By Jim Kelley, Sportsnet.ca
DETROIT – Really, can you see it ending anywhere but here in Detroit?
OK, maybe not tonight (though that’s more than likely), but even if the Pittsburgh Penguins survive to play another game in the 2008 Stanley Cup Final there is a creeping sense of inevitability about who the best team is now that the series has returned to Motown with the Detroit Red Wings holding a commanding 3-1 lead.
First off, the Wings expect Thomas Holmstrom (leg or shoulder injury depending on whom you talk to or believe) back for tonight’s game in the Joe Louis Arena and though the Wings won Game Three without him, having the burly beast (wasn’t that Todd Bertuzzi’s role last spring?) back and parked in front of Pittsburgh goalie Marc-Andre Fleury is just another foot in a ever unwinding string that has had the Penguins both tied up and at loose ends.
In compiling their now commanding lead, the Red Wings have looked remarkably solid in goal, almost unbeatable in their own end and while they certainly have had trouble scoring in any kind of numbers, they’ve gotten most of the timely goals when needed, have had more of the better chances (don’t you just love that coaching cliché) and, if this series were tracked in football coach speak, by far the better time of possession of the ball, er, puck.
The Penguins have had occasional moments of brilliance and flashes of big-game performance from Sidney Crosby. They’ve also had relatively long stretches of good to near-great play from goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury and some downright nasty physicality to their game, especially in their one win, a 3-2 triumph last Wednesday on home ice.
The problem for Pittsburgh however is in what they haven’t had.
They haven’t much of anything in the way of offence, certainly in terms of production, but more importantly in terms of creativity and ingenuity. They simply aren’t making things happen. Then aren’t even making the Red Wings confused or nervous.
They’ve also had next to nothing in regards to their once vaunted power play. And they’ve had a gradually disappearing cast of contributing characters starting with Hart Trophy finalist Evgeni Malkin, but extending through most of the forward ranks and, supposed defensive contributors like Sergei Gonchar and the recently reactivated Daryl Sydor.
And even as good and fun to watch as Sidney Crosby has been, well, put it this way, it’s not like he’s making people think he’s a Conn Smythe Trophy candidate even if the Pens were winning this thing.
Add that up and the Red Wings are winning because they’ve been the better team while the Pens, who were thought to be a bit better up front and at least equal in every phase except overall team defence and coaching, are not only being beaten, but they are being outplayed and in terms of edicts from the coaching podium and a few other areas, outclassed.
Start with the numbers, sure the games in Pittsburgh were close, but in terms of total production (usually a good indication of where things are headed), the Pens have been outscored, 11-4 and outshot 134-88. True shots don’t total up to scoring chances one-for-one, but come on, the Wings are going Big Brown on a team that’s shown more waddle than wham.
Nearly lapping the field is something the Wings have done well and will likely do even better here on home ice and with the last-change advantage. Besides, if you’re getting way more shots, it’s a pretty fair indication that you’re also getting way more in terms of puck possession.
And if you’ve got that going for you, chances are you’re also going to be playing with the lead a whole lot more.
Despite predictions of change, the team that has scored first has won all but one game in this series (Pittsburgh had Numero Uno in Game Four, but lost, 2-1, in part because of their failing power play and a five-on-three exercise in futility in the closing minutes of that game).
More importantly, the Wings have dominated in terms of time with the lead, racking up near 100 minutes (97 minutes, 38 seconds) while the Pens have been in front only 47:50. Having the lead or at least lead time seems to matter in this series because it dictates the way the games are played. When Detroit is in front, it tends to stay there by means of it’s masterful puck possession game. When the Pens are in control, they seem to be able to get the Wings back on their heels a bit as they play off the rush, constantly trying to add to their total.
What has to be worrisome to the Pens, however, is that in the first two games in the Joe they never had the lead. Worse, they never scored a goal. Tough to play from a position of prominence when you can’t get the puck, or get the puck to the net let alone get the puck past goalie Chris Osgood.
That, no doubt, weighs on the Penguins who have had a series or roles reversed on them in this series.
In the last two campaigns, against the New York Rangers and the Philadelphia Flyers they had the other team in this position (down 3-1) and won. They also swept the Ottawa Senators and they lost a game they felt was a must-win game Saturday night in Pittsburgh where they hadn’t lost previously in the playoffs.
That had even Crosby grasping for something to cling to going into this game.
“I think for us to switch roles, we were looking at that (close out) game as a must-win too,” he said after Monday’s morning skate. “The last thing we wanted to do was go back to the other team’s building.
“So being on the other side of it, I think that’s our motivation. It’s knowing they probably don’t want to come back to Pittsburgh. And they’re certainly going to be desperate. But so are we. So I think that’s probably the way we look at it.”
Probably? Good luck firing up the mates with that one.
Still, this is hockey and anything can and sometimes does happen. Fleury could rise to the occasion and steal a game. Malkin could awake from his coma. Heck, a couple of those bombs from the point might even grab the leash of a seeing-eye puck and find its way past Osgood. Might we dare suggest they could bounce off Petr Sykora’s backside since he can’t seem to find any other way to get one in?
That’s hockey, those things happen (though you can bet Wings coach Mike Babcock will have given his team a blueprint regards ways to avoid even things that are entirely out of their control).
Still, down 3-1 against a team that has been a winner before, is playing at home before a crowd that knows how to intimidate and the odds are in Detroit’s favor.
Stretch those out over three games and where you have home-ice advantage for two and, well, you get the picture and one senses the Penguins do as well.
Asked if he and his team, sensing the situation, had another gear left to go to, Crosby responded by saying: “I’m going to try. It’s pretty hard to say that before a game. But I’m definitely going to empty the tank. I’m not going to save anything. I think that’s going to be the case with all the guys.
“But we all need to step up and whoever it is, it doesn’t matter. I mean, we’ve got to find a way to raise our game and come out of here with a win.
The problem for Pittsburgh is that the Red Wings have already done that and seemingly every time out.
That’s why they are in the position of wrapping this thing up tonight.
