Boston Bruins. Arizona Coyotes. Colorado Avalanche.
Okay, how do you feel about the re-organized NHL draft lottery now?
If that turns out to be the final order delivered by tonight’s lottery – Bruins, then Desert Dogs, then Avs – it will surely have a far different impact on the hockey world than if, say, it turns out to be Leafs, Flames and Jets.
Or – gasp – Oilers, followed by Canadiens and Sabres.
We’ve grown so accustomed over the past five decades of the weakest teams getting the highest picks in the NHL draft that a result in today’s draft lottery that delivers the first overall pick to the 16th best team in the regular season – in this case, the Bruins – would be a stunning outcome.
The odds are against it, but it could happen, with teams like the 24th place Coyotes and the 21st overall Avalanche filling out the top three. If you’re one of those who have been playing with the NHL lottery simulator in recent weeks, and it’s been apparently used close to five million times, you already know that just running it 10 times can give you some really curious results.
But only one result counts. Tonight’s.
It’s the first year that anything other than just the top pick has been subject to the lottery, part of the reason this will be one of the most anticipated events of the hockey season.
Think back to last year. Edmonton won the lottery and the right to draft Connor McDavid. Buffalo, which had finished last, still got the No. 2 pick and a terrific talent in Jack Eichel. Compare that to this year’s Toronto Maple Leafs, who finished dead last in the NHL, partly by circumstance and partly, let’s face it, by intention.
The Leafs could lose the lottery and the right to draft Auston Matthews – there’s an 80 per cent chance of that happening – but they could also fall all the way to No. 4. This year, there will be talented players available at that draft position like (probably) Matthew Tkachuk, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Olli Juolevi and Alexander Nylander, but the decision will be complicated by the large number of possible choices.
If that happens, Leaf scouts suddenly become the most important people in the organization. They have to sift through that crowd and get the right guy. We do know that the concept of “tanking” to get top picks has come under greater scrutiny of late, and this revised draft scheme is a response to that.
But the question that hasn’t yet been answered is whether hockey observers will be satisfied with a draft system if it denies weak teams access to top players and awards clubs that barely miss the post-season with one of the top three selections? The entire concept of the draft in professional sports has always been that it allows lousy teams to potentially become good teams, or even great teams.
This draft lottery system could strike right at the heart of that philosophy.
So we’ll have to let this play out, get a feel for it.
To be sure, it looms as an enormous day for Canada’s seven NHL teams. Not necessarily a make-or-break day, because the worst Canadian teams this season – the Leafs, the Jets, the Flames, the Canucks and the Oilers – will end up with top 10 picks no matter what happens.
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It’s a strong draft, most scouts believe, and when you have a player like Sarnia defenceman Jakob Chychrun, who last fall was expected to be the No. 2 pick in the draft, now likely to be selected in the Nos. 8-12 range, it’s an indication this is a talented group of teenagers.
As well, draft history shows that somebody will likely make a mistake in the top five picks, creating an opportunity for those lower in the order to get a better player than they might have otherwise anticipated.
At the same time, it certainly feels like other than Edmonton, most of the Canadian teams have been in the unenviable position over the past decade of watching outstanding prospects, particularly Canadian-born ones, go to U.S. markets.
Sidney Crosby went to Pittsburgh, John Tavares to the Islanders, Steven Stamkos to Tampa and Nathan MacKinnon to Colorado.
Unfortunately, in that regard, this is likely not going to be a big year for Canadians going in the top 10, although that could change. Cape Breton’s Dubois caught Tkachuk for NHL Central Scouting’s top ranking among North American prospects this month, and Tyson Jost of the BCHL Penticton Vees wowed the scouts at the world under-18s in Grand Forks, North Dakota earlier this month.
Chychrun, meanwhile, is from Boca Raton, Fla., but plays in the Hockey Canada system. So it depends how you look at him.
But there is no Crosby, Tavares, Stamkos or MacKinnon for Canadian teams. They’ll likely tell you they don’t care. They all have needs at all positions, and if the best player available is Finnish, American, Russian or whatever, they won’t care.
This season was rock bottom for Canada’s NHL teams, with none making the playoffs, and it could be we’ll look back to this year’s draft, and this year’s draft lottery, as the starting point for a rebirth in truly viable Stanley Cup dreams north of the border.
From where I sit, wouldn’t it be great to see Canadian teams get, let’s say, the first five picks.
Canadian NHL teams, it must be said, have to look at many factors in their collective demise, from ownership to management to coaching to player development. What we know is the common denominator is that none of the seven were talented enough and deep enough to offset whatever other problems they had and make post-season play.
So they all need talent. In the salary cap NHL, with few elite free agents available every summer and trades very difficult to make, the draft is more important now than ever.
Today’s draft lottery, then, is the first step for all seven Canadian teams in learning whether their next saviour is waiting in the wings.
