Breakout players come and go (just ask any journeyman who played wing for Mario Lemieux), but the true definition of a breakout player is simple: find your way to the NHL, learn how the game is played and then perform at a very high level and for years to come.
Tampa’s Steven Stamkos seems primed to become a posterboy for the definition above. He has pure talent and everyone knew it when the Lightning picked him first overall in the 2008 Entry Draft. He struggled a bit adjusting to the league and with the confusion brought about by a dysfunctional hockey department and a coach, Barry Melrose, who was woefully inadequate for the task at hand. Still, under Rick Tocchet and with the help of a few veteran players in the Bolts lineup, he broke through. He went from 23 goals and 46 points that first season to 51 goals and 95 points the second time around. He may have missed out on the Calder Trophy for rookie of the year (it went to goalie Steve Mason), but he picked up one heck of a “consolation” prize in that 51-goal season, forcing Pittsburgh superstar Sidney Crosby to up his output on the last day of the regular season to force a tie for the Maurice “The Rocket” Richard Trophy awarded annually to the league’s No.1 goal scorer.
Not bad company for a second year man.
Is there another player capable of making the “Stamkos Leap” in 2010-11? Probably not. But there are breakout candidates to be found.
1: Erik Johnson, D, St. Louis Blues:
Johnson was the No. 1 pick in 2006 and had a stunning career in junior hockey capped with an exceptional performance at the World Junior Hockey Championships, but a serious knee injury derailed his NHL career before it got started. The 6’4, 219-pound defenceman is back now and seemingly ready to breakthrough to the NHL glory that was forecast for him. He had 33 and 39 points respectively in his first two years with the Blues, but the team is more stable now and Johnson is more experienced and scouts feel that 39-point season is just the starting point for a career that has all-star potential and shows true leadership ability.
2: Max Talbot, C, Pittsburgh Penguins:
Talbot is truly overshadowed with a centre ice group in front of him that includes Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal, but he’s in the last year of his contract and headed for unrestricted free agency. If Malkin moves to Crosby’s wing to give Crosby a finisher for his passes, Talbot should benefit immensely. He was a disappointment last season (seven goals), but he showed what he’s got in the 2009 playoffs when he scored 13 points en route to the Pens winning the Stanley Cup.
3: Logan Couture, C, San Jose Sharks:
The Sharks let Manny Malhotra leave as a free agent in order to give this former first-round pick (ninth in 2007) room to grow. Couture had five goals and nine points in 25 games last season with limited ice time, but scored well in the playoffs (four goals). Couture was a scorer in juniors and in the AHL and he’ll get the ice time to make it happen at this level.
4: Jonathan Bernier, G, Los Angeles Kings:
Bernier wasn’t ready at 19 when the Kings made him their first pick in the 2006 draft, but he was 3-0-0 in a late season call-up roll last season (1.30 goals-against average). He’s now 22 and expected to challenge and perhaps overtake Jonathan Quick, who had a big year last year (39 wins) but struggled down the stretch and in a first-round playoff loss to the Canucks. It’s a goalie battle in L.A. and Bernier is ready to make the job his own.
5: Nick Foligno, C, Ottawa Senators:
The son of Mike Foligno, a former first-round pick, has had some success with the Sens, but he struggled after coming back from a broken leg last season. He’s stronger now, more experienced and his feisty style of play is going to make room for him and his linemates around the opponent’s net. Look for him to grab a 25-goal season this time around.
Other possibilities:
Peter Mueller, F, Colorado Avalanche:
Mueller seemed lost in his first few years with Phoenix, but he found his game in Colorado and if his concussion problems are behind him he should have a breakthrough season.
Colin Wilson, F, Nashville Predators:
The Predators let Jason Arnott move on to make room for Wilson, the No. 7 pick in the 208 draft and if he gets back to his NCAA scoring ability, he’ll reward their faith.
James Van Riemsdyk and/ or Ville Leino, Philadelphia:
Van Riemsdyk struggles for ice time in a front-loaded lineup, but he showed ability in the playoff run last spring and he’ll get more time because of it. Leino had 21 points in the playoffs, a clear indication he’s ready for a breakthrough season.
Kyle Okposo, F, New York Islanders:
A solid offensive talent, he suffered a major injury in camp this week, but he should recover in time to have an impact second half.
Niclas Bergfors, F, Atlanta:
He came over at the deadline from New Jersey in the Ilya Kovalchuk deal and he didn’t disappoint; look for him to score 25 or more with the Thrashers.
Niklas Hjalmarsson, D, Chicago:
The Blackhawks matched a restricted free-agent offer for this kid, a decision that likely cost them the ability to pay goalie Antti Neimi. It won’t be money misspent; he’s going to be worth the $14 million over four years and then some.
