NHL Power Rankings: Small Sample Size Edition

The HC at Noon crew discusses the Maple Leafs season so far after 3 games, saying it's pretty much going to plan, except for in the nets.

The Montreal Canadiens will squeak past the San Jose Sharks and win the Stanley Cup.

Erik Karlsson and Henrik Zetterberg will duke it out for the scoring crown. Alex Ovechkin will sleep in and get benched 41 times this season. And young, twice-traded Martin Jones will claim the Vezina Trophy.

Yes, we’re one week into the 2015-16 NHL season. The Coyotes are awesome, the Ducks stink, and we’re projecting an entire campaign based on the results of just a few games.

It’s our first NHL Power Rankings: Small Sample Size Edition, where first impressions are everything.

Rank Team Previous
1

Peter DeBoer is having a better start to the season than Todd McLellan, isn’t he? The Sharks are 3-0 under their new coach, and starter Martin Jones (looks good, eh, L.A. and Boston?) has two consecutive shutouts.
Small sample size stat: Jones scheduled to ride a 0.33 GAA and .987 save percentage all the way to a Vezina.

14
2

Love this stat: The Habs have opened with four straight W’s. The only other three times they did so — 1955-56, 1970-71 and 1977-78 — they went on to win the Cup.
Small sample size stat: Montreal goes 82-0-0

13
3

The kids — Tobias Rieder, Max Domi, Anthony Duclair — look great early. Could Arizona be the surprise team of the season?
Small sample size stat: Mike Smith on pace to redeem his nightmare 2014-15 with a sparkling 0.67 GAA and .981 save percentage.

30
4

Jeff Blashill hasn’t lost yet, and the Red Wings destroyed Mike Babcock’s homecoming, propelled by a Justin Abdelkader hat trick.
Small sample size stat: Abdelkader is on target for 109 goals — a career high.

18
5

The undefeated Preds are 3-0-0 for just the third time in franchise history, getting stellar contributions from their deep blue line and elite goaltender.
Small sample size stat: Pekka Rinne on pace to never give up a goal to Connor McDavid.

9
6

Not only is Minnesota perfect, but the Wild’s best player (see: Parise, Zach) is playing like it, and their two wins have come against divisional foes.
Small sample size stat: Ryan Suter is on pace to skate more than 2,000 minutes this season.

15
7

They said they’d prove people wrong, and so far we have egg on our faces. The 3-0-1 Canucks got points from 16 different players in Week One.
Small sample size stat: Vancouver on pace to cruise into the playoffs easily.

19
8

Those of us who thought the Jets would take a step backward this season (raises hand sheepishly) eat crow as Winnipeg storms out to a 3-1-0 record.
Small sample size stat: Winnipeg is on pace for a franchise-record 61 wins.

21
9

Early signs show no slow-up for the Lightning. Jonathan Drouin is getting more ice time, which is fun to see, and Erik Condra (the most significant off-season addition here) has fit in well so far.
Small sample size stat: Steven Stamkos is on pace to finish eighth in team scoring.

2
10

Rangers rookie Oscar Lindberg has four goals through four games, and winger Viktor Stalberg has surprisingly been an immediate contributor.
Small sample size stat: Henrik Lundqvist on pace to make a jaw-dropping save 82 nights this winter.

4
11

Despite an early injury to their 2015 saviour, Andrew Hammond, Ottawa has impressed with a perfect 3-0 record on the road.
Small sample size stat: If he keeps it up, Erik Karlsson (seven points, tied with Henrik Zetterberg for tops) has a shot to become the only defenceman not named Bobby Orr to win the Art Ross.

17
12

Unlike last year, the Stars are off to a strong start, Antti Niemi has fit in well, and Jason Spezza already has a hat trick.
Small sample size stat: Dallas has solved all of its goaltending issues.

11
13

Former Capital Troy Brouwer has fit in seamlessly (three points in three games), and the Blues again look like a regular-season force.
Small sample size stat: Walk-on Scottie Upshall leads all Blues skaters with six shots per game.

5
14

Jaromir Jagr and the kids have leaped to a fantastic start, and the Panthers are finally scoring goals (11 in three games). Best goal differential in the East.
Small sample size stat: Brandon Pirri on pace to finish season with 41 times more assists than he had in 2014-15 (two).

22
15

With the nice play of Michal Neuvirth, middle-of-the-pack Philly has some questions in goal… again. Classy retirement ceremony for longtime Flyer Kimmo Timonen on Wednesday night.
Small sample size stat: Brayden “Trade Rumours” Schenn is on pace to lead the club in scoring, while newly-wealthy Jakub Voracek is set to go goal-free all season at this rate.

23
16

After the most turbulent of summers, the champs are playing .500 ball. Their best player is their most controversial — Patrick Kane has six points already.
Small sample size stat: Rookie Artemi Panarin will register 82 points at his current pace.

6
17

Washington has rules, and will enforce them, even if that means the team’s best player sitting out for a 5-0 shutout to San Jose because he overslept.
Small sample size stat: Alex Ovechkin is on pace to score 82 points and get benched for 41 games.

3
18

“We’ve got so many high-flying forwards, we can get rid of Michael Grabner for scraps and send Josh Ho-Sang home before camp even starts.” – Garth Snow, dropping the mic.
Small sample size stat: The trigger-happy Islanders are projecting a league-high 36.3 shots per game.

16
19

Colorado’s big weapons — Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, Erik Johnson — all appear ready to redeem last season’s disappointment.
Small sample size stat: Defenceman Francois Beauchemin is on target for a Norris-winning 137-point effort with his new club.

25
20

Here’s a fun stat: No NHLer has more points (regular season and playoffs included) since March 1 than the Flames’ Jiri Hudler.
Small sample size stat: The Flames are on pace to juggle three goalies, none of whom can save 90 per cent of the shots they face.

12
21

A sick new goal song (DJ Kool’s “Let Me Clear My Throat”) almost makes up for the Sabres’ bad news: Their brand-new starting goaltender, Robin Lehner, is out 6-10 weeks.
Small sample size stat: Super-rookie Jack Eichel is projecting a nifty 55 goals this season.

24
22

An injury-riddled defence and their worst three-game start in decades had the Bruins already (reportedly) thinking trade. But Wednesday’s win staunched the bleeding.
Small sample size stat: Boston is on pace to surrender a super-ugly 369 goals this season.

20
23

The roster is too soft to contend, but the effort, for the most part, has been refreshingly strong. The Leafs are out-shooting opponents by 5.3 shots per game.
Small sample size stat: Jonathan Bernier will allow a goal on the first shot he faces in 54 starts this season.

27
24

The Kessel-Crosby combo that looked so juicy in the first preseason game hasn’t quite caught on, and the Penguins’ blue line is proving below average.
Small sample size stat: Sidney Crosby is pointless.

10
25

Hardly a red carpet for Connor McDavid’s welcome to the league, as the Oilers struggle on a nasty Central Division road trip versus St. Louis, Nashville and Dallas.
Small sample size stat: Since Wayne Gretzky also scored his first NHL goal in Game 3, McDavid is on right pace for 894 career goals.

26
26

The Hurricanes, one of several teams still looking for that first W, have been outscored 10-5 and lost new defenceman James Wisneiwski to a major knee injury.
Small sample size stat: Eddie Lack never wins in Carolina.

28
27

Anemic offensively, New Jersey has mustered just five goals through three contests and has the early look of a lottery team.
Small sample size stat: Cory Schneider’s wife is on pace to give birth to 27 babies this season.

29
28

The consensus Stanley Cup favourite has lame-ducked its way out the gate. In three outings, Anaheim has scored a combined one goal. Yikes.
Small sample size stat: Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf are projecting a combined zero points in 2015-16.

1
29

Notoriously slow to gel, the winless Kings are doing themselves no favours after last spring’s disappointment. How long until the Darryl Sutter hotseat rumours start?
Small sample size stat: L.A. figures to post an NHL-worst minus-273 goal differential.

7
30

The preseason darling Blue Jackets have turned in some disappointing efforts and stud goalie Sergei Bobrovsky has looked shaky in their 0-4 nightmare.
Small sample size stat: GM Jarmo Kekäläinen is on pace to publicly call out his team 20.5 times this season.

8

(stats via NHL.com, SN Stats and counting things on fingers)

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