Glance at the NHL standings and you’ll see the Ottawa Senators are about where they were expected to be at the quarter point of the season: close to last place, with 17 points in their first 20 games.
And yet, the mood around this team and the sense in the community is that Ottawa is punching above its weight and very competitive in most games. Improvement since the start of the season is reflected in the recent run — four wins in the Senators’ past six starts, and winners of six of the past 10.
In goal differential, the Senators are not horrible at minus-11, compared to Detroit’s minus-31 (heading into Monday’s game against the Red Wings) and minus-19 for the Los Angeles Kings and New Jersey Devils.
This is a vast improvement over an Ottawa team that was minus-60 (242 goals for and 302 against) in 2018-19. From 3.68 goals-against per game, Ottawa has reduced the number to 3.3.
Among the Senators’ eight victories in an 8-11-0-1 start to the season are triumphs over the Tampa Bay Lightning, San Jose Sharks, Philadelphia Flyers and Carolina Hurricanes.
More important than their numbers, the Senators are playing hard for new head coach D.J. Smith, subscribing to his philosophy that the 20 hardest workers will be rewarded with playing time.
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MOST IMPORTANT DEVELOPMENT
Smith said he wanted to change the culture in Ottawa, and there are clear signs of an identity emerging. The Senators get after it. They are physical — with 28 hits per game, Ottawa is second in the NHL to Pittsburgh’s 28.9. They pursue the puck and they never quit in games regardless of disparity on the scoreboard or shot clock. The plan from general manager Pierre Dorion and Smith was to instil this culture during the rebuilding phase and have it established by the time the team is more competitive a couple of years down the road. So far, so good.
MOST WORRISOME DEVELOPMENT
Home attendance. With an average gate of 11,168 off 10 home dates, the Senators are dead last in attracting a crowd. Canadian Tire Centre capacity is 18,652, meaning the building is less than 60-per cent full. Even the New York Islanders, habitually facing attendance issues, are at 74.7-per cent capacity while averaging 11,805 per game. Florida and New Jersey are out-drawing Ottawa by about 3,000 per game. Fans are angry with ownership and Ottawa faces challenges as a government-based economy with a smaller corporate entity than other NHL franchises in Canada. The hope is that an entertaining, energetic team can help turn this around.
TOP SIX FORWARDS GRADE: B-
Considering the injuries at the centre position that sidelined Colin White and Logan Brown for a period of time, the Senators have held their own despite a talent deficiency against most of their opponents. White is being eased back in a third-line role while Jean-Gabriel Pageau has filled in brilliantly as a centre on the top two lines. Pageau is a pending UFA and the team’s top point-getter (15) and goal scorer (11). Connor Brown has been excellent and productive while man-child Brady Tkachuk has picked up his production lately.
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BOTTOM SIX FORWARDS GRADE: C+
The Senators would be more consistent with their bottom six forwards if they could settle on lines and personnel. With so many players being rotated in after being called up from AHL Belleville, then sent back down as players return from injury, the lines have been a mixed bag with mixed results. At times Smith has received a strong energy surge from such fourth-line players as Filip Chlapik and J.C. Beaudin. Veteran Bobby Ryan has found himself as a bottom six winger when he hasn’t been a healthy scratch, along with Mikkel Boedker.
DEFENCE GRADE: C
The Senators have had their challenges on the blue-line, which figures to bear the brunt of attacks from opponents that are deeper and more talented than Ottawa’s. The Senators’ brightest star on defence, Thomas Chabot, has generally been paired with newcomer Nikita Zaitsev, although Smith broke up the tandem briefly last week. Dylan DeMelo and Mark Borowiecki have been rock steady while veteran Ron Hainsey has been tasked with trying to bring along raw rookie Erik Brannstrom. The blue-line has contributed very little offensively. That Borowiecki, a pounding, stay-home type, leads the group in goals with two, is telling. Brannstrom has yet to score and Chabot, the power-play quarterback, had just one heading into Monday’s game. As a group, the blue-line has contributed four goals.
GOALIE GRADE: B
Goaltending has been a bright spot for the Senators throughout the first quarter, with Anders Nilsson, the supposed backup, stepping up to enjoy an exceptional opening 10 games. To have a record of 5-4-1 on a rebuilding team is unusual by itself. Nilsson’s other numbers are stunning: a 2.76 goals-against average and .925 save percentage. Craig Anderson, the 38-year-old mainstay, has also battled hard despite a 3.31 goals-against average and .891 save percentage. Anderson is 3-7-0. It will be interesting to see if the tending holds up and if Anderson, a pending UFA, is moved at the deadline or prior to it.
MVP: Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Most Improved Player: Nick Paul
Best Defensive Player: Dylan DeMelo
Most Physical Player: Mark Borowiecki (2nd in NHL with 81 hits)
