When filling out Stanley Cup Playoffs brackets this post-season, the most lopsided series appeared to be Nashville-Colorado. Unless you’re an Avs fan or are related to someone in the organization, chances are you went with the Predators in this one.
By most measures the Predators were the far superior team, starting with the fact they have arguably the deepest roster in the league and won the Presidents’ Trophy.
But through three games we have a series, with the Predators leading 2-1 and the home team winning every game so far. Game 4 will of course be in Colorado as well, which is an advantage for line matching and because the Avs’ 28 wins at Pepsi Centre this season were the third-most in the Western Conference.
“Our guys feed off it, there’s no question,” Avalanche coach Jared Bednar said after Game 3’s decisive 5-3 win. “I think you know the home team, when you’re playing in front of a packed, loud building, the home team is going to come out and have a good start. But how long can you sustain that start? Is it five minutes, is it 10, is it 20?”
To be fair, the Avalanche have had the better start in all three games so far, coming out of the first period with a shutout lead intact and more shots on goal than their competitors each time.
Colorado just hasn’t given the Predators any chance to gain an edge early in games. While special teams have been decidedly in Nashville’s favour through three games, the Avs haven’t yet given them a full two-minute power play in the first period.
| TEAMS | PP TIME | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|
| NASHVILLE | 14:24 | 30 | 92.3 |
| COLORADO | 22:11 | 7.7 | 70 |
“We have to be smart,” Bednar said. “In my opinion we’ve been the better team 5-on-5. I think that we have to make sure we play that way as much as possible and stay out of all that ticky-tack stuff after the whistle. It doesn’t do us any good.
“But I like our pushback. We want to make sure we’re competing and not getting pushed around when the puck’s on the ice. But after the whistle blows I don’t know that much of that stuff does us any good.”
If you were looking for a reason to pick Colorado in this series, you focused in on special teams as an area where the Avs could make up some ground. The Predators were the most penalized team in the NHL this season and Colorado’s power play was eighth-best league-wide. You probably wouldn’t have pointed to even-strength hockey as a place where the Avs would control the series, as they ranked 22nd in 5-on-5 goals in the regular season. Nashville was eighth with 168 goals at 5-on-5.
But, for now at least, Bednar is right in that even-strength play has been one of the few things his team is doing better than Nashville.
This series will always be an uphill battle for the Avalanche, especially so since they’re clawing back from a two-game deficit. As we’ve seen in this series, no lead is safe in front of Nashville, the team with the NHL’s second-best winning percentage when trailing after one period this season.
But since Colorado is playing a team that isn’t shy about going to the box, it’s key for them to stay out of the extracurriculars.
“We felt like in the second period it was a little too much after the whistle, things like that, and we ended up in the penalty box a little too much whether it was 4-on 4-or whatnot,” captain Gabriel Landeskog said after Game 3. “Some of their guys, that’s the way they want to play — they want to play after whistles not in between and we’re kinda the opposite. So we’re going to try to stay outta that.”
The Avalanche have a narrow 7-6 goal advantage on the Predators at 5-on-5 and only three teams, Boston, Pittsburgh and San Jose, have more 5-on-5 playoff goals than the Avalanche to this point — and each of them are favoured to win their series.
As the heavy underdogs in theirs, though, it’s imperative for the Avs to continue getting these strong starts and to stay out of the penalty box to maintain one of the slim advantages they’ve had on the superior Predators through three games.
[relatedlinks]
