The 2015 NHL free agent class isn’t exactly littered with big names, but that doesn’t mean teams won’t dish out big money on July 1.
So who’s going to get paid? Which teams are going to put out the dough? Who’s the biggest risk?
With the start of free agency just hours away, a panel of NHL writers at Sportsnet provided their predictions.
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The panel includes NHL senior producer Rory Boylen, NHL senior producer Mike Cormack, NHL staff writer Scott Lewis, NHL staff writer Mike Johnston, NHL staff writer Jeff Simmons, and Sportsnet Magazine deputy editor Jordan Heath-Rawlings and NHL senior columnist Mark Spector.
1) Which free agent will get the biggest contract?
Boylen: Mike Green (D) At 29 years old, Green is the youngest of the best UFAs so it’s not as risky to sink term into him as it would be for older players. For all the talk about his defensive deficiencies, Green can still produce offence with the best of them. He’d be a good add to the power play and could attract a bidding war.
Heath-Rawlings: Mike Green (D) He may not be the all-star calibre player we once thought he was. But he is a defenceman. A right-shooting defenseman. A right-shooting defenceman who can skate and is under 30 with a very solid resume. In this market, that’s enough to make the dollar-signs dance.
Lewis: Mike Green (D) There’s a good chance whoever signs him pays for past performance. Ideally, he would slot in on a second pairing and run the power play, but if he commands upwards of $7 million then the expectations may exceed his abilities.
Johnston: Matt Beleskey (F) The soon-to-be former Anaheim Duck is coming off a career year where he scored 22 goals in 65 games. At age 27 he’s just entering the prime of his career and should be a perennial 20-goal scorer for at least the next several seasons. He’s also a big body that doesn’t shy away from physical play. If Drew Stafford is getting paid $4.35 million per season, then Beleskey should get north of $5 million and probably on a long-term deal.
Simmons: Matt Beleskey (F) It’s basic supply and demand. Beleskey is the best player in an otherwise-underwhelming market and he produced big in his contract year. Based on what some forwards (Carl Soderberg for example) already got, this guy will have a Brinks truck sitting in his driveway by Wednesday afternoon.
Spector: Mike Green (D) A combination of his age (he turns 30 on Oct. 12) and the importance of his position will cause some GM to over-extend himself on Green. A power-play quarterback, puck-moving defenceman has become the heart and soul of every good team in 2015. Think of the Cup teams of recent years, then think of Duncan Keith, Drew Doughty, Victor Hedman, Dan Boyle, etc. We’re not saying Green is Doughty or Keith, but he has offensive skills that are so much higher than what most lineups have, and he’ll get paid handsomely.
Cormack: Matt Beleskey (F) It’s not too hard to imagine a GM salivating over the prospect of locking up a physical, 27-year-old forward with 30-goal potential with a six (dare we say, seven!) year deal. The David Clarkson comparisons are obvious, but as we all know, some GMs show as much restraint on July 1 as university freshman with their credit cards.
2) Which free agent would you be wary of signing?
Boylen: Matt Beleskey (F) Suspiciously high shooting percentage in a career year. Seems like he might get lots of attention, which would drive the price up. This has potential disaster written all over it.
Heath-Rawlings: Most of them There are honestly too many to list here. Really. This free-agent class could very well look like a disaster come January. It’s the perfect storm of cap space, perceived needs, mediocre players and impatient fans. A handful list of players who will be overpaid and almost assuredly underproduce: Michael Frolik, Joel Ward, Francois Beauchemin, Paul Martin and Matt Beleskey.
Johnston: Martin St. Louis (F) This isn’t to say the veteran isn’t a good player or can’t still be a top-six forward on certain teams, but his production has declined over the past two seasons and he recently turned 40 –- he’s coming off his lowest point total since 2002. St. Louis isn’t the same player that registered 60 points in 48 games during the lockout-shortened 2012-13 campaign and if a team pays like that, they will regret it.
Lewis: Chris Stewart (F) Stewart is a long, long way away from that 28-goal campaign in 2009-10. The big winger looked disinterested in his run with the Buffalo Sabres, and he didn’t exactly set the world on fire in 20 games with the Minnesota Wild. He’s not the power forward you’re looking for.
Simmons: Matt Beleskey (F) Sticking with Beleskey here. He seems like the classic free agent mistake. Nice depth player that gets overpaid based on his success on a very quality Ducks’ team and isn’t the same calibre player on a lesser roster. I would be very hesistant.
Spector: Johnny Oduya (D) He’s a tough-as-nails defenceman and still has some game, but Oduya was perfectly cast as a No. 4 behind Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook and Niklas Hjalmarsson. Someone is going to pay him like a No. 2 defenceman, they’ll play him more and in tougher situations, and they will be disappointed. Oduya is almost 34 — too old to upgrade his game to match a big UFA deal.
Cormack: Martin St. Louis (F) At 40, the former Art Ross Trophy winner can still be a top-end forward on a competitive team, but the fact he registered his lowest point total since 2002 last season is a red flag, or at the very least a loud yellow. He’ll still command a high AAV, so term is the greater concern here. Anything more than a year is too much to guarantee a man with that much grey in his beard.
3) Which team could make a free agent splash?
Boylen: Nashville Predators The Preds have almost $7 million to get to the floor and are coming off a strong season they’ll want to build upon. They won’t be a salary cap team, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them make a splash or two.
Heath-Rawlings: Nashville Predators The Predators may not be a spend-to-the-cap team, but they have to at least hit the floor. They’re $7.71 million away from that at the momentum, and they only have seven forwards under contract. That means they’ll have to hunt for offence in this market and, well, that’s a tough hunt. They might decide to take a bunch of low-priced fliers and hope a few guys can stick on short-term deals — a la the Leafs with David Booth, Mike Santorelli and Daniel Winnik.
Johnston: Edmonton Oilers With the McDavid era now in full swing, GM Peter Chiarelli should be a busy man on and after July 1. The Oilers need help pretty much everywhere. Their blueline could use someone that adds offence from the back end and can run a power-play more effectively than Justin Schultz. They also need to ensure their depth forwards can eat up minutes, wear down opposing teams and take pressure off Edmonton’s young, skilled core players.
Lewis: San Jose Sharks The San Jose Sharks are swimming in cap space and boast a great mix of veterans and youth. Whether it’s via free agency or trade, I’d bet on Doug Wilson adding a top-4 defenceman and some depth up front.
Simmons: Boston Bruins As you can tell, new Bruins GM Don Sweeney likes to make deals. He’s cleared out a bunch of salary cap space in trades for veteran players and will likely look to continue to reshuffle the roster on Wednesday. He’s been fun to watch thus far.
Spector: New York Rangers The Rangers are close, and the time is now. They’ve got more than $12 million in cap space, and other than Derek Stepan, most of their work is done with their current players. Martin St. Louis’s departure clears more than $5 — now GM Glen Sather just needs to find someone worthy to spend it on, in a thin UFA class.
Cormack: San Jose Sharks GM Doug Wilson has had a busy week. Last Saturday he dealt the rights to goaltender Antti Niemi to the Stars and on Tuesday he acquired goaltender Martin Jones from the Bruins. We also know they were close to acquiring defenceman Kevin Bieksa from the Vancouver Canucks last week before the deal fell apart, so they’re looking for help on the blueline too. With close to $17 million of cap space and a roster that screams ‘win-now-or-else,’ expect the Sharks to make more headlines in the days to come.
