It wasn’t quite a playoff atmosphere at Air Canada Centre Monday night for a hard-fought, well-played, four-point Bruins-Leafs tilt, according to Hart candidate Brad Marchand, but — whoa, boy — are we getting warmer.
The goal celebrations are more animated, team defence is tightening up, and 19,000 home fans — allowing themselves to believe a little more each day — are belting out “Sweet Caroline” at full throat during TV timeouts.
“They’re not going to quit, we know that, regardless of the outcome of that game,” Marchand said of the Maple Leafs, moments after they beat the Bruins 4-2 and crept within a point of the third seed in the Atlantic Division. “It’s going to come down to a battle in the last 10 games here.”
Ain’t that the truth.
Due to a soft schedule and some breathing room at the top, we feel safe giving the Montreal Canadiens the Atlantic Division’s No. 1 seed. With a four-point “cushion” and a game in hand over the Bruins, we expect the second-seeded Ottawa Senators will make the playoffs as well.
After that, well, it’ll be a dog fight.
Following Monday’s loss, just five points separate the Bruins, Leafs, Islanders and Lightning. One of those clubs will secure an Atlantic spot (and draw a much more preferable first-round opponent). One will nab the Eastern Conference’s final wild-card spot and a date with whichever Metropolitan monster — Pittsburgh, Washington, Columbus — claims the toughest division in sports.
“It’s kinda that time of year. Every two points is so crucial,” Bruins winger David Backes said after Toronto swept their season series 4-0. “We don’t get points against this team all year…. We need to take that to heart. We can’t do anything about it now. Those opportunities are gone.”
So we look to the next 10 opportunities for the four teams clawing for two spots, with a particular focus on the youngest and most surprising of the bunch.
“I don’t know if I’d say it’s surreal. I’d say it’s exactly what we as players in the organization wanted. The leadership of the organization, even before I came, wanted to come in, set a tone, send a message and say we want to climb right to the top fast and consistently be there for a while,” now-healthy Leafs defenceman Connor Carrick said.
“It’s got to be cool to be a Maple Leaf fan right now. I get texts all the time from friends of mine, family [that say], ‘Love watching you guys play. You guys are a blast to watch, a fun team, a fun story to follow.’ “
So, what are the chances the story continues past April 9? Let’s handicap the four contenders’ burst to the finish line and predict two playoff teams.
[relatedlinks]
Games in hand
Heading into Tuesday night’s action, the Isles, Lightning and Leafs all have 11 games remaining, while the Bruins are down to 10.
Advantage: Islanders, Lightning, Maple Leafs
Home and road
The Islanders have the toughest go here. New York has just four more dates at Barclays Center and seven on the road. The Leafs and Lightning each have a 6-5 split in favour of home dates. And the Bruins (19-14-0 at TD Garden) have a distinct edge here, with eight of their final 10 games set in Boston.
Advantage: Bruins
Back-to-backs
New York, Toronto and Tampa each have three back-to-backs left to play in this truncated schedule. The Leafs’ final back-to-back is a beast: Pittsburgh-Columbus on April 8-9. Much will depend on where the Metro seeding sits at that point. If, say, the Penguins cannot improve their standing, stars like Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin might rest. Boston has an edge here with just two back-to-backs left.
Advantage: Bruins
Strength of opponent
Here’s where things get interesting. The Leafs (.539 opponents’ points percentage), Lightning (.500) and Islanders (.498) each play six more games against playoff teams or those in contention. We’ll hand a slight edge to the chasers — Tampa and New York — here. Boston (.544) faces a whopping eight opponents still battling for position, including the Capitals and Blackhawks in the final week of the season.
Advantage: Islanders, Lightning
Health
A big category, and a very real excuse Tampa can use if its last-ditch rally falls short. The Lightning not only depleted their lineup by trading away two centres (Brian Boyle and Valtteri Filppula) and an excellent goalie at the deadline, but now they have a list of regulars wounded, many with uncertain return dates: Tyler Johnson, Cedric Paquette, Ryan Callahan and Steven Stamkos.
The Islanders are staying competitive without top-four defenceman Johnny Boychuk and depth forwards Mikhail Grabovski and Shane Prince. (Don’t be shocked to see goaltender Jaroslav Halak called up from the AHL down the stretch.)
While the Maple Leafs and Bruins — knock wood, if you’re a fan of either — are more or less injury-free. Toronto has reserves ready and waiting at centre (Eric Fehr), wing (Josh Leivo) and defence (Alexey Marchenko) should a man go down.
Advantage: Bruins, Maple Leafs
Tie-breaker
If the Atlantic positional battle and/or the wild-card race comes down to a stat other than standings points — a very real possibility in this Golden Age of Parity — Boston has a good hold on the primary tie-breaker. The Bruins have 36 regulation or overtime wins (ROW), more than Ottawa (35), Toronto (32), New York (32) and Tampa (30).
Advantage: Bruins
What the nerds say
There are a few good websites out there that use nightly updated algorithms to determine every team’s shot of making the playoffs, winning the Presidents’ Trophy, etc.
Today, the number crunchers at SportsClubStats.com (my site of choice) have the Bruins’ chances at 84.4% despite the loss in Toronto.
The Maple Leafs’ odds flew up 10 per cent with one critical win and they now have a 73.5% chance of making the cut. The Islanders (24.1%) and Lightning (18.7%) took a step back but remain in the mix.
Advantage: Bruins, Maple Leafs
Conclusion
Despite having the toughest schedule and one less game to play, Boston has points in the bank and minimal travel. The Bruins are blessed with stretch-run experience, sturdy leadership, and an all-world goaltender. They should also have a chip on their shoulder, having failed to qualify the past two springs. They’ll get the Atlantic spot.
Give the second wild-card spot — albeit in a photo finish — to the Maple Leafs on account of their health and the locked-in play of Frederik Andersen. We loved what we saw out of this team in snatching three of a potential four points against Chicago and Boston in what, essentially, were both one-goal, high-intensity contests.
“When you come down the stretch and you’re playing these important games late in the season, you learn a lot,” Morgan Rielly said Monday night.
“This is where you learn how to win.”
