With NHL teams nearly through 20 per cent of the 2015-16 season, we’ve entered territory where a player’s season totals will no longer be affected as drastically on a game-by-game basis. Beyond that, two players who have the exact same point totals now might have very different values for the rest of the season, especially if one had front-loaded early production while the other has shaken off the rust and returned to form.
To make sure you have an advantage over other teams in your league, use tools like Frozen Pool to compare players. And of course, keep these buy low and sell high recommendations in mind:
Four Buy-Low Players
Marian Gaborik – Although Gaborik had a dismal October and was toiling on the third line this past weekend, that just makes him a better buy low. The reality is Anze Kopitar has started this season slow, just like 2014-15 – and remember he finished with 51 points in his final 52 games. Once Kopitar heats back up, Gaborik will be back on his line. Gaborik is not the player he once was, but expecting him to post 45-plus points in the team’s remaining games is realistic so don’t be afraid to grab him now while his value is artificially low.
Oscar Klefbom – Most poolies did a double-take in September upon hearing Edmonton had inked Klefbom (who had only 23 points in 77 career games) to a seven-year extension worth nearly $30 million, especially since the team had already spent $33 million to land UFA Andrei Sekera not even three months earlier. But all it took was an injury to Justin Schultz to get a peek at Klefbom’s potential and realize he is for real. Klefbom is an ideal buy low – he’s done enough to earn a more prominent role even once Schultz returns, but hasn’t exploded enough for his price to be driven up or, in some cases, for someone else in your one-year league to have even snagged him from the waiver wire.
Craig Smith – Smith’s SOG per game is still at three, his PP Ice Time is holding steady from last season, and he remains firmly entrenched in the Nashville top six. What all this means is his early scoring slump is a short term variance that should end soon. But before it does, use it to your advantage by painting Smith as a player on the decline to get him on your roster in time to reap the benefits once he turns things around.
Mikael Granlund – With each passing season, it’s looking less likely Granlund will end up paying the kind of dividends Minnesota expected when it drafted him ninth overall in 2010. Be that as it may, he’s not only a better player than what he’s shown this season, but the nearly annual Mikko Koivu injury has yet to occur; and once it does, Granlund’s role (and production) will increase. Snag Granlund in a trade now so you’ll be able to benefit when he picks up his scoring pace.
Four Sell-High Players
Max Domi – At this rate, Domi could have more goals in his first three seasons than his dad tallied in a career that spanned a decade and a half. But this pace won’t continue. The reality is since 1980 there have been 47 forwards who, like Domi, made their NHL debut at 20 years old and played 70-plus games that same season. Not even 25 per cent of them reached 60 points as a rookie. Of those players who did hit 60 points, nearly all played for more offensively potent teams than the Coyotes, who barely managed to score two goals per game last season. In one-year leagues, if someone is interested in trading for your Domi you owe it to yourself to at least listen.
Patrice Bergeron – With point per game numbers so far, some poolies might have visions of Bergeron returning to his former 70-plus point level. But if you look beneath the surface, his SOG rate is unchanged, his Offensive Zone Starting percentage remains well below 50 per cent, and his nine power play points are only five fewer than he totaled during all last season. Cash in on this short-term variance to trade Bergeron for a player who gives you a realistic chance at 65 points this season. When the dust settles Bergeron will only end up with his usual 55-60 points.
Thomas Vanek – Because Vanek was a point-per-game player as recently as 2012-13 and produced well for three teams during 2013-14, some poolies are looking past his unremarkable debut season for the Wild and think his fast start to 2015-16 is sustainable. They should think again. Not only was Vanek firing fewer than two SOG per game through this weekend (versus three-plus during his productive seasons), but in the first game after Zach Parise’s injury Vanek had his lowest ice time in two weeks. For the season, he ranks eighth in Total Ice Time among Wild forwards and fifth in power play TOI. Vanek won’t produce more than he did in 2014-15, so use his early production and Parise’s injury to sell high ASAP.
Jason Demers – This is the perfect example of the hot-team effect. Demers is a 30-point defenceman who’s enjoying a stretch of nice production. But because he’s on the high-octane Stars (second in the NHL in goals scored through the weekend), poolies are convincing themselves he’s a sure bet for 40-plus points. And although there is a small chance he’ll somehow reach that threshold, especially if the Stars deal UFA-to-be Alex Goligoski during the season, you have to play the percentages. And those percentages say sell high on Demers to get a player with a more realistic chance of sustainable production.
