Amid the excitement of draft night the answer is almost always the same: A high pick inevitably says he’s ready to jump straight into the NHL right after being presented with his first sweater.
The reality, of course, is something different.
Only nine first-round picks from the 2015 draft class currently remain at training camps with a week to go before the start of the regular season. They won’t all survive the final cuts, either.
The latest to be sent packing was defenceman Thomas Chabot, who received a lovely parting gift from the Ottawa Senators on Wednesday morning — an entry-level contract (complete with $92,500 signing bonus).
Chabot, the 18th overall pick, made a strong impression at Sens camp and stuck around a little bit longer than the organization originally thought he might. Now he’ll be expected to play big minutes with the QMJHL’s Saint John Sea Dogs and compete for a spot on the Canadian world junior team.
“He’s one of those kids you could probably keep around for nine or 10 games if you really wanted to,” Senators GM Bryan Murray told reporters. “But I think it serves his purpose better to go back and get with his team, and get really playing an important role.”
Outside of top picks Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, who arguably could have handled the NHL game as 17-year-olds, it’s a consideration that needs to be taken in each individual case.
Teams often choose to delay the decision by seeing how a prospect handles real game situations — with each player able to dress nine times in the regular season before the first year of his entry-level deal kicks in.
Arizona’s Dylan Strome, Carolina’s Noah Hanifin, Colorado’s Mikko Rantanen and Florida’s Lawson Crouse are among those expected to receive the extended October tryout before having their futures determined (although Hanifin is a virtual lock to stick around with the Hurricanes all year).
The status of two other recent first-rounders — New Jersey Devils forward Pavel Zacha and New York Islanders forward Matthew Barzal — is less clear with NHL teams needing to set their season-opening rosters by Oct. 6.
The remaining exhibition games loom large for those teenagers.
Noah Juulsen, selected 26th overall by Montreal, is the player least likely to stay with his team beyond the start of the season. He’s been recovering from a concussion throughout training camp and will make his exhibition debut against Ottawa on Thursday night.
Just as there is no perfect system for identifying talent to draft, there is no one way to develop players. Those on NCAA scholarships aren’t even permitted to attend NHL training camps and the list of places beyond college hockey and junior hockey that 2015 first-rounders will play this season includes Sweden and the KHL.
Even though a player will occasionally surprise by cracking a NHL roster sooner than expected, most organizations err on the side of caution. Chabot, for example, showed plenty of poise while playing alongside Erik Karlsson in the pre-season and had the Sens management team legitimately excited.
However, he was still sent back to junior with a week to spare.
“The way he handled himself — I was very pleased,” said Murray.
As much as top prospects yearn to make a strong first impression, they usually need two or three camps before it becomes a lasting one.
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A look at the current status of the 2015 NHL first-round draft picks (with draft position in parenthesis):
Still in NHL camp: Connor McDavid, Edmonton (1); Jack Eichel, Buffalo (2); Dylan Strome, Arizona (3); Noah Hanifin, Carolina (5); Pavel Zacha, New Jersey (6); Mikko Rantanen, Colorado (10); Lawson Crouse, Florida (11); Matthew Barzal, N.Y. Islanders (16); Noah Juulsen, Montreal (26).
Playing elsewhere: Mitch Marner, Toronto (4); Ivan Provorov, Philadelphia (7); Zach Werenski, Columbus (8); Timo Meier, San Jose (9); Denis Guryanov, Dallas (12); Jakub Zboril, Boston (13); Jake DeBrusk, Boston (14); Zachary Senyshyn, Boston (15); Kyle Connor, Winnipeg (17); Thomas Chabot, Ottawa (18); Evgeny Svechnikov, Detroit (19); Joel Eriksson Ek, Minnesota (20); Colin White, Ottawa (21); Ilya Samsonov, Washington (22); Brock Boeser, Vancouver (23); Travis Konecny, Philadelphia (24); Jack Roslovic, Winnipeg (25); Jacob Larsson, Anaheim (27); Anthony Beauvillier, N.Y. Islanders (28); Gabriel Carlsson, Columbus (29); Nick Merkley, Arizona (30).
