Last season before the puck dropped for the Winter Classic in Foxborough, Mass., we took a look at which team had the advantage in an outdoor format, where puck-carrying and passing are inhibited by the condition of the ice in an uncontrollable environment.
Anything can happen in a single game, but as it happened our method worked last year in predicting which team would be better suited for the outdoor game, with the Canadiens ending a losing streak to defeat the Bruins 5-1 in a dominant performance.
From the best rivalry in hockey, we move to rekindling one from the old WHA, as the Winnipeg Jets will play hosts to the Edmonton Oilers at Investors Group Field, the home of the CFL’s Winnipeg Blue Bombers.
Last year we were nearly midway through the season when we compared the Bruins and Habs, whereas we’re just over a week into the season for the Heritage Classic, so this season’s data doesn’t carry nearly as much weight. We do however, have data from last season, which we can add to the mix and figure out which team fits better on the outdoor rink.
Because the puck doesn’t move as nicely outdoors, passing and carrying the puck often gives way to dumping it in to open areas, creating puck battles for those loose pucks to transition and gain territory, so that’s where we’ll focus again.
What we can see in terms of dump ins and dump outs is that while the Oilers do succeed with those plays more often than the Jets do, that appears to be more about pure volume than making good plays, as the Jets have higher success rates, aside from dump ins in 2015-16.
Also worth considering is that while Edmonton successfully dumps the puck out of its own zone more often, they spend significantly more time there, being a 48.8 per cent Corsi team over this period, as compared to Winnipeg’s 51.3 per cent. What matters more than raw dumping plays, though, is what happens afterwards.
Last season the Jets were among the best fore-checking teams in the NHL, and they’ve started this season off even stronger, which could be a major determining factor in this game. The Oilers seem to be the better team at recovering pucks in their own end, although time spent in their own zone is a factor there. Even still, the Jets surely miss Jacob Trouba on the back end, and that’s where this game could be decided: the strong forechecking Jets against the Oilers’ possibly superior recoveries in the defensive zone.
One area we can’t ignore is the neutral zone, and there I would give the strong advantage to the Jets. The Oilers have been the slightly better team there so far this year, but the weight of a full season against a week of games is too strong for me to give the edge to the Oil.
Considering how often both teams will be dumping the puck out of their defensive zones to relieve pressure on that inferior ice, Winnipeg’s superiority there may just be the difference maker.
This game doesn’t have the large fore-checking mismatch that the Winter Classic game did last year, but I do think the Jets are built a bit better to cope with slower ice. It’s possible that Connor McDavid has one of those games where nothing can stop him – so that’s a wild card for sure — but the Jets should have a slight advantage heading into this one.
