton of games. That being said, they still won’t make the playoffs – too little, too late in my opinion.
19. Petr Mrazek simply hasn’t been any good all season, with his numbers getting even worse into December (3.52 GAA) and January (3.32 GAA). Jimmy Howard grabbed the starting job away from Mrazek before Howard was injured. Now Mrazek is even having a tough time holding off third-stringer Jared Coreau for starts.
20. I do like Coreau as a prospect; I always felt he was better than people had been saying. And his six-foot-six frame is ideal for today’s NHL. But no, he’s not going to be the goalie of the future over Mrazek no matter how bad Mrazek is this season. Let’s not forget what he did last year and the year prior. And Mrazek is younger than Coreau – only a few months, but I wanted to drive the point home that Mrazek at 24 is younger than most goalies who take on a starting job. So by all means – grab Coreau. I’m sure he’ll help you this season as much as a .907 SV% can help. But for future seasons I’m firmly on the Mrazek wagon.
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