10 teams that can win it all: Anaheim Ducks

Every Tuesday for 10 weeks Ryan Porth gets you set for a fresh NHL season (fingers crossed) with in-depth looks at the top 10 teams that will compete for Lord Stanley’s Cup in the 2012-13 season.

I know what you’re thinking. “Why did he pick Anaheim over Detroit or San Jose or Nashville?”

It’s simple. The Ducks have a higher ceiling than any of those Western Conference foes.

Last year’s first half in Orange County, where the Ducks boasted a 10-22-6 mark on Jan. 4, was a complete disaster – so much so, they fired head coach Randy Carlyle and threatened to deal away budding star Bobby Ryan.

But the Bruce Boudreau-led Ducks righted the ship late in the season and even crept back into the playoff picture. This offseason, the legendary Teemu Selanne delayed retirement (again) and GM Bob Murray gave the defence a new look. Is it enough to return to the playoffs, let alone contend in a parity-laden NHL?

Here are three reasons why the Ducks are and aren’t capable of capturing their first Cup since 2007:

Bob Murray made the right call to not trade Bobby Ryan, thus keeping the Ducks’ dynamic offensive trio intact. Ryan, Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf are an unstoppable force when they are collectively clicking on all cylinders. Just ask anyone who faced them at the end of the 2010-11 regular season, as the three combined for 75 points in the final 18 games in the spring.

Ryan, Perry and Getzlaf each saw their point totals take a step back in 2011-12, but they all performed at a higher level once Boudreau took over behind the bench. When they’re on the ice together and dominating the opposition – physically, mentally and statistically – few trios are better.

Perry scored 50 goals two years ago; Ryan could one day pot 50; Getzlaf is an elite playmaking centre. When you combine that talent with veterans like Selanne and Saku Koivu, the Ducks represent one of the league’s most explosive offenses.

As mentioned, the Ducks’ first three months of the 2011-12 season were forgettable. It was quickly a lost season after the lofty preseason expectations. In their final 44 games, though, the Ducks went 24-14-6, a 100-point pace if maintained over an 82-game season.

The whole team was simply better under the direction of Boudreau, but one player who shined in the second half was goaltender Jonas Hiller. His 2.12 GAA in 41 starts after New Year’s Eve was a 180-degree turnaround from his 3.18 GAA in the precluding 32 starts. The defensive play in front of Hiller was better, but so was the Swiss netminder himself.

Being able to enter the season with Boudreau at the helm is only beneficiary for the Ducks, as they played good hockey once they got acclimated to the new system. If they play the same way throughout the 2012-13 campaign, they will return to the playoffs.

Everyone in Anaheim has been waiting for Hiller, 29, to put together a full, successful season. In four-plus NHL seasons, the goaltender best known for his 2011 vertigo episode has been awfully streaky. His up-and-down 2011-12 campaign was a portrait of his career thus far. His career stat line from October through December is 48-49-13 / 2.81 / .913. From January on, it reads 69-42-8 / 2.30 / .922.

This is a goaltender who can be a catalyst at times. In 2009, Hiller carried the eighth-seeded Ducks past the heavily-favoured Sharks, all the way to a second-round Game 7 against Detroit. That just so happens to be the only postseason appearance of his career.

Despite a 73-start campaign a year ago, Hiller’s resume seems incomplete. But if he can be a pillar in Anaheim’s net from start to finish, it would go a long way for the Ducks.

While Perry, Getzlaf, Ryan and Selanne are all great and difficult to contain, the Ducks are too reliant on those four individuals to do the heavy lifting offensively.

Consider: The Ducks had only six players finish the 2011-12 season with double-digit goals, tied for last in the NHL. After Perry (37), Ryan (31) and Selanne (26), Andrew Cogliano ranked fourth on the team with just 13 goals. Opponents can simply key in on the Big Three, plus Selanne, and win games.

The front office didn’t do anything to improve secondary scoring this offseason, which means the onus will fall on youngsters like Devante Smith-Pelly, Nick Palmieri and Emerson Etem to provide help. And don’t forget: the Ducks also traded away Lubomir Visnovsky, who led all defencemen in points just two seasons ago, to the New York Islanders.

Anaheim’s blue line has softened up in recent years – or, in different terms, since Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger exited stage left. The defence as a whole has been ranked in the league’s bottom half in GAA each of the last four seasons.

Visnovsky isn’t known for being a shutdown defender, but his departure puts pressure on 20-year-old Cam Fowler to progress quickly. Fowler, the team’s 2010 first-round pick, has a career plus/minus of minus-53. Veterans Sheldon Souray and Bryan Allen were brought in on three-year deals, so that gives the Ducks a deeper defence corps with experience. However, nobody on that back end scares the opposition with their sheer presence à la Niedermayer and Pronger.

If the new faces don’t mesh with Fowler, Francois Beauchemin, Toni Lydman and Luca Sbisa, Hiller could find himself on an island some nights.

Something Boudreau will have to instill in his team is an identity. In the years following the lockout, the Ducks were known to be big and bad, tough and muscular. Not anymore. Even two years ago their third-ranked power play was a difference-maker. Last year? Not so much, as the unit finished 21st.

Defensively, the Ducks have gotten bigger and stronger with Souray and Allen replacing Visnovsky and Sheldon Brookbank. Perhaps they can be tougher to play against? Perhaps the Big Three can bounce back and return to their 2010-11 form? Perhaps Hiller can put it together for a full season for once?

Teams without an identity tend to struggle with consistency – a word that couldn’t be used to describe the Ducks in recent years. Boudreau has some work to do in this area.

Prediction: Anaheim will surprise many (not this writer) en route to a playoff berth, but their currently constructed defence and liable depth will keep them from getting past the likes of Vancouver, Los Angeles or St. Louis when the games matter most. But be warned: this team is talented enough to make a playoff run.

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