Expectations, which have been the Ottawa Senators friend in recent years, take on a new meaning in the year 2020.
It hasn’t escaped notice that the Senators are inching closer to owner Eugene Melnyk’s declared “five-year run of unparalleled success,” beginning in 2021.
Whether the Senators are actually that close to being seriously competitive is up for debate – realistically, it could take longer – but the point is that the days of revelling in 30th and 31st place finishes in the name of lottery picks and a deep rebuild are supposed to end in the coming year.
Even the spirited play of the 2019-20 Senators has itself turned the key toward unlocking the door to a more ambitious future.
Here’s a look at four major storylines for Ottawa in 2020, which figures to be a very important year for setting the franchise up for the next several seasons at least.
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Trade deadline – another phase of transformation
No sooner does the New Year arrive when the Feb. 24 trade deadline begins to loom large. In the weeks ahead, the task for general manager Pierre Dorion and AGM Peter MacTavish is to decide which players will be part of Ottawa’s future and which to treat as assets at the deadline. With 10 unrestricted free agents at the NHL level (Craig Anderson, Mikkel Boedker, Dylan DeMelo, Vladislav Namestnikov, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Tyler Ennis, Scott Sabourin, Ron Hainsey, Mark Borowiecki, Cody Goloubef), and four restricted free agents (Chris Tierney, Connor Brown, Anthony Duclair and Nick Paul), there are plenty of options.
As well as the Senators have played recently, especially on home ice, the question has to be asked – how different will this team perform if such key contributers as Pageau, Ennis and Anderson get moved at or before the deadline? Will a team have interest in the 38-year-old Hainsey? Namestnikov could certainly attract suitors. DeMelo and Borowiecki are expected to stay. However the changes impact the roster, a drop-off in performance is not the worst thing for a rebuilding team with five picks in the first two rounds of the draft.
Post-deadline, management’s work load continues with the need to sign a few of the UFA players who remain and all of the existing RFA players, plus others acquired through trade.
The draft: One for the ages
This time it’s different. Gone is the dread of the 2019 draft, when Ottawa did not have its own pick and was fortunate not to have to watch Colorado pick first or second overall (the Avalanche, wielding the Senators top pick, fell to No. 4). In 2020, the Senators not only have their own first round pick, they also have the San Jose Sharks first rounder, thanks to the Erik Karlsson trade. The listless Sharks have been hovering around last place in the West alongside the L.A. Kings and Anaheim Ducks (suggested song title: California Screaming).
Note that in the second round of the draft, the Senators have their own pick as well as the Columbus Blue Jackets and Dallas Stars second round selections. Despite a nice little run in December, Columbus is entrenched among the also-rans of the Eastern Conference while the Stars are in a dogfight to make the playoffs in the west. Ottawa could easily end up with four picks in the top 35 or so.
This draft looks deep and full of talent at the top end, so the Senators are among the teams looking to reshape their roster with a game breaker or two at the forward position.
Goaltending – who’s in and who’s out?
Given the number of young players on their roster and a shortage of elite talent, the Senators goaltending has been a blessing. Craig Anderson and Anders Nilsson have, for the most part, been solid, although Nilsson’s play in December was less consistent and Anderson tweaked a knee and did not play from Dec. 8-22. Now, Nilsson is sidelined with a concussion. He was placed on injured reserve late last week and there is no timetable for his return.
When he did start, Anderson bordered on the spectacular, posting a .977 save percentage in a 3-1 win over the Buffalo Sabres Dec. 23 (stopping 43 of 44 shots). Other than a rough start in Philadelphia Dec. 7 (the game in which he left with an injury in the first period), Anderson gave up just five goals in four starts versus Montreal, Columbus, Edmonton and Buffalo. His save percentage in those games? — .972, .947, .923 and .977. He was sub-.900 in Sunday’s 4-3 overtime loss to New Jersey, as the Senators looked sluggish in their first game after the break.
Throughout October and November, Nilsson had been the dominant Ottawa starter, but that gap has closed, and their numbers a closer match. Nilsson has a .908 save percentage to Anderson’s .907. Anderson has a 2.94 goals-against compared to Nilsson’s 3.18. Anderson’s record has improved to 6-8-1 while Nilsson’s has dipped to 9-9-0.
Given the probability that Anderson gets traded in the New Year, he’s getting hot and healthy at the right time, setting himself up to be a nice depth acquisition, or even a starter, for a playoff team. The hope and belief is that Nilsson will rebound and be the No. 1 Ottawa needs him to be for the foreseeable future. When he’s hot, Nilsson can be formidable. Ask the Boston Bruins, who pumped 40 shots at him Dec. 9 and could only score twice in a 5-2 Ottawa win.
With Anderson out for a couple of weeks, December provided an interesting sneak preview of an all-Swede tandem, Nilsson and Marcus Hogberg. Presumably this will be the pair not just for later this season but next year as well. Hogberg recorded his first career win on Dec. 19 versus Nashville and has shown an ability to battle back from shaky starts. Overall, heading into Monday’s scheduled start in Pittsburgh, Hogberg is 1-1-2 in four starts this season with a 3.10 goals-against and .903 save percentage.
Nilsson, 29, is under contract for next season at a reasonable $2.6-million cap hit. Hogberg earns $700,000 next season and does not reach RFA status until 2021.
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Players deserve better crowds
Here is an ongoing storyline: the Senators attendance situation. This competitive, hard-working team, led by the redoubtable Brady Tkachuk and the tireless Thomas Chabot, deserve better than the average gate of 11,652 through 18 home games. These are historically bad numbers — the attendance data provided to the NHL by ESPN shows you have to go back six years to find a team with a lower average gate (Florida’s 11,513 in 2014-15). It gets worse. The Canadian Tire Centre holds 18,652 for NHL games, so that average gate is 60.8 per cent capacity. As Ottawa blogger Graeme Nichols noted, that is the worst percentage gate in the NHL since the St. Louis Blues were at 59.6 per cent capacity in 2006-07.
Fans blame ownership, but surely the team’s effort and the expectation of incoming talent will pay off eventually in better home gates.
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