Dangle: Potential trade market for Maple Leafs, Part II

Tyler-Bozak;-Maple-Leafs;-analytics

Tyler Bozak. (John Russell/getty)

Last week I went through some of the names I think the Leafs will try to trade at the upcoming trade deadline. The first three names I came up with were P.A. Parenteau, Brad Boyes, and Michael Grabner.

Let’s look at three more names who I think could move, including one argument I think a lot of you are going to yell at me for.

ROMAN POLAK

I remember sitting in the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia on Day 2 of the 2014 NHL Entry Draft. A trade was announced: The Toronto Maple Leafs had traded Carl Gunnarsson and a fourth-round pick to the St. Louis Blues for Roman Polak. Light mumbling filled the arena with fans quietly discussing the deal. After a few seconds, one fan yelled at the top of his lungs “That’s a horrible trade!”

That reaction was before we realized the Leafs were retaining money on Gunnarsson’s contract, too.

Time has been a bit more kind to the Leafs regarding this trade. Every time I criticize Polak on Twitter my mentions fill with Blues fans begging to take him back. I wondered if the hip injury Gunnarsson sustained with the Leafs somewhat made him damaged goods and that just might be the case. Enough about Gunnarsson, though. Here’s what Polak is.

He’s a strong, tough defender. He’s also a right-handed shot, which is somewhat of a premium on the blueline. He’ll hit, he’ll block shots, he’ll fight. He’s not a good possession player at five-on-five but that’s not why you get a player like Polak. He’s second on the Leafs for shorthanded ice time – that’s why you get him.

Who needs him?

In my last post about Leafs’ trade possibilities I mentioned a penalty-killer like Grabner could help with the Nashville Predator’s 28th-ranked penalty kill. Could Polak be a fit there, instead? Maybe, but the Predators are one of the few teams in the league that don’t actually need another right-handed defender with Ryan Ellis, Seth Jones, and, oh yeah, Shea Weber.

The Minnesota Wild are another playoff-bubble team with a bad penalty kill but with plenty of right-handed options when healthy, and the Tampa Bay Lightning are another team with a bad PK but they need more offence from their back end than Polak is likely to provide.

One team that might be able to use Polak is the Boston Bruins. They’ve already used 10 different defenders this season, and while Collin Miller and Kevan Miller are decent right-handed options, Polak would be an upgrade on Adam McQuaid, another right-handed defender. A similar fit would be another divisional rival: The Ottawa Senators, who have the league’s 24th-ranked PK.

What’s the cost?

The 2014 trade deadline saw the Dallas Stars trade Stephane Robidas, fresh off a broken leg, to the Anaheim Ducks for a conditional fourth-rounder. That might be conservative for what the Leafs can expect if they trade Polak.

Here’s a much fancier one: Last trade deadline the Arizona Coyotes traded Zbynek Michalek and a conditional third-round pick to the Blues in exchange for Maxim Letunov, a 2014 second-rounder. Both Polak and Michalek are right-handed defenders and it’s not like either is an offensive dynamo.

Michalek’s cap hit on his expiring deal was $3.2 million and this year Polak’s expiring deal is worth $2.75 million. I don’t think a second- or third-round pick or prospect is unreasonable, especially at the trade deadline when every GM in the league thinks they’re one move away from becoming the Gretzky-era Edmonton Oilers.

NICK SPALING

Sometimes I feel a bit bad for Nick Spaling. We always talk about Phil Kessel and his trade to the Pittsburgh Penguins. We often mention Kasperi Kapanen in that deal, as well as the conditional first-rounder the Penguins have to give the Leafs if Pittsburgh makes the playoffs this season. Meanwhile there’s Nick Spaling like, “I was in that trade too, you guys.”

When I spoke to Spaling at Leafs media day he seemed genuinely excited to be a Leaf and Mike Babcock has helped him make the most of his time in Toronto so far. Spaling has been the Leafs’ second-most used forward on the penalty kill behind Grabner. Once again, the question becomes which team with a struggling penalty kill can the Leafs help out?

Who needs him?

Nashville comes to mind yet again. Like I’ve said, their PK is 28th in a league with 30 teams. That’s bad. I’ve suggested Grabner as a possibility, I’ve floated the idea of Polak, but Spaling might be the most realistic option. With Mike Fisher out of the lineup, the Preds have Calle Jarnkrok getting top line duties, backed up by Mike Ribeiro, 22-year-old Colton Sissons and Paul Gaustad. If any team could use a little bit of depth at centre right now, it’s the Preds.

What’s the cost?

The great thing about acquiring a guy like Spaling is he’s affordable. The cost of depth players is depth picks. Last year’s trade deadline saw Tyler Kennedy and Marek Zidlicky go for a conditional third-round pick each. James Sheppard was traded for a fourth. Brian Flynn fetched a fifth-rounder. The exact cost of a player like Spaling isn’t quite clear but what is certain is that teams have an appetite for the peace of mind of depth in the playoffs.

TYLER BOZAK

It would appear that rumours of Tyler Bozak‘s post-Kessel demise have been greatly exaggerated.

Bozak currently sits tied for second in Leafs scoring with 16 points in 24 games. This puts the man I call “Boz Lightyear” on pace for his first 50-point season. Many naysayers, myself included, have to admit that Bozak has proven a lot of critics wrong so far this season. It also has to have Leafs management tickled pink as his success only helps his trade value.

The trick with Bozak is he makes $4.2 million against the cap this season and for the next two years. The guys you usually see moved at the trade deadline have expiring contracts, not two-plus years left.

Bozak isn’t a stranger to big minutes. In fact, he led all Leafs forwards in ice time last season. This year he’s fourth in that category but still averaging 17:11 per game, tied for the Leafs lead in power-play points, and he still plays the occasional shift on the penalty kill. He’s even good in the shootout.

One thing I’ll try to dispel about him: Everyone keeps saying he’s a defensive forward. Stop that. He’s not. That doesn’t mean I think he’s bad, it’s just that for years people said “he was forced to cover up for Kessel’s mistakes” and everyone just kind of went with that without ever watching and checking to see if it was true. He’s good, he’s just not Jonathan Toews.

Who needs him?

I promise not to bring up Nashville anymore.

Okay, I lied. Nashville!

Ribeiro and Fisher are both 35. Gaustad is 33 on an expiring deal worth $3.25 million. Their power play is middle-of-the-pack and their penalty kill is abysmal. They currently have over $10 million in cap space. This is a team that could probably use a guy like Bozak both now and down the line.

What’s the cost?

Just work with me here, okay.

At the end of my last article I said that I think Bozak is worth a first-rounder and if you disagree then you should fight me. I’m not pulling this claim out of thin air, folks. I researched that and, well, teams completely lose their minds at the trade deadline.

Here are the six pre-deadline deals that involved a first-round pick last season, excluding the giant Evander Kane deal between the Winnipeg Jets and Buffalo Sabres:

Perron had another year at $4.25 million when the Penguins acquired him. Vermette, whose production suggests he’s basically Bozak except older and left-handed, fetched a first and a prospect who’s actually currently on Arizona’s roster.

Look, I’m not saying it’s likely that the Leafs can get a first for Bozak, I’m just saying that the going rate for a decent centre at the trade deadline is a bucket full of diamonds in the passenger seat of a Bugatti being driven by a dinosaur. Don’t believe me? I have one more for you.

On April 3, 2013, the Washington Capitals acquired Martin Erat and Michael Latta from the Predators for Filip Forsberg.

At the time of the trade, Erat had two full years left on a deal that paid him $4.5 million against the cap, a full $300,000 more per season than Bozak. Forsberg, before we knew he’d be the beast he is today, was one year removed from being the 11th overall pick in 2012.

We now know that this was probably one of the worst trades of the past ten years. Did that stop GM’s from trading away first-round picks? See the list above for your answer.

There are a few other factors, too. Maybe the Leafs would prefer to focus on trading other players before the deadline instead. They can always trade Bozak at the draft, if they like. Another major issue here is Bozak has a partial no-trade clause. That could obviously stifle trade talk with certain teams but it doesn’t mean a deal can’t get done.

I will now end this post so you can yell at me and call me stupid. Don’t worry, I’ll write about more players another day!

Sportsnet.ca no longer supports comments.