I don’t pretend to be an analytics aficionado, but the Maple Leafs numbers the past two weeks while they’ve squandered what once looked to be a sure playoff spot—and even home ice in the first round—are hard to ignore. It’s been, to say the least, a disaster.
All season long, the numbers community has been prophesying Toronto’s demise. It took a while for things to catch up to the Buds, but #fancystats devotees have been proven right. Again.
On March 13 after beating the Kings, the Leafs were sitting 2nd in the Atlantic Division (and dreaming of home ice), three points up on the Lightning and a comfortable seven points ahead of the Flyers who were holding down the second wild-card spot (although Philly had three games in hand). That 3-2 win over—and if you don’t believe this, you’ve got your head in the sand—the Cup contenders from L.A. had Buds fans all a twitter—figuratively and literally. But seven games later, Leafs Nation is up in arms, and, for some, flummoxed as to what has happened.
Yes, No. 1 netminder Jonathan Bernier tweaked a groin, leaving Jame Reimer to carry the load for five contests. He faltered, posting a miserable .870 save percentage that had his coach refusing to offer any compliments. But it wasn’t all his fault. And that’s been proven true upon Bernier’s return this week. This is not a team that plays anything even resembling winning hockey in today’s NHL.
With that in mind, here are seven stats to put into light seven straight losses (beware, only 42.8 percent are “advanced”):
PDO
It predicts/calculates how lucky a team is. It’s flawed, to be sure—a team with a great goalie and talent from the blueline out can post top-notch save and shooting percentages. No one would say Boston and St. Louis are winning with luck, and they sit second and fourth in PDO this season. But the Leafs are fifth overall in that category. They’ve lived and died with Bernier’s feats and counterattacking all season.
But these seven losses have shown that, when one—or both—falters, a team with a high PDO will as well. While Toronto sits at a cumulative 101.3 for the season, they’ve posted single-game PDOs of (beginning with the Caps loss on March 16) 94.8, 96.4 96.0, 97.2, 96.2, 101.8 and 92.1 for an average of 96.3. Granted, a seven-game sample is small one, and not one the analytics community would use to point to a trend. But, in this case, it will.
CORSI%
You’d prefer to use Fenwick For Percenatge, but over a small sample Corsi% is the way to go. Both can be a bit confounding for the uninitiated. Essentially, they measure possession, with Corsi% taking into account all shot attempts at even strength. And while all shots are not created equal, they’re the best we’ve got to measure possession right now.
For the season, the Leafs rank 29th with a 42.3 percent Corsi% (the Kings are the top team at 57.1%). Basically, the Leafs are out-possessed by about 15 percent every game. That ain’t good. Over the past seven games, the number is about 47.7 percent. An uptick, yes, but still poor. Throw in some questionable tending and an inability to capitalize on/create chances, and you’re screwed.
KESSEL
The Leafs have been living and dying with Kessel’s streaky scoring all season. When he’s going, so is his team. He has not been going the past couple weeks. Toronto’s former Hart Trophy candidate has exactly two goals and four points during this slide. Respectable, I guess. But not the point-per-game-plus guy he’s been for much of the season.
QoC
This is a deceptive one. Quality of Competition exposes every team’s weak points. That is, if you’ve got supposed top players on the ice night in and night out against actual top players from the competition, you’re in trouble.
This season guys like Toews, Backes and Crosby rank in the top 10 in the quality of players they face. Among blueliners, you’ll find names like Chara, Weber and Kronwall at the top. But you know who ranks above all those defencemen? Phaneuf and Gunarsson. With all due respect, neither are in the class of the other three (or quite a few others). And if those are the two the Leafs are rolling out against top competition, it’s no wonder they’re on this slide—especially when the goaltending and/or counterattack falters.
PP
Toronto has been thriving on the power play this season—currently fourth overall at a 20.6 percent clip. But in the past seven games, that number has plummeted. The Leafs are 4 for 23 with the man advantage during this streak, just over 17 percent. Not good when you’re struggling to score. You have to be better if you hope to win.
PK
The penalty kill has been a sore spot all season. The Leafs are 28th overall at just 78.1 percent—a far cry from the 80 that Scotty Bowman always preached as a necessity. It’s been even worse during this slide. Toronto has given up seven goals on 24 chances when a man down—a 70.8 percent rate.
So while the Leafs haven’t been taking more penalties than their competition in the grand scheme of things, they’ve been giving up nearly 13 percent more power play goals of late. Again, not good. Obviously.
92
That’s the average number of points (including pro-rating last year’s 48-game campaign) needed to make the playoffs in the East the past five seasons. At 80 points with seven games to play, the Leafs basically have to win out to have a chance—and hope two of Columbus, Detroit and Washington (all with two games in hand) falter down the stretch. In short it’s not good, Leafs fans.
But it was fun while it lasted. For people on both sides of the argument.