Greg Brady: Thinks there’s too much out of Cabrera’s control to do what no one ever has
In 144 years of Major League Baseball, nobody has won back-to-back Triple Crown titles. That is about to change. Two months into this season, Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera is on pace to repeat, spectacularly.
Back in 1931, Yankees great Lou Gehrig set the American League RBI record with 184. Cabrera is on pace for 198. He’s also set to smack 50 home runs for the first time in his career, score 140 runs and reach 250-plus hits—if he does that, he’ll flirt with .400. In all, he was leading the AL in nine offensive categories towards the end of May, many by a healthy margin. The only Triple Crown stat Cabrera wasn’t leading was homers, trailing Baltimore’s Chris Davis by one. And while Davis is a nice player, he’s no Miguel Cabrera.
The Tigers superstar has missed just two games in the past two seasons combined. And he’s got Prince Fielder cleaning up behind him. Home runs will be the toughest category for a guy whose biggest concern is getting on base and driving in runs. But when you’re as skilled as Cabrera, there’s also every possibility he just starts swinging for the fences once the other categories are wrap-ped up. If he decides to do that, history will be his.
Jim Lang: Believes the Tigers slugger can get the job done and make history
Miguel Cabrera is the best hitter in baseball, of that there’s no doubt. But there’s so much he can’t control over the next 100 games, and that’s why he won’t win the Triple Crown again. One slump in any of the three categories ends his chances. Go 12 games without a homer, and that’s that. Go 10-for-50 over a couple of weeks, same thing. And while Cabrera’s been incredibly healthy during his career, he needs his teammates to stay in the lineup as well. If Austin Jackson goes down, there go the RBI. And if it’s Prince Fielder, Cabrera’s going to see a lot more balls. He walked 108 times in 2011, but just 66 times last season. Part of that was Fielder’s presence behind him, and part of it was opposing managers making dumb decisions. This year, Cabrera’s on pace for 90 free passes.
It’s also a safe bet Detroit manager Jim Leyland will play Cabrera less in September—regardless of any Triple Crown implications—if the Tigers have the AL Central in hand. He’s played a ton of baseball in the past year, especially when you add in the World Baseball Classic, playoffs and Grapefruit League. And though his Tiger post-seasons haven’t been bad, they haven’t been best-hitter-on-the-planet, either. Cabrera grinding out at-bats after the division is clinched won’t happen this year, and with that goes his crown.
This story originally appeared in Sportsnet magazine. Subscribe here.