When looking for defencemen who probably won’t replicate production over the unofficial second half of the season, there are specific indicators to look for. Among those indicators are shooting percentages, both personal and on-ice. Here’s the difference between the two:
• Personal shooting percentage – An individual shooting percentage, based off a player’s own shots on goal and goal totals. It is usually inclusive of all strengths, not just five-on-five.
• On-ice shooting percentage – The rate at which a team scores with a given player on the ice. They are typically lower than personal shooting percentages – whole lines don’t shoot at 15 to 20 percent – and is usually expressed at five-on-five (though not always).
If either of those percentages are too high, it’s a good indication that some kind of slowdown is coming. Here are some defencemen that can be expected to have a less productive second half of the season than the first half.
Cody Franson (Toronto)
Franson is doing well this year with 13 power play points, but it will be five-on-five rather than with the man advantage where the pullback will likely come. So far this year, Franson is on pace (11.53 percent) to shatter his previous career high in on-ice shooting percentage for an 82-game season (8.54 percent). He should be expected to produce about 17 or 18 points for the rest of the season, not 23 or 24.
Franson, though, does have two good matchups this week with Toronto facing Carolina and Ottawa. He’s still relatively cheap on Sportsnet’s Fantasy Hockey Pool, costing just two of a possible four points. It’s a good week to get him in lineups.
Tyson Barrie (Colorado)
Anyone who drafted Tyson Barrie this year cannot be too disappointed with the return. The peripheral stats like shots on goal and penalty minutes aren’t there, but the point production has been excellent. Considering Colorado has gone from division leader to non-playoff team, that’s about as much as can be expected.
There’s nothing overt about Barrie’s production this year that screams major regression. His personal shooting percentage dropped from last year (as expected), but his on-ice shooting percentage isn’t far off from what he did last year. It’s the fact that he has a point on 46.2 percent of Colorado’s goals at five-on-five that is concerning.
That’s a high number for a defenceman. For reference, only six defencemen had a higher mark last year, and there are names like Victor Hedman, Erik Karlsson, Dustin Byfuglien, and Mike Green in there. Barrie’s production will tail off in the second half, and with ongoing plus/minus concerns considering his team, his trade value probably won’t get much better than it is right now.
Sami Vatanen (Anaheim)
It’s not impossible for a defenceman to shoot over 10 percent by himself over the course of a season. Nine defencemen have done it in the last two 82-game seasons. However, it’s not that common, so when a defenceman is doing it, it’s important to know why.
Vatanen is shooting 19.4 percent at five-on-four this year, good for seventh among all NHL defencemen. Last year, only three defencemen with at least two power play goals shot at that rate or higher, and one of them was Zdeno Chara who was a net-front presence on the Boston power play.
Vatanen is on pace to push for 20 goals this year, and I have serious doubts he gets there. The percentages are just too high for a young player without much of a track record. He’s nearly a top-10 defenceman on the season, so his value won’t get higher than it is right now.
John Klingberg (Dallas)
Klingberg is one I’m a bit less confident in, just because he didn’t start the season with the team, and it’s entirely possible he plays 65 or 70 games without a huge regression. All the same, he is a rookie who is in the top-20 of on-ice shooting percentage among defencemen. It’s hard for any rookie defenceman to crack 40 points, and Klingberg will push that at his current rate, having missed 14 games.
Kevin Klein (NY Rangers)
This one is kind of obvious, and would only affect those in deeper leagues. With that said, Kevin Klein’s production is about to fall off of a cliff.
Klein is a 30-year-old defenceman whose previous career high in points is 21. In 42 games this year, he sits at 17, almost half in goals (8). He also leads NHL defencemen in shooting percentage (over 15 percent, actually). If he can be traded for anything that can help a fantasy team, that should be done immediately. Otherwise, he’s outright droppable in formats that don’t count hits and blocked shots.
*Some stats courtesy of Hockey Analysis, Hockey Reference, Behind The Net, War On Ice, and NHL.com
