SAN JOSE — The nerds over at Sportsclubstats.com have done the playoff math. And God bless them for that.
Now, if only they had a medical branch that could tell us what percentage of what Joe Thornton said on Wednesday was actually true, and at what percentile will Logan Couture be performing when he makes his return wearing some kind of facemask.
Thornton was asked Wednesday if he would be in the Sharks lineup for Game 1 of the playoffs, likely set for next Wednesday or Thursday.
“I am, for sure,” he promised. “Oh, there’s no doubt. No doubt.
“I think the training staff pretty much just said put a band aid on it and get out there and play.”
Yep. And they may have added, “Don’t forget to tape an Advil to it Jumbo!” Because that’s how certified athletic trainers roll these days.
Thornton’s left knee buckled Friday night in Calgary, and it looked like it could be serious. But the Sharks centreman skated Wednesday, albeit gingerly and only for a few minutes, and talked like a guy who might get in Game 82 this weekend, though we would bet against that.
But back to the numbers, where Sportsclubstats tells us between the Edmonton Oilers and San Jose Sharks – opponents Thursday in San Jose – there is an 84 per cent probability that one of them finishes second in the Pacific Division. And a 98 per cent chance that the other one takes third place.
[snippet id=3317575]
So, it is 91 per cent certain that:
A — The Anaheim Ducks will finish first in the Pacific, though Edmonton still has a 16 per cent chance, and the Sharks 3 per cent.
B — Thursday’s Oilers-Sharks game will go a long way in deciding who gets home ice advantage in the second ever playoff meeting between these two clubs (Edmonton came back from down 2-0 to win Round 2 in 2006).
But here is the Sharks’ problem. Thornton, the team’s premier distributor of the puck, not play Thursday. Neither will Logan Couture, the Sharks’ primary driver who swallowed a deflected puck on March 25 and is believed to have suffered lost teeth, possible facial or jaw fractures, and a concussion.
He skated for a few minutes prior to Wednesday’s team practice and plans to take the morning skate Thursday. “Is there a chance you could go tomorrow night?” he was asked.
“I’m gonna say no,” said Couture, who has breathing issues from the protective guards on his upper and lower jaw, and vision issues with the facial protection fitted to his helmet. “It’s all about breathing, comfort and protection. I won’t really know (about a playing status) until there is some contact.”
[relatedlinks]
So, let’s take stock:
We have a huge game in the final week of the NHL, with home-ice advantage on the line. But the problem is, two of San Jose’s best players won’t be playing, and really, home-ice advantage isn’t worth what it used to be anyhow.
Last spring, road teams went 14-12 in the first week of the playoffs. By the end of the first round, road teams were 25-22.
The Sharks knocked Los Angeles out in Round 1, winning three games at the Staples Center. So you can imagine San Jose would be fairly laissez-faire about opening a series on the road against an Oilers club that hasn’t even played a playoff game in a decade.
But here’s the other part: Who knows when or if Thornton’s left knee will get to 100 per cent this spring? If Thornton slows down a half-stride, how’s that going to work against the speedy Oilers?
And what about Couture, a player who is effective because he goes habitually into traffic, and plays — as his old coach Todd McLellan still admires — with his nose over the puck? Will he still play that way, nursing the kind of injuries he has?
If Couture avoids traffic, and Thornton can’t get there, can the Sportsclubstats folks tell us what that means for a playoff series?
I guess we’ll have to get off the web, and watch the games.
A novel concept, I know.
