The Metropolitan Division has been a regular home for the Stanley Cup in recent years and three of their teams reached the Eastern Conference Final in 2019. You have the regular contenders in Washington in Pittsburgh and a number of teams on the rise, which should again make for some interesting theatre among these eight teams.
There is no clear favourite here heading into 2019-20.
So as part of our season preview package, we’re taking a look at the best- and worst-case scenario for every team. Here is a look at the Metro teams, who we’ve ranked in order of how we think they’ll finish.
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Washington Capitals
2018-19 outcome: 48-26-8, Lost to Carolina in Round 1 of the playoffs (seven games)
Major additions: Richard Panik, Radko Gudas
Major subtractions: Andre Burakovsky, Matt Niskanen
Best case scenario: The reigning Metro regular season champions four years running just keep doing what they’ve always done. Alex Ovechkin is as close to a lock for 40 goals as you can be in the world’s best league, and he actually goes over 50 goals for the second year in a row, which would also push him over 700 in his career. Youngster Jakub Vrana takes another step and that goes a long way to lifting a secondary scoring line to new heights. In a contract year, goalie Braden Holtby goes off and wins his second Vezina Trophy. Lacking a Stanley Cup hangover this year, the Caps climb back to the top of the mountain in June.
Worst case scenario: The Caps’ power play slowed in the second half last season, and rather than that being a blip, it becomes a point of concern around the team. Holtby doesn’t recover and finishes with a save percentage at or below league average for the third year in a row. This, coupled with a decent showing in a handful of games from Ilya Samsonov, ends Holtby’s time with the team and he heads to free agency. At the same time, huge gains are made by the likes of New Jersey, Carolina, Philadelphia and the NY Rangers, leaving the Capitals just on the outside of the playoffs.
Carolina Hurricanes
2018-19 outcome: 46-29-7, lost to Boston in Eastern Conference Final (four games)
Major additions: Jake Gardiner, Joel Edmundson, Ryan Dzingel, James Reimer, Erik Haula
Major subtractions: Justin Faulk, Calvin de Haan, Curtis McElhinney
Best case scenario: As Andrew Berkshire noted when he drilled into the numbers to come up with three teams on the rise in 2019-20, there’s actually reason to believe Carolina got unlucky last season. If that’s true Carolina wasn’t a mirage as a conference finalist — they’re a legit Cup contender. A full year of Nino Niederreiter, further growth from sophomore Andrei Svechnikov and the acquisitions of near-30-goal guys Ryan Dzingel and Erik Haula give the offence a key and significant boost. The defence is already loaded with various types of blue liners, but Jake Gardiner and Joel Edmundson may be upgrades to what was already in place.
Worst case scenario: Subpar goaltending has sunk many teams before, and that is a legitimate fear/concern for Carolina’s end of season goals. Prior to last season Mrazek had spent two-straight years hovering around a .900 save percentage. That’s the exact save rate new backup James Reimer was able to cobble together in Florida last season and after a few cracks at becoming that team’s No. 1 in recent years (when Roberto Luongo was injured), it’s clear he doesn’t have the consistency in his game to do it. The Panthers were a top 10 offence last year and didn’t get to the playoffs because they had the league’s second-worst save rate. That same outcome could bite the Hurricanes.
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Pittsburgh Penguins
2018-19 outcome: 44-26-12, lost to NY Islanders in Round 1 (four games)
Major additions: Alex Galchenyuk, Brandon Tanev, Dominik Kahun
Major subtractions: Phil Kessel, Olli Maatta
Best case scenario: Following a frustrating season and an embarrassing first-round exit, Evgeni Malkin comes back as motivated as ever and dominates, while challenging for the league lead in scoring. That alone lifts Alex Galchenyuk over 20 goals for the first time in four years and tracks him for a career season. Sidney Crosby is as good as ever and remains in the running for the Hart Trophy once more, while Kris Letang stays healthy and has some Norris buzz around him. The best of the best on this team stay healthy and, as a result, they lift up everything around them and once again carry the Penguins to the Cup final.
Worst case scenario: Injuries and lack of depth remain a serious issue. After the top pair, the rest of the pieces on the blue line become a real concern and it isn’t long before fans are wondering why the team acquired Erik Gudbranson and Jack Johnson in the first place. A slow, offensively deficient blue line does no favours for Matt Murray, who faces the toughest workload of his young NHL career. The Penguins barely hang on to a wild-card spot, but are again swept in the first round by a superior (and younger) team. Rebuild talk picks up and off-season trade rumours follow Malkin once again.
Philadelphia Flyers
2018-19 outcome: 37-37-8, Missed playoffs
Major additions: Matt Niskanen, Justin Braun, Kevin Hayes
Major subtractions: Radko Gudas, Cam Talbot, Michal Neuvirth
Best case scenario: Alain Vigneault’s NY Rangers had a top-15 power play in every year but one he spent with the team, and by lifting the Flyers’ putrid PP from 2018-19 to that level, Philadelphia will see a noticeable boost right away. Sophomore Carter Hart doesn’t go through a slump at all and provides the Flyers with the kind of steady — even elite — goaltending they haven’t had since either Ron Hextall or Bernie Parent, depending on your perspective. Ivan Provorov takes a big step and is seen as a top-10 blueliner, while Claude Giroux eclipses 100 points for the second time in three seasons and Nolan Patrick finally hits and excels on the third line. Philadelphia not only returns to the playoffs, but challenges for the division title and surprises everybody.
Worst case scenario: With a few rising young teams in the Metropolitan Division the worst case for the Flyers is they get passed by the likes of New Jersey and the Rangers and kind of get stuck in the NHL’s mushy middle. A slow start for Hart snowballs into another season of questionable netminding, which messes with the 21-year-old’s confidence. By January this is looking like another lost season and the team considers dealing Patrick and also doing something a bit bigger by dangling Shayne Gostisbehere. For the first time since the early-1990s the Flyers miss the playoffs for a second year in a row and have to seriously consider where the team stands and what its next moves should be.
New Jersey Devils
2018-19 outcome: 31-41-10, missed the playoffs
Major additions: PK Subban, Jack Hughes, Nikita Gusev, Wayne Simmonds
Major subtractions: John Quenneville, Steve Santini, Keith Kinkaid
Best case scenario: Averaging more than 26 minutes a night for the first time since he left the Canadiens, PK Subban stays healthy and elite and launches the Devils’ offence from the back end. By the end of the season, his offensive contributions rival Erik Karlsson and the 30-year-old Subban returns to the Norris conversation. At the same time, Cory Schneider stays healthy and MacKenzie Blackwood teams up with him for a monster tandem. Taylor Hall stays healthy and in the running for the Art Ross. New Jersey qualifies for the post-season, then wins a round, which makes pending UFA Hall feel very comfortable with their Stanley Cup prospects, so he signs a multi-year extension prior to the negotiating period in late June.
Worst case scenario: It just doesn’t work. The true bottom now would be that the Devils stagnate, remain near the bottom of the East, and are forced to trade Hall for futures by the trade deadline rather than risk losing him for nothing. It becomes apparent right away that Wayne Simmonds is indeed not bouncing back, while Nikita Gusev is more Vadim Shipachyov than Alexander Radulov in his first real bid at becoming an NHLer at age 27. Without much development or promise the silver lining is that New Jersey again gets a high draft pick, but that losing culture can be awfully hard to play out of.
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NY Islanders
2018-19 outcome: 48-26-8, lost in Round 2 to Carolina (four games)
Major additions: Derick Brassard, Semyon Varlamov
Major subtractions: Robin Lehner
Best case scenario: Last year was not a fluke, but the start of something sustainable with a core of talent now locked in for a number of years. Just like Lehner broke through as a Vezina finalist behind Barry Trotz’s defence, Varlamov sees a similar bump and the Islanders somehow fly under the radar only to surprise the hockey world again. And it doesn’t stop there. This time they make it beyond the second round, leaving long-time Metro superpowers Washington and Pittsburgh scratching their heads and wondering what the heck happened here.
Worst case scenario: Injuries have followed Varlamov through his career and that continues in 2019-20, while Thomas Greiss has a difficult time keeping up No. 1 duties. Age-related decline hits Johnny Boychuk and as the team’s shutdown defence falls off its terrific pace from a year ago, the offence still doesn’t pick up from any of Mathew Barzal, Josh Bailey and Anders Lee, and the Islanders get passed by the three intriguing, hard-charging teams behind them in the division. They miss on the playoffs and it becomes clear this core had a bit too much luck in 2018-19, but are now locked in for the foreseeable future.
NY Rangers
2018-19 outcome: 32-36-14, missed playoffs
Major additions: Kappo Kakko, Artemi Panarin, Jacob Trouba, Adam Fox
Major subtractions: Neal Pionk, Jimmy Vesey, Kevin Shattenkirk
Best case scenario: You can see how a perfect storm (in a good way) could develop in Madison Square Garden. Panarin has already proved that he can achieve at a high level without Patrick Kane and that he is great at making his own linemates better. With this in mind, Mika Zibanejad sustains his 70-point totals and Pavel Buchnevich breaks through finally. But if they get that second line going, the Rangers could really impress. Kaapo Kakko comes in straight from a strong season in Finland’s top league, and we’ve seen a number of young players transition very well from the Liiga before. Chris Kreider is playing for a contract and that is one heck of a motivating factor. Further, young guys such as Lias Andersson and Filip Chytil will figure into all this somehow at some point this season. On the blue line, Jacob Trouba is more than ready for No. 1 duties and leads the Rangers in all situations. Adam Fox even impresses as an NHL rookie. Behind them, Henrik Lundqvist bounces back to some degree, but his workload is shaved down a bit because Alexandar Georgiev is ready for a bigger role. This saves Lundqvist for the playoffs, and the Rangers are this year’s shocking upset team.
Worst case scenario: It’s a year — or two — early and the youngsters just aren’t ready to lead a playoff charge yet. The depth of the blue line becomes a bigger issue than people realize and Lundqvist, unfortunately, isn’t able to reach back to even a hint of his glory years. By the time the trade deadline rolls around GM Jeff Gorton has to trade Kreider, a pending UFA, which returns more prospects and picks to help with the future, but takes more away from the present. The goalie question hits the front burner with Lundqvist ending this season just a year away from his own contract expiring, but the team needing to use that money to improve the roster. The Rangers get another high pick, but the transition that looks so promising today becomes much more messy than it seems.
Columbus Blue Jackets
2018-19 outcome: 47-31-4, lost in Round 2 of the playoffs to Boston (six games)
Major additions: Gustav Nyquist
Major subtractions: Artemi Panarin, Sergei Bobrovsky, Ryan Dzingel, Matt Duchene
Best case scenario: Goalies are voodoo, so yes, it’s possible Joonas Korpisalo — he of 90 career NHL games with a career .907 save percentage — is actually a terrific story this season. And if not, maybe Elvis Merzlikins enters the building in a positive way. If that happens, Columbus could really overshoot expectations this season. They still have a Norris contender in Seth Jones. They still have emerging No. 1 centre Pierre-Luc Dubois alongside 40-goal man Cam Atkinson. UFA pickup Gustav Nyquist is coming off one of his best years and could be a nice 20-goal, 50-point producer, while new opportunity could be afforded to Oliver Bjorkstrand, who took a step back last season. Playoffs could be a stretch either way, but staying in the running late into the season would be a huge win.
Worst case scenario: The inexperience in net is what we thought it was and the Blue Jackets have the worst save percentage come April. The loss of so much elite talent takes a significant toll and as good as Dubois and Atkinson are in their own right, just removing Panarin from their line craters production. There is no bounce back from Alexander Wennberg, little or no development from younger players and depth as well becomes a major issue for this season. After trading away virtually all of their draft picks last year, the Blue Jackets have to have a mini sell-off in the face of disaster to rebuild the prospect cupboard and any progress made in 2018-19 with the fan base is lost.
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