The San Jose Sharks went all in this season.
They made a blockbuster move to acquire superstar defenceman and impending unrestricted free agent Erik Karlsson from the Ottawa Senators as training camp opened, and pushed even more chips into the pot with a trade-deadline move for fellow July 1 UFA Gustav Nyquist from the Detroit Red Wings.
The Sharks finished second in the Western Conference, survived two seven-game series against the Vegas Golden Knights and the Colorado Avalanche, thanks in part to some controversial calls along the way. But their luck ran out against the St. Louis Blues as they fell short of winning the first Stanley Cup in franchise history and getting Joe Thornton’s name engraved on hockey’s top prize.
San Jose’s six-game defeat to the Blues in the Western Conference Final leaves the club with seven UFAs — including several core players — four restricted free agents and a glaring need in goal, giving general manager Doug Wilson lots to think about this off-season.
Here’s a closer look at the team’s biggest question marks as it aims to retool for another run at the Cup.
Will they move on from Martin Jones?
In the Sharks’ biggest game of the season, Tuesday’s 5-1 defeat in Game 6 to the Blues, the six-year veteran turned in a dud, allowing four goals on 18 shots for a .778 save percentage.
Notwithstanding the result, a short-handed San Jose club — that was missing a trifecta of stars in Karlsson, captain Joe Pavelski and Tomas Hertl due to injuries — still managed to outshoot St. Louis 26-19 and dominated the glut of play with a Corsi for percentage of 58.54 at 5-on-5, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Despite a stretch of strong play in these playoffs, the 29-year-old finished with a .898 save percentage, 3.02 goals against average and sported a minus-9.73 goals-saved above average at 5-on-5, good for last among qualified goalies, according to Natural Stat Trick.
This comes on the heels of a 2018-19 campaign during which Jones recorded a 2.94 GAA, .896 save percentage and a league-worst minus-32.7 GSAA at 5-on-5.
Jones has compiled a save percentage below league average in two out of his four years as the Sharks’ starting goalie, with his two most recent seasons checking in under that standard.
The Sharks came under fire for opting against upgrading their goaltending at the trade deadline, but with five years remaining at $5.75-million AAV — including a three-team no-trade clause — left on Jones’s six-year deal, will Wilson look to find another solution?
Can they bring back Erik Karlsson?
The two-time Norris Trophy winner’s looming free agency has had armchair GMs drooling over his CapFriendly page for years, but in just over a month’s time, it could become a reality.
Karlsson and the Sharks kick started talks at the beginning of this year, but it remains to be seen whether he will return to the perennial Western Conference contender or jump ship.
The Tampa Bay Lightning and his friend Victor Hedman are the latest, although repeated, rumoured suitors, if they can clear up the necessary cap space.
Regardless of the destination, Karlsson will be looking for a raise on his $6.5-million annual average salary. It’s been rumoured that star rearguard Drew Doughty’s eight-year, $11-million contract signed with the Los Angeles Kings last off-season set the market for Karlsson’s next deal.
The soon-to-be 29-year-old’s spotty injury history — including a groin issue that limited him to 53 regular-season games, a severely broken ankle and a torn Achilles — could scare off some teams. However, Karlsson is still one of the best defencemen the world, managing 45 points in those 53 appearances and boasting a Corsi For percentage of 59.22 at 5-on-5, which was tops among D-men who logged at least 500 minutes.
Evolving Wild pegs his next contract at $9,899,306 across eight years. The Sharks have a slew of other players to bring back, but they also have $24,703,333 in projected cap space, according to CapFriendly.
The ball is likely in Karlsson’s court.
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Will the captain return?
Come July 11, Pavelski will be 35 years old. He’s set to become a UFA just 10 days earlier.
In his 13 years with the Sharks, the captain has a been a picture of consistency, posting at least 61 points and 20 goals in eight of his last nine seasons with the single exception being the lockout-shortened 2012-13 campaign.
But it’s the number on his driver’s licence and the years he’ll be looking for on his new deal that likely concern the Sharks.
In the past, Wilson has re-signed free-agents-to-be well before their deals expired, including Pavelski’s last deal in 2013, but Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman says the potential term has kept the two parties away from a new contract.
“The really interesting thing about the Sharks is that a lot of their guys they’ve re-signed well before they got to free agency, they actually did the last time with Pavelski, Friedman told Sportsnet 650 on Tuesday.
“Look Logan Couture got signed a year before he was a free agent, Brent Burns a year before, [Marc-Edouard] Vlasic a year before, Jones a year before — they don’t let guys go to free agency. Now, I think the thing with Pavelski is he is a little bit older, and I think what’s happening there is again, term is the issue.
“If you look at what happened between them and Patrick Marleau, it was over term, they didn’t want to go to the third year that Toronto gave him.”
To San Jose’s benefit, because of Pavelski’s July 11 birthday, he will miss the June 30 cutoff to qualify for the league’s 35-plus contract, which would make it responsible for his cap hit regardless of whether or not he remains active.
But Pavelski hasn’t shown any significant signs of decline and he is coming off a resurgent season where he had 38 goals in 75 games, plus was 14th (16.59) in individual expected goals among forwards with 500 minutes played at 5-on-5, per Natural Stat Trick.
Evolving Wild projects his next contract at $7,544,950 AAV on a three-year deal. Is that enough to bring him back and will the Sharks have adequate cap space?
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What happens with Timo Meier’s next deal?
At 29.4 years old, the Sharks’ roster was nearly two years older than the league average (27.9).
Core players such as Pavelski (34), Burns (34), Couture (30), Karlsson (28), Thornton (39) and Vlasic (32) are all out or nearing the tail end of their prime.
That’s why getting 22-year-old Meier signed to a cost-effective, long-term contract is so important to this team if they hope to hold open the window to contend.
Meier, who broke out for 30 goals and 66 points in his second full season and added 15 points in 20 games in the playoffs, is likely in the second tier of a loaded RFA class that features Mikko Rantanen, Sebastian Aho, Mitch Marner, Brayden Point, Matthew Tkachuk, Patrik Laine and Brock Boeser.
But Meier’s Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5 (56.27) was 16th among forwards with a minimum of 500 minutes on the ice and was third behind only Brendan Gallagher (23.61) and John Tavares (22.12) in individual expected goals (19.84) under the same conditions.
In fact, Evolving Wild estimates that Meier could sign a new deal in the same vein as Tavares’ six-year, $33-million extension that kicked in for his age-22 season in 2012-13, forecasting the ninth pick in the 2015 draft to get $5,889,783 over a half-dozen years.
If somehow San Jose manages to bring back Meier, Karlsson and Pavelski at Evolving Wild’s projected numbers, it would have $1,369,294 to bring back RFAs Kevin Labanc, Joakim Ryan and Dylan Gambrell, as well as UFAs Joonas Donskoi, Micheal Haley, Tim Heed, Nyquist and Thornton, or to fill the gaps in other ways.
Is Joe Thornton going to retire?
Speaking of Thornton, perhaps the biggest question facing the Sharks going forward is: will Jumbo Joe remain the face of the franchise, or was that his last kick at the can?
Thornton said after the Sharks’ elimination Tuesday that he hadn’t thought about his future yet.
The 21-year veteran has never hoisted the Stanley Cup, with the closest being in 2015-16 when the Sharks fell to the Pittsburgh Penguins in the final.
Thornton is slated to become a UFA on July 1 and will turn 40 a day later.
Despite his age, there’s no doubt the six-time all-star, Hart Memorial and Art Ross Trophy winner, and the league’s active points leader (1,478, good for 14th all-time) can still contribute.
Thornton had four goals and 10 points across 18 games in the playoffs, following a 51-point regular season. He compiled these numbers even though the hulking playmaker, who has never been known for his foot speed, had a pair of knee surgeries over the last few years.
Despite his continued success, Thornton has opted for flexibility in the final years of his career, inking one-year deals with the Sharks for $8 million and $5 million in the last two off-seasons, respectively.
It gives him the chance to decide whether to return for one more shot with a San Jose team that has been in the most playoff games in the league since 2004, with a .629 winning percentage across the regular season during that span.
The 2014-15 season was the lone year the club failed to qualify for the post-season (with Meier being its reward in the draft).
But do the Sharks have enough in the tank to make another run? And is the team’s history of sustained success enough to inspire Thornton to lace up his skates one more year?
Regardless, there’s a lot to be settled in San Jose.
