A day before the Toronto Blue Jays were set to open their post-season, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was asked how he was feeling. He replied that, both mentally and physically, he was “pretty good.”
Then, in the very next breath, the Blue Jays slugger took the attention off of himself.
“The most important thing for me, it’s winning,” Guerrero Jr. told reporters. “We’ve got to find a way to win regardless of how I feel. For me, that’s the only thing in my mind, that we’ve got to find a way to win games.”
Manager John Schneider went a similar route when asked how he would define success for his team in the playoffs: “Winning,” he said.
That’s what the Blue Jays will be looking to do in the post-season for the first time in nine years, trying to snap a seven-game playoff losing streak as they face off against the New York Yankees for the very first time outside of the regular season. It all starts with Game 1 of the ALDS on Saturday at 4:08 p.m. ET / 1:08 p.m. PT at Rogers Centre (all games are on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+).
Watch Blue Jays in ALDS on Sportsnet
The Toronto Blue Jays will look to close out the ALDS against New York at Yankee Stadium on Wednesday. Catch the action on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+, starting at 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT.
Broadcast schedule
On Thursday night, the Blue Jays learned their opponent when the Yankees eliminated the Boston Red Sox in the deciding Game 3 of their wild-card series. On Friday, Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman was tabbed with the Game 1 start, while the Yankees will send out 2024 AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil.
The Blue Jays head into this series coming off five days of rest, while the Yankees had just a single day off after their wild-card bout went the distance. New York ace Max Fried pitched the wild-card opener, and the three-time all-star will get the start in Game 2 on Sunday afternoon at Rogers Centre.
While Toronto comes in well-rested and the Yankees less so, what’s ahead is a best-of-five between teams that finished the regular season with identical 94-68 records. The Blue Jays clinched the AL East since they won the head-to-head series 8-5. But the biggest games are still to come.
Here’s a closer look at the ALDS matchup:
What’s working for the Blue Jays: Toronto’s depth has been on display all season long, and it'll need that to continue in the post-season — especially given Bo Bichette’s absence as he recovers from a left knee sprain that's kept him on the shelf since early September.
The Blue Jays have survived without Bichette, and they had the best record in the American League in part because they haven’t had to rely on a few key players, with different heroes showing up and punching above their weight. They’ve grinded their way to wins thanks in part to long plate appearances, taking walks and wearing down opposing team’s pitching staffs.
Alejandro Kirk, Ernie Clement, Nathan Lukes and Daulton Varsho all came up with big at-bats down the stretch, helping the Blue Jays win their last four regular-season games to punch a ticket straight to the ALDS.
That depth includes relying on players to come off the bench and have a big impact. The Blue Jays ranked sixth league-wide in pinch-hitting plate appearances and posted a collective .737 OPS, led by Myles Straw, Davis Schneider and Lukes. Those off-the-bench additions proved clutch over the course of the season: Schneider drew some big walks, Lukes homered off the bench and Straw made highlight-reel defensive plays.
And while nobody would put Guerrero Jr. in the unlikely hero category, the slugger who’s struggled at the plate this season has been particularly successful at Yankee Stadium, where the series shifts for Games 3 and 4, if necessary. In the Bronx, Guerrero had a 1.318 OPS (regular season: .848) and .455 average (.292 in the regular season). He shrugged that off, though, as he told reporters: “It just happens that I do well against them.”
It just happens that’s also very good news for the Blue Jays, who could use Guerrero’s star power to add to their depth.
What’s working for the Yankees: New York’s bats are the definition of dangerous. They had an MLB regular-season-leading .787 OPS and 274 home runs (83 more than the Blue Jays). This is a team that strikes out, walks and homers — a lot. Maybe that’s why Giancarlo Stanton admired his hit in Game 3 for a good long while and trotted to first before he realized the ball had stayed inside the park and then turning on the jets to leg out a double.
New York only recorded two home runs in its three-game wild-card series, but its lefty-heavy lineup plays well against Toronto’s pitching staff, with righties who are prone to giving up long balls. Toronto may need to lean heavily on lefties out of the bullpen, like Brendon Little, Eric Lauer and Mason Fluharty.
The Yankees boast seven players with 20 or more homers in the regular season, led by Judge’s 54. But the best hitter in baseball has struggled in the post-season, with a career playoff batting average of .212 compared to .294 in the regular season. Through three playoff games, Judge’s OPS is .781, down from 1.145 in the regular season.
What’s certain is Judge is very pumped to be here. Standing in right field just after the last out was caught on Thursday to send the Yankees to the ALDS, and just before Frank Sinatra’s New York, New York blasted from the speakers, Judge pumped his fist in celebration and yelled, “Boom!” His bat hasn’t done much of that during the playoffs, but if he gets going, look out.
Potential Achilles heel for the Blue Jays: Closer Jeff Hoffman’s 33 saves ranked fourth-best in the regular season, but the 2024 all-star has struggled down the stretch.
Hoffman earned his final save of the year in Toronto’s second-last game, punching out the final two batters in a very high-pressure situation, but not before giving up a hit and a walk to further ratchet up that intensity. His fastball was dipping below 95 m.p.h through a stretch in September, but he averaged 96.4 m.p.h this season, down a hair from his all-star season a year earlier.
Hoffman sports a 4.37 ERA and he gave up 15 home runs, the second-most of any MLB reliever. Judge has three previous at-bats against him and he’s struck out, walked and homered.
In September, Hoffman pitched 10.2 innings, giving up five hits, one home run and seven walks. He’s been resting since Sept. 26, which bodes well given he’s been one of the busiest closers in baseball, with 68 innings pitched in the regular season.
Potential Achilles heel for the Yankees: The relievers the Yankees like to call on in late innings are headed into Saturday afternoon’s Game 1 on very little rest.
In their three-game set against Boston, the Yankees used three of their key bullpen arms: closer David Bednar pitched in every game, while Fernando Cruz and Devin Williams saw action in two games apiece.
If the Yankees don’t get long outings out of their starters — though they sure did in Game No. 3 from the incredible 24-year-old Cam Schlittler, who pitched eight innings, struck out 12 and walked nobody — the Blue Jays have a chance to take advantage of three relievers who’ve already gone all-out in must-win games earlier in the week.
It’ll all come down to: The solid Blue Jays defence — which ranked fourth MLB-wide in defensive runs saved — against the Yankees’ league-best offence. They say defence wins championships, and Toronto will have to rely on those stalwart fielders to help limit those Yankee bats in every way possible.
