In September, the idea of Steven Stamkos choosing to become a member of the Toronto Maple Leafs didn’t make a whole lot of sense, at least from a hockey perspective.
The Tampa Bay Lightning were a very good NHL team. The Leafs were awful, with their biggest stars wearing suits, not skates.
Now? Well, things have changed to some degree. What was dismissed as absurd is now being accepted by those late to the party as possible.
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Watch the Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning live on Sportsnet Ontario, Tuesday at 7:30 p.m. ET
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The Leafs aren’t yet world beaters, that’s for sure. But they have played better after a horrible start than many believed they would, and first year coach Mike Babcock has already left a strong imprint on the hockey club. Talk to other coaches and general managers in the league, and they’ll tell you the Leafs look like a very different squad this season, with more structure and defensive discipline.
Babcock doesn’t yet have much elite talent to work with, but next year he should have a little more. Skilled centre William Nylander is leading the AHL in scoring and, if he wasn’t just 19 and in his first full year of North American pro hockey, would probably already by playing in the NHL. Puck wizard Mitch Marner, meanwhile, is putting up big numbers again with the OHL London Knights after being the fourth overall pick in last summer’s NHL draft, and it’s almost a certainly he’ll be with the Leafs next season because of his eye-catching talent and because he’s not eligible to play in the minors.
Nylander and Marner, needless to say, are the kind of high skill players that players like Stamkos want around them. The Leaf prospect cupboard in general looks a little deeper than was the case a year ago, and the Marlies are one of the best AHL clubs with one of the youngest teams.
Current Leafs like former first rounders Morgan Rielly and Nazem Kadri, meanwhile, have made noteworthy strides at the NHL level under Babcock. So if Stamkos was looking for reasons to believe there might truly be an upside in Toronto, he has a few now.
The contract negotiations with the Bolts, such as they are or aren’t, have become a major topic of speculation and rumours, and with Stamkos in Toronto tonight to face the Leafs, his future is going to be the major storyline of the night.
He won’t say the idea of coming home to play as an unrestricted free agent next summer is a consideration, of course, because he can’t, and nor should he. He’s the captain of the Lightning, a team that if it becomes healthy could challenge for the Eastern Conference crown this season, but a hockey club that isn’t even in a playoff position right now after a mediocre start to the 2015-16 NHL season.
A much-needed win last night in Columbus with five regulars out, including Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson, will help. Stamkos, with his assigned position a daily topic of conversation, played centre between Vladislav Namestnikov and Nikita Kucherov.
If you believe playing centre or the wing is a major bone of contention for Stamkos, this matters. He didn’t get a point, had one shot, played 20:40, was 7-17 in the faceoff circle and had a shot at an empty net blocked.
He’s scoring at less than a 30-goal pace and headed for his least productive season since his rookie campaign in 2008-09. He hasn’t scored in nine games, or in 12 of his past 13.
That’s insufficient production for his current $7.5-million cap hit, and he’ll be looking for a lot more as an unrestricted free agent next summer, probably something north of $9 million per season. Maybe $10 million per. Maybe more.
The Lightning, it seems clear, are reluctant to venture down that path. Would the Leafs?
It’s an interesting question. The Leafs are wary of cap-busting deals, having just managed to rid themselves of David Clarkson and Phil Kessel, and are well below the salary cap, although the actual amount of salaries they’re paying out is well above.
Stamkos would be a marquee name for a franchise that isn’t attracting as many eyeballs on TV as it once did. So you have to believe, with Rogers ($5.2 billion invested in national NHL rights) and Bell (broadcasters of 50 per cent of Leaf regional games) making the decision, that will matter for something.
He’s also only 25, which means by his 30th birthday, players like Nylander and Marner will be approaching their prime years. A seven-year contract, the max any team other than Tampa could offer, would be more than half over.
Unlike their pursuit of Mike Babcock in which the Leafs simply blew everyone else out of the water with an unprecedented $50 million offer, Toronto is restricted to some degree by the salary cap. Still, would they be inclined to make Stamkos the highest paid player in the game, the first $14 million annual cap hit?
And even if they were so inclined, is he worth that money? Is anyone?
At a time when scoring is dropping by the minute – a wild 7-5 game on Saturday between Edmonton and the Rangers was fun and all, but last night produced another evening of five games with an average of less than five goals per game – the value of a pure goal-scorer seems to be up for some debate. The NHL is again talking about reducing the size of goaltending equipment, but that’s unlikely to make any difference, if it happens at all.
Right now, 24 NHLers have more goals than Stamkos. But of the 10 highest paid forwards in the league, only three have more goals than the Lightning forward has.
So how do you put a value on the suffocated art of putting a puck in the net?
All this said, the Leaf organization has coveted Stamkos from afar for three years, wondering if he might come free in the summer of ’16. He can make more money in Toronto on and off the ice than anywhere else, and he can be a bigger star in Toronto than anywhere else.
That may not be what he wants. But it may, and the Leafs are an organization that looks more appealing today than three months ago. Maybe he could win here, too.
If Brendan Shanahan and Co. are trying to sell Stamkos on the idea of coming home, they’re doing a commendable job.
