By MARK SPECTOR and MIKE BROPHY
sportsnet.ca
From the crease to the courts, it is shaping up to be a newsworthy year in the National Hockey League.
Our NHL columnists – Mike Brophy and Mark Spector – identify 10 of the most interesting storylines heading into this season.
A dynasty in Pittsburgh?
SPECTOR: The Penguins have Sidney Crosby and Jordan Staal signed through 2013, as well as Evgeni Malkin, Brooks Orpik and Marc-Andre Fleury through 2014. They’ve been to the past two Cup finals, and enter the 2009-10 season as defending Stanley Cup champions.
Is this the next NHL dynasty? With Crosby, Malkin and Fleury, why shouldn’t this club have an excellent chance every year for the next four seasons at least? Parity today is stronger than it ever was in the days of the old Canadiens, Islanders or Oilers clubs. If the Pens can win, say, four Cups in five years, it might be the most impressive feat yet.
Is the West Still the Best?
BROPHY: For a few seasons the Western Conference has been considered the NHL’s best.
The Detroit Red Wings have been a super power, winning the Cup two years ago and making it back to the final last season.
The Anaheim Ducks won the Cup three years ago and appear to have positioned themselves to be in the hunt again this year. The San Jose Sharks are perennial contenders who just need to learn to be successful in the playoffs while the Vancouver Canucks, Calgary Flames and Chicago Blackhawks have all made great strides.
A Western Conference team has won the Presidents’ Trophy as regular-season champ in 12 of the past 14 seasons.
But upon closer review, it must be noted the Eastern Conference has produced two of the past four Stanley Cup champions and four of the past six. The Pittsburgh Penguins are the reigning champions while the Washington Capitals and Philadelphia Flyers are considered by many to be serious threats this season. The New Jersey Devils are always in the hunt while the Buffalo Sabres, Carolina Hurricanes and Montreal Canadiens each have the potential to make their mark.
The Eastern Conference has produced the past three MVPs, scoring champions and Vezina Trophy winners as best goaltender. And Sidney Crosby, Alexander Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin reside in the East.
It’s time to give the Eastern Conference its due.
The Olympics
BROPHY: This is a double-edged sword. On one hand you’ll have many of the best players in the NHL putting their best foot forward every night in the first half of the season trying to catch the eye of those picking the teams for their various countries.
Here in Canada there are only a handful of players that are a lock to make the team.
So will the uncertainty bring out the best in bubble players such as Joe Thornton, Vincent Lecavalier, Dion Phaneuf and Eric Staal, amongst others? They’ll be playing their hearts out hoping Steve Yzerman and Co. like what they see.
The flip side is an Olympic year means a compressed schedule to fit 82 regular-season games in with a two-week layoff at mid-season. That could lead to injuries because players aren’t getting proper rest between games. And, of course, there is the very real risk of players being injured during the Olympic Games.
All-world goalie Dominik Hasek didn’t last 10 minutes at the 2006 Games in Turin when he injured his right adductor muscle and that, obviously, affected the outcome of the Ottawa Senators’ season when he was unable to return to action.
NHL coaches and GMs keep their fingers crossed during the Games praying it won’t be their player that goes down.
The Heatley Effect
SPECTOR: We’ve always known that players ultimately call the shots on where they play, but what about a Canadian kid who spurns Ottawa and Edmonton and ends up exactly where he desires to be: playing in relative obscurity for a team with a legit Cup chance?
The only cost to Heatley was a summer of looking like a jerk, and a lot of booing when the Sharks play all of seven games north of the border this season. Frankly, it seems too easy. Will Heatley’s move start an avalanche of contracted players heading for warm, sunny landings?
Rising in the Desert? Are You Kidding?
SPECTOR: The Phoenix Coyotes are a living, breathing thesis paper on what depths a professional franchise can plumb if they are perfectly mishandled from start to finish. They played pre-season games in Glendale to less than 2,000 fans, and will set new attendance lows this season to be sure.
If we thought the NHL’s due diligence wasn’t shakier than a Boots del Biaggio IOU, we’d say this could shape the way future franchises are handled by the league. Instead, the Coyotes could be a template for how to get out of a lousy market and a bad lease.
The lifeblood of an organization is advertisers, and because the Coyotes are mired in bankruptcy proceedings, no right-minded sponsor or fan would commit commerce with them.
The team will probably lose $50 million this year, and worse, be a constant source of embarrassment as Canadian and U.S. media comes through to rubberneck at this car wreck all season long.
We love stories like this.
John Tavares vs. Victor Hedman
BROPHY: Two great young players to be sure, but which one comes out on top? This is a debate that won’t be decided in Year One.
Tavares unquestionably has a better shot at instant success with the New York Islanders, simply because they have so little up front and he is their go-to guy. Hedman, however, will play on a better team with much more depth and although he’ll be broken in more slowly, the expectations aren’t as high and he’ll be able to find his footing perhaps a little easier.
There is pressure on Tavares to save the Islanders and although they’d never admit it, the team cannot afford for him to take too long to be an impact player. Hedman, on the other hand, is an important piece of the puzzle for a team trying to bounce back from a disastrous year, but there is no urgency for him to take control of the team, not with the likes of Vinny Lecavalier, Martin St-Louis, Steven Stamkos and Mattias Ohlund on board.
Can Brian Burke save the Maple Leafs?
BROPHY: There is no denying Toronto Maple Leafs GM Brian Burke makes an impact wherever he works. A year ago, Burke was hired away from the Anaheim Ducks, with whom he won the Stanley Cup in 2006-07, in hopes he’d be the first Maple Leafs GM to bring the Stanley Cup to Toronto since 1967.
Nine men have tried, including Punch Imlach who was the architect of the last Toronto championship team, and failed.
Burke has made significant strides in a very short time, pumping up Toronto’s defence and making the team tougher and faster. If their goaltending comes through, the Leafs will most certainly be in the hunt for the playoffs.
Burke has concentrated on taking a big step this season before taking aim at the Cup. But he did make an enormous exception when he sacrificed two first-round draft picks and a second-rounder to Boston to get young scorer Phil Kessel. Did he pay too high a price? Was it a sign that he is getting anxious to do more than just make the playoffs this season? Or is it simply a case that Burke doesn’t have a set timetable and will do anything in his power to make his team better?
Burke is on the right track, but to ultimately be judged a success, he must get this team to the Stanley Cup final before his tenure is up.
Do Ray Emery and the Flyers Deserve Each Other?
SPECTOR: How many great goalies have been traded, signed or drafted in the past decade, while the Philadelphia Flyers have spun their wheels with the likes of Brian Boucher, Robert Esche, and Roman (The Bipolar Goaler) Cechmanek?
Now the shift has been made from Martin Biron to Ray Emery, whose lack of professionalism tore apart the dressing room apart Ottawa.
Is this the stabilizing force that will put the Flyers over the top?
Or has Philly once again watched a guy like Nikolai Khabibulin sign elsewhere, while they take another Flyer on an unproven entity?
Where is the Salary Cap Going?
BROPHY: Many thought when the economy crashed last year the cap would take a hit, but it didn’t. In fact, it went up $100,000 to $56.8 million (all figures US) this year. The economy appears to be in serious recovery mode, but that does not mean the salary cap will continue to trend up.
We’ll have a better idea of how things could go in the next week or two when the amount players pay into escrow is announced. Last season escrow was 13.5 per cent in the first half of the year and was raised to 22.5 per cent in the second half.
If the players only get a small percentage of their money back, it will be an indication that the league’s revenues did not match expectations. If they get a larger percentage back it would be a sign things are in decent shape.
So far there has been no indication any team has been hit hard at the gate. Teams that generally don’t draw well are those that charge the least for ticket prices. When they don’t do well, it doesn’t have a crushing effect on the entire league. Also, two of the league’s most important and larger market teams, Chicago and Boston, enjoyed resurgence last season.
If, at some point in the season, it becomes apparent the cap could go down next year, there might be some players who will be inclined to seek out long-term extensions to be on the safe side. There will be others, however, who will look at the improving economy and might be willing to take a short-term deal hoping they’ll be able to cash in for more when the economy takes a few more steps toward recovery.
Teams looking to dump large salaries in the event the cap looks like it will go down might find fewer trading partners.
Is There Still a Market For Half-Milers?
SPECTOR: Peter Forsberg is hurt already, with a stress fracture in his foot, but still says he’d like another shot at an NHL roster. Mats Sundin says he’s retiring. We’ll believe that when his retirement papers arrive at the NHL’s Central Registry.
Will the desperate Colorado Avalanche court Forsberg, then perhaps ring Joe Sakic around New Year’s to see if retirement suits him?
Will agent J.P. Barry be shopping Mats come January?
You would think that NHL GMs would be wary of coughing up big dough for players who prefer to play a 40-game season, rather than bother with those pesky training camps and November trips to Edmonton. But the only time we have truly seen Scott Niedermayer look old was when he missed half a season two years ago. Ditto for Teemu Selanne.
Still, there is a GM born every minute. Some sucker will offer big money for Forsberg or some other elder on his last legs.
Nobody said these guys were smart.
