With a new crew on offence, what will the Patriots do?
We’ll start with a few truths before we get to the uncertainties. First: The New England Patriots will win the AFC East again this season—for the ninth time in the past 10 years. Second: The Patriots will do it with a prolific offence that finishes among the top 10 in yards per game—for the ninth time in the past 10 years. Third: Anybody who tells you they know how Bill Belichick is going to accomplish these feats is lying.
Trying to call Belichick’s hand before he lays it down is a mug’s game. He’s tinkered with Tom Brady’s targets so many times in the past decade that evolution is expected—it’s the specifics that are a mystery. He’s won Super Bowls with cast-off receivers, and lost one with the greatest deep threat of all time. He’s revolutionized the use of tight ends in the passing game and relied more upon the run than anyone seems to give him credit for. And he’s going to do something different this year, too. Because his offence is almost completely overhauled from last season, sure—but also because that’s just what Bill Belichick does.
So what will the fourth (or is it fifth?) iteration of the Brady-led Patriots offence look like? Here are our favourite possibilities.
1. Backs to the Future: You think first of Brady, as you should. But the Patriots actually led the NFL in rushing touchdowns in 2012. In Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden (as well as LeGarrette Blount, if he makes the team), they have bruisers more than capable of running through the holes the Pats offensive line creates. Meanwhile, second-year back Shane Vereen showed off his tacky hands and open-field elusiveness during his three-TD playoff party against the Houston Texans. This look is a classic Belichick pick-your-poison plan that recalls his two-tight-end sets when Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski were still a free man and an injury-free man. Ridley or Bolden will force defences to play up to stop the power runs while Vereen can flit about the backfield, finding space in which to catch screen passes and motor upfield.
2. Plug ’n Play: If Belichick’s getting lazy in his old age, he certainly has the personnel to just insert new cogs into last year’s machine. Receiver Danny Amendola is basically a younger, faster (but more breakable) Wes Welker. Nobody will ever confuse Jake Ballard for Hernandez or Gronkowski on downfield patterns, but he is an effective blocker and proved his red zone chops as a Giant with Eli Manning. Zach Sudfeld, though, is another matter. The undrafted rookie out of Nevada was plagued by injuries during his college career (he had six surgeries as a student, one of them after a devastating knee injury that gave him a sixth year of eligibility) but naturally strolled right into a major role in an offence desperate for a tight end who can play vertically. And yes, they’re already calling him “Baby Gronk,” though he’ll fill Hernandez’s “move” role when Gronkowski returns. Toss in Vereen in the third-down role opened by the departure of Danny Woodhead and one of two rookie receivers—Kenbrell Thompkins or Aaron Dobson—in the outside receiver role played by Brandon Lloyd in 2012, and the Pats could ride replacement parts to another deep playoff run.
3. What the Hell: There are so many movable parts on the Pats roster that there’s every possibility some of their special packages will feature a few wild formations. How about five-receiver sets featuring three rookie burners all going deep? An empty backfield with Dobson, Thompkins and Josh Boyce (also set to make the team) to the outside, and Amendola and Julian Edelman playing the middle would give Brady the sort of deep looks the Pats have lacked since Randy Moss left town. It’s also easy to see Vereen lined-up wide (he’s already done so in pre-season action) with Ridley and Bolden in the backfield. And of course, there’s also the ultimate wild card to play: If the Pats so choose, they could run a two-quarterback goal-line offence with both Brady and Tim Tebow behind centre and two TEs as blockers. Defences must prepare for a direct snap to Tebow followed by a powerful goal-line surge. And a direct snap to Brady leaves Tebow in as an emergency blocker or target out of the backfield, and finds Amendola or another receiver almost certainly in a one-on-one to the outside. The greatest and worst quarterbacks in the NFL combining their strengths to create an unstoppable short-yardage formation. You know Belichick’s at least given it some thought, if only to imagine how hard he’d smirk at the media afterwards if it worked.