TORONTO – In baseball, four years is a long time. Back in 2016, Troy Tulowitzki was among the American League’s best shortstops. Michael Saunders was an all-star. Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio had just been drafted.
The Blue Jays were contenders that summer, on their way to a second playoff appearance in as many years. Ahead of the trade deadline they were clear buyers, making a series of trades designed to improve their chances of winning it all. In the weeks leading up to July 31, they added pitching, position players and even prospects.
Four years later, that 2016 season remains an important reference point for a Blue Jays team that finds itself contending once again after three summers as sellers. It’s the only time this front office has been a mid-season buyer, so the trades the Blue Jays made that summer are instructive as we look ahead. To some extent, they offer a possible roadmap for 2020.
Yet those 2016 trades only go so far in foreshadowing what’s ahead. If anything, the Blue Jays may now be aiming higher, with more focus on long-term additions if at all possible.
To start, here’s a full accounting of the significant 2016 trades made by GM Ross Atkins & Co.:
• Acquired reliever Jason Grilli and cash from the Braves for pitching prospect Sean Ratcliffe.
• Acquired reliever Joaquin Benoit from the Mariners for reliever Drew Storen and cash.
• Acquired outfielder Melvin Upton Jr. and cash from the Padres pitching prospect Hansel Rodriguez.
• Acquired pitcher Mike Bolsinger from the Dodgers for pitcher Jesse Chavez.
• Acquired starter Scott Feldman from the Astros for pitching prospect Lupe Chavez.
• Acquired starter Francisco Liriano, catching prospect Reese McGuire and outfield prospect Harold Ramirez from the Pirates for starter Drew Hutchison.
• Acquired catcher Dioner Navarro from the White Sox for pitching prospect Colton Turner.
First of all, that’s a lot of trades. It’d be a surprise if any team was quite that active this year as the COVID-19 pandemic continues. With the benefit of hindsight, we can also say that none of the prospects the Blue Jays surrendered four years ago have been missed. But setting all of that aside, some of those trades are worth keeping in mind ahead of this summer’s Aug. 31 deadline.
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In 2016, the Blue Jays made two challenge trades, exchanging Storen for Benoit in a deal that worked out well and swapping Chavez for Bolsinger in a deal that didn’t help much. Four years later, that same type of trade could return. Evaluating minor-league players is more challenging than usual with no games, so Atkins could see those big-leaguer for big-leaguer trades take place this summer.
“More than likely you’re going to see deals that are more traditional that people often call just baseball deals,” the GM said last week.
Beyond that, the 2016 Blue Jays showed a willingness to buy low on players. This doesn’t tell the full story, of course, but at the time the Blue Jays acquired them, Grilli, Benoit and Liriano had ERAs of 5.29, 5.18 and 5.46, respectively.
In a way, the recent acquisition of Daniel Vogelbach seems reminiscent of those moves. Like Grilli, Benoit and Liriano, he struggled badly before the Blue Jays acquired him at a bargain price. In the five days remaining before the deadline, it wouldn’t be surprising to see more buy-low deals.
On the position player side, the Blue Jays were largely set in 2016, so they focused on marginal upgrades, adding a speedy extra outfielder in Upton and a backup catcher in Navarro. Four years later, that same approach could work again. While most starting spots are accounted for, the Blue Jays could certainly stand to upgrade over the Brandon Drury-Joe Panik section of their bench.
With those examples in mind, the 2016 deadline offers some clues as to how this front office will operate as a buyer, but the comparison only goes so far. Then, the Blue Jays mainly acquired rental players on the brink of free agency. Now, that might not have to be the case.
As Atkins said last week, “We’re thinking about making this foundation stronger for 2020 and 2021 and 2022.”
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If the Blue Jays decide to buy this year, they’ll have the prospects to make meaningful trades. The farm system now ranks fourth among the 30 MLB teams, according to Baseball America, up from 24th entering the 2016 season. That’s a major difference that’s sure to impact the club’s decision making.
Because sure, they can trade marginal prospects for down-on-their-luck rentals again if needed, but their prospect depth also opens up options. As the Blue Jays’ 40-man roster gets stronger and protecting players becomes harder, there’s more reason to package them together in trades.
To be sure, the Blue Jays are considering everything, pending free agents included. Ideally, though, they’d like to add to their core with players who can contribute long-term.
In that sense, the Hutchison for Liriano, McGuire and Ramirez deal is worth keeping in mind over the next week. Not only did Liriano pitch well down the stretch in 2016, but he was also under team control the following year. In the years that followed, McGuire became a useful big leaguer, too. If a comparable acquisition becomes available this summer, the Blue Jays would welcome the chance to add players for 2021 and beyond.
Of course it’s possible the Blue Jays will add no one. Or it’s possible they’ll add a rental player or two and nothing more. Yet with five days remaining before the deadline, the idea of adding players who can help for years rather than weeks has significant appeal.
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